ANALYTICS

Turkey will help de-occupy Crimea, eliminate separatism throughout the post-Soviet space!

15.12.22 17:00


The Crimean issue has in fact already been resolved - the Russian Federation has not and will not have any forces to retain it. Today, the Ukrainian army is striking at the so-called "land corridor to Crimea" organized by the aggressors on the seized Ukrainian territories, which Russia cannot counter. Melitopol, a key point in this "corridor", is under attack today.

 

The bridge in Melitopol, which was used for Russian military transit to occupied Crimea, has been blown up. Also, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the command of the 58th Russian army, which invaded Georgia in 2008, was destroyed. Vengeance has already caught up with the aggressors on Ukrainian soil.

 

"In addition to the command of the 58th Army in the city of Melitopol, 3 artillery pieces and up to 10 units of various types of military equipment were destroyed in the Energodar, Tokmak and Gulyaypol districts. Up to 150 enemy servicemen have been wounded," the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff has said.

 

Russia does not admit defeat and does not start de-occupation of Ukrainian territories and fighting over Crimea is inevitable. And here there is a huge risk that the occupiers will try to use the civilian population, especially Crimean Tatars, as a "human shield". That is why Turkey, which is aware of its responsibility for the fate of the Crimean Tatar people, seeks to mediate and arrange, if possible, the peaceful de-occupation of Crimea and the restoration of the legitimate Ukrainian authorities here. This Turkish proposal coincided with the events in Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers are preventing environmental monitoring of the illegal extraction of minerals by the "Artsakhi" separatists.

 

The Turkish proposal to de-occupy Crimea and its correlation with developments in Karabakh, where Turkey fully supports Azerbaijan's legitimate demands, was recently reported by the "Kremlin snuffbox" ( @kremlin_secrets ) telegram channel, among others:

 

"Erdogan offered to give Putin Crimea, but not to Ukraine. We managed to find out no doubt sensational details of Putin's latest conversation with Erdogan. When the Russian leader complained that the AFU was hitting airfields far from the front line on a tip from NATO, the Turkish president suggested that the Russian Federation withdraw from the conflict.

 

- I would not mind," Putin said. - But how? (Then there was a block about the West's Russophobic policy), and then Putin added: We have offered them (Kiev) negotiations, but they don't want to.

 

- I have a plan. It has not yet been seen in Kiev, Berlin or Washington," Erdogan said. - We both understand that the Russian Federation will have to withdraw from Donbass, the main sticking point is Crimea. Zelensky told me that Ukraine is ready to fight for Crimea, although there were no such plans before February. My suggestion: Crimea will break away from Russia, it will remain de jure part of Ukraine, but international control of the territory will be under Turkish leadership. Ten years after the war, a referendum would be held on the peninsula to decide its fate. Volodymyr at first said that the status of Crimea was not being discussed, but Erdogan made it clear: it will have to be discussed, and it is better to do so through him as soon as possible. Note that Putin did not say a strict 'no' in the end...".

 

Some time later, according to the same telegram channel: "Erdogan demanded a response from Moscow regarding his peace proposal. The same one in which Russia withdraws troops from the territory of Donbass and Crimea will be de facto governed by Turkey. According to our information, a call was made between Ankara and Moscow at the level of foreign ministers, where the Turkish side demanded that Russia give its vision of the situation. As a 'salute', Erdogan, at the hands of Azerbaijani activists and journalists, staged a multi-day picket of the Lachin corridor linking Armenia with Karabakh, and also picketed the building housing the Russian peacekeepers. It is interesting that amid the lack of advancement of Russian troops on the front, Erdogan has become so actively involved in the peace process."

 

Understandably, the Russian telegram channel, albeit an opposition one, is "twisting the facts". The picket in the Lachin corridor in Karabakh was not organised by Erdogan at all, but by the Azerbaijani public. But there is no doubt that Turkey's leadership fully supports Azerbaijan's legitimate demands. And most importantly, they must have warned the Kremlin not to let its peacekeepers "do something stupid" and not to be led astray by Armenian provocateurs.

 

One way or another, Russia does not have the strength today to comply with the insane wishes of the Armenian lobby, for which it got involved in the adventure with the annexation of Crimea and aggression against Ukraine to a large extent. This means that Russia will have to agree to a full de-occupation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

 

So far, Turkey has offered a "good deal" with its own guarantees so that those Russians or pro-Russian residents of Crimea who do not want to live in Ukraine could calmly leave Crimea, given time to do so - to sell real estate to decide on a new place of residence, etc. Turkey proposes to give as much as 10 years for this. Twice as long as the Armenians in Karabakh received as a result of the 44-day war (that is how long Russian peacekeepers were introduced. But the Karabakh nationalists have already wasted 3 years, driven by unrealistic revanchist hopes. And now "time is running out". They may not have 2 years left in case of new provocations.

 

 

George Kvinitadze

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