The events in Iran, where the authorities are unable to quell the protests that erupted after the death of a girl detained by the local "vice police", indicate that the country is on the eve of a fundamental transformation, the consequences of which will be no less than those of the 1979 "Islamic Revolution". Both "internal" and "external".

Moreover, certain forces can purposefully undermine the situation in Iran in order to provoke such a conflict. The analogy is that after the "Islamic Revolution" there was a long-standing Iran-Iraq war, which before the revolution few had predicted.

And quite naturally, since the "revolutionary" masses, even those who have supposedly achieved "victory" for the new "revolutionary" power that has come to power, must again be brought to obedience.  The easiest way to do that is to send them to the front and "recycle" the passionaries there. That is what happened after 1979. After Ayatollah Khomeini flew in from Paris to take power, the "Islamic Revolution" burned the "revolutionary enthusiasm" of the masses in the Iran-Iraq war, which broke out immediately after the revolution. In addition, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was then used as a "black eye", believing that the revolutionary turmoil in Iran was a good time to annex the oil-rich areas of Iran populated by ethnic Arabs to Iraq. The result was an eight-year massacre that claimed over 1 million lives on both sides, crippled millions more, set both countries back and brought both countries back to the same border. And then a "continuation of the banquet" in the form of the story of Iraq's seizure of Kuwait and the wars against that country by the Western coalition.

Considering the "explosiveness" of the regions adjacent to Iran, one can confidently say that certain geopolitical forces now, as after the "Islamic revolution", will try to direct the "revolutionary energy" of Iranian society to the war they, those external forces, need.  That is, the current protests in Iran could be only the first part of a grandiose, role-by-role scenario that could ultimately blow up the entire region. Moreover, one "front" is already emerging - Iran's support for Armenian revanchists and "Artsakh" separatists against Azerbaijan.

As it stands, Iran has many obstacles to "stand up" for Armenian nationalists. From the savage Islamophobia of Armenian nationalism itself, to the factor of southern Azerbaijan, where the population is least willing to fight for the Armenian terrorists who murdered and expelled their northern brothers from their native land.

But, after a likely "revolutionary coup" in the liberal direction, anything is possible. After the current "revolution" Iranian society will be unambiguously less "Islamic", but far more nationalistic and "great power".

There is a huge risk that the "women's hairstyle revolution", which was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini due to the improper wearing of a woman's headdress, is simply a special operation to transform the Tehran regime without changing its geopolitical orientation. In any case, France is in no way defending the regime in Tehran and its media is in solidarity with the protesters.

A grandiose "special operation" may well be underway to eventually draw a liberalised Iran into the war in the South Caucasus. Forcing it to fight for the same Armenia in conditions when the same Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, cannot do so.

The first sign of an already "pre-revolutionary" situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran is a split among the elite. The protests were supported by Badri Hosseini Khamenei, the sister of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Also, former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami has already officially supported the protests and called on the authorities to meet the protesters' demands "before it is too late".

It should be recalled that Mohammad Khatami, still symbolically called "Iranian Gorbachev", a reformist president who served two terms from 1997 to 2005, clearly adhered during his rule to the pro-French line (including support for Yerevan and pro-French forces in Lebanon). Khatami did everything to support Armenia and maintain its occupation of Azerbaijan's Karabakh. It was during his rule that the 'Karabakh clan' came to power in Armenia. However, despite his 'liberalism' and 'reformism', Khatami did absolutely nothing to stop the discrimination and infringement of the rights of southern Azeris in his country.

Today, Khatami has essentially led a "revolutionary movement" from above, calling the slogan "woman, life, freedom" "beautiful" and criticising the arrests of students by security forces:

"Freedom and security should not be allowed to be pitted against each other, with the result that freedom is trampled under the pretext of maintaining security or that security is ignored in the name of freedom. I advise officials to reach out to them [the protesters] and recognise the wrong aspects of governance and move towards good governance before it is too late."

Khatami's comments came in a statement marking Student's Day. Notably, on the same day, Iran's current President Ibrahim Raisi traditionally blamed the US for the turmoil in his address to students at Tehran University. However, it seems that the current government is losing more and more support in the society and its "reforming" and coming to power of more liberal figures like Khatami and or his circle, but younger ones, cannot be ruled out.

While supporting the "women's rights" protests, the liberal wing of the Iranian elite does not mention anything about the infringement of the rights of national minorities in Iran, in particular the Azeris, who make up more than 40% of the country's population. When it comes to the rights of the Turkic minorities, despite the fact that protests have also affected Azerbaijani-populated cities, both "orthodox" and "liberals" among Iran's elite are in solidarity - they are not going to be given any rights. Moreover, even timid attempts by Azerbaijanis in Iran to assert their rights in the face of the protests are simply ignored by the media (especially in the West).

However, in the event that the "revolutionaries" seize power, it is easy to guess who they might declare an "internal and external enemy" - the same defenders of the rights of Iranian Azeris, or perhaps allegedly "encroaching on Iranian territory" Azerbaijan. "Secular" Persian and Kurdish nationalists, who are Turkophobic, are heavily involved in the protests. They are for a liberal "secular" Iran but are anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani, though understandably they have to tolerate Azerbaijanis among the protesters for now.  

Therefore, it is no coincidence that both Turkey and Azerbaijan, while generally agreeing with the justness of the protesters' demands, are wary of the protests themselves in Iran. Especially since the most violent protests are taking place in Kurdistan and ethnic Kurdistan regions of Iran, where not only opposition to the regime in Tehran is strong, but also sympathies for terrorists from the "Kurdistan Workers' Party". The Kurdistan Workers' Party, it should be recalled, has "aggressive" feminism as one of its main programmatic tenets.

Overall, the pro-Western "women's hair revolution" may worsen relations between Iran and a weakened Russia, but it is unlikely to lead to a change in the geopolitical role that its external "handlers" have "prescribed" for Iran - a regional "counterweight" to Turkey.

Tsotne Dadiani