Cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan could give a new impetus to the development of countries along the New Silk Road, including Georgia. In addition to the obvious prospects of increasing cargo transit via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, the use of Turkmenistan's railways and the Baku-Turkmenbashi ferry could dramatically increase the transit of natural gas through Georgia.

As a result, Georgia has the potential to become the main transit country for natural gas from the Caspian basin to Europe. At that, if earlier Russia tried to oppose the gas transit through Georgia, now Russia is interested in creating a gas hub in the territory of Turkey. Naturally, for its own gas first of all. But at a time when aggression against Ukraine and sanctions are blocking the traditional gas delivery routes from Russia, Turkey remains the only promising "window to Europe" for Gazprom and it cannot prevent the same Turkey from making money on gas transit from Azerbaijan via Georgia.

Azerbaijan and Georgia could eventually become the main transit countries for Turkmen gas to Europe. Turkmenistan's reserves are huge and rank fourth in the world after Russia, Qatar and Iran. Turkmenistan currently exports most of its gas to China but is interested in returning to the European market.

In fact, Turkmenistan has been pushed out of the European market as well as the markets of former Soviet countries (including Ukraine and Georgia) by Russia. "Gazprom took advantage of Turkmenistan's monopoly as a transit country in the west by buying its gas at a cheap price and earning super profits on re-exports. This was the reason for the "reorientation" of Turkmenistan's gas exports to China. In the current circumstances, when gas supplies via the traditional routes via Ukraine and the halted "northern streams" in Europe have become clearly insufficient, Turkmen gas could be a substitute.

The demand for Turkmen natural gas on the European market coincided with the most dynamic development of cooperation and friendly relations between Turkmenistan and Turkey and Azerbaijan in the post-Soviet period. Such friendship, it should be recalled, was hindered as much as possible by certain external geopolitical forces. And it is clear why. Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey are not just Turkic brotherly countries; within the Turkic peoples proper their languages belong to the same, Oghuz subgroup and have common roots. It is therefore no coincidence that the Kremlin's policy at one time was to introduce discord between the two countries. In particular, Ashgabat was literally forced to impose "friendship" with Yerevan in the CIS, forcing the Kremlin to turn a blind eye to the aggression against Azerbaijan and the occupation of Azerbaijani lands.

The Moscow-based political consultant Dmitry Fetisov's author's telegrams channel, Fetisov-opinions, published an almost panicked (for the Armenian lobby) assessment of the prospects for Turkmen-Azerbaijani and Turkmen-Turkish cooperation (https://t.me/exp_fdn/4455 ):

"The number of contacts between Turkmen and Azerbaijani officials has increased sharply, literally before our eyes. For the past two weeks they have been announcing new large-scale projects between the two states and announcing a large-scale Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan-Turkey forum.

There are few conclusions:

1. Turkmenistan is falling under Turkey's influence, although a couple of years ago this seemed absurd. Many members of the Russian Foreign Ministry laughed in vain at the experts who predicted such a scenario.

2. Regardless of the political spectacles Berdymukhamedov the elder put on, and no matter how much he was laughed at in the post-Soviet space, under him Turkmenistan was a truly independent state, without any bias in someone's favour. After Berdymukhamedov, Jr. came to power, Turkmenistan's foreign policy vector became pro-Turkish.

3. The "Turkish crescent" around Russia's borders is becoming a reality before our eyes. Given Putin and Erdogan's relationship and the two powers' interests in the Middle East, the presidential election in Turkey is now becoming more important to the Kremlin than the outcome of the USO (as Russia calls the aggression against Ukraine - ed.).

One way or another, despite the powerless displeasure of detractors, the trilateral summit of the heads of states of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, scheduled for December 13-14, 2022 may become the key to the development of close cooperation between these Turkic states. From which those who cooperate with these countries, especially Georgia, will only benefit.

In preparation for the trilateral summit, the foreign, transport and energy ministers of the countries are meeting separately and working on the documents to be signed during the high-level meeting. On 13 December, three parallel ministerial meetings will be held: the Foreign Ministers, the Transport Ministers and the Energy Ministers of the three countries. A meeting of heads of states of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey will be held on December 14 at the Avaza national tourist zone on the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea.

The first steps in cooperation on gas issues have already been taken. In January 2021, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding for joint exploration, development and exploitation of the Dostluk hydrocarbon field in the Caspian Sea".

A number of experts do not rule out that an intergovernmental agreement on the joint, Turkmen-Azerbaijani development of the Dostluk oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea could be signed at the forthcoming trilateral summit on 14 December 2022. There is also little doubt that the Tras-Caspian gas pipeline project between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan can finally get under way.

Recall that the capacity of the already designed gas pipeline is 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. It is planned that the pipeline will be able to deliver up to 30 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas a year to Europe. In Azerbaijan, the pipeline will connect to the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum), and through the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).  Whereas in the past the Russian Federation has obstructed these projects as much as it could, it is now, on the contrary, interested in making Turkey itself the main hub for Europe and its natural gas supplies and Turkey will already determine the gas supplies to the EU from the East.

Well, the Armenian lobby in Moscow can be "congratulated" - with its policy of supporting separatism and redrawing borders and unleashing war in Ukraine, it has done everything to make Turkey indispensable for the energy security of Europe. And Georgia will undoubtedly benefit immensely from a sharp increase in gas transit through its territory.

Tsotne Dadiani