The struggle of two empires for Georgia - the heat of events is only accelerating

04.05.24 20:49

Georgia is in a hazardous situation today. The country could be "torn apart" between the two "empires" of our time - the "collective West" led by the United States and Russia. And repeat the fate of Ukraine, which is also "torn apart" between the same geopolitical players.


As a result, Ukraine has become the scene of a bloody war in which the West is helping Ukraine to be "dosed", making it bleed and not allowing it to restore its territorial integrity by regaining the occupied territories. Ukraine was "divided" by the front line.


At the same time, the way the "division of Ukraine" began is painfully reminiscent of the current situation in Georgia. And the Western media do not even hide the parallels between the current situation in Georgia and the situation in Ukraine in 2013-2014. "Ivanishvili could repeat Yanukovych's fate" was the headline of a recent article by DW columnist Roman Goncharenko.


But it is not only the political leadership that is at risk. There is also a risk that the territories of Georgia will be "divided alive". Let us recall that under Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, whatever one thinks of him, no one questioned the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and Crimea was Ukrainian. However, there was a base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which then played a fatal role in Russia's annexation of the peninsula.


Just as the EU is now promising Georgia "membership negotiations", the EU promised Ukraine an "association agreement" in 2013, while putting forward several conditions that Ukraine did not want to agree to.

At the last moment, Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the EU on terms that were clearly unfavorable to Ukraine, but he did manage to sign documents on cooperation with the Russian Federation, with a sharp policy of joining "Russian" intergovernmental associations. This was the occasion for the so-called "Euromaidan", where the same foreign-funded NGOs set the tone.


The initially "peaceful" Euromaidan in Kyiv gradually increased the level of violence and eventually led to armed clashes. Archil Talakvadze, the deputy speaker of the Georgian parliament, bluntly stated that the same scenario was being played out in Georgia. "In the last few days, we said that the demonstrations, which have so far been peaceful, would inevitably turn violent. That is exactly what happened, because behind this and in the ranks of the protesters are oppositionists who have extensive experience in organizing unrest and destabilization. They didn't take long. Today they directly held a briefing and said that we are the leaders of this rally, they directly took responsibility," Archil Talakvadze told Imedi Live.


The question is: what's next? What will happen if the "Ukrainian Euromaidan" destabilization scenario in Georgia is implemented? It is obvious that the "Maidanists" will not wait for elections and will try to seize power by force, as it actually happened in Kiev in February 2014. And as it turned out, this scenario of seizing power and the shaky legitimacy of the new Ukrainian authorities was exactly what the Kremlin was waiting for.


Everyone remembers that the annexation of Crimea by the Russian army began precisely on the pretext of the "lack of legitimacy" of the coup in Kiev. And by all appearances, the "Maidan" authorities in Kiev (and, in fact, their patrons in the West) did not prevent the beginning of the "division of Ukraine in its entirety". In any case, the Ukrainian military in Crimea was initially ordered not to offer armed resistance to the Russian army.


The Ukrainian army began to resist only when the process of organising separatist pro-Russian "republics" spread to Donbass, which was the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which in February 2022 turned into a phase of direct, open, full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation.


Today there is a danger for Georgia that the same forces that brought Ukraine into a war with no end in sight are planning to do the same with Georgia.


There is an obvious danger that if the confrontation, which is intensifying and gaining momentum in Georgia, leads to a violent change of power (or an attempt at such a violent change), Russia will launch a direct military invasion of Georgia outside Abkhazia and Samachablo, which it has already occupied, as some propagandists close to the Kremlin and the separatist information resources in Sukhumi are already saying directly.


For example, propagandist Sergei Karnaukhov directly stated that Georgia could "turn to us" (i.e. the Russian Federation - ed.) for military assistance "so that we could help to turn the head of the terrorist scum that is now raising its head there". In other words, under the pretext of "combating the anti-Russian Maidan", the Russian Federation may already be preparing a direct large-scale aggression against Georgia. And the signal for the invasion may well be an attempt at an unconstitutional change of power.


The separatist resource "ABKHAZIA CENTRE" reveals even more openly some plans for a probable Russian invasion of Georgia:


"In the event of a SWO on the territory of Georgia, Abkhazia will be assigned a special role: firstly, taking control of the Ingur hydroelectric power station and joining the villages on the state border (perhaps this will happen even before the invasion); secondly, guides on the territory of western Georgia, translators into Georgian and Mingrelian languages; thirdly, drone attacks, blocking of ports - it is more convenient not to do this in the name of Russia. And, of course, as in February 1921, a part of the Russian troops will move to the campaign from the territory of Abkhazia.  - writes the separatist resource.


And of course, as in 1921, the Armenian fifth column can play its role in bringing occupiers to Georgian soil, who then, in 1921, let us remember, raised rebellions in the Lori and Shulaveri zones and called the Red Army to Georgia "to help the rebels". And today, in the event of a destabilisation of the situation in Georgia, the Khai "Javakheti" separatists may well call for Russian troops. After all, there was a Russian military base in Akhalkalaki for a long time after the collapse of the USSR, and there is a network of Russian agents among the separatist Armenians.




Alexandre Zakariadze

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