The war in Ukraine is reaching a new phase. Russia has not succeeded in quickly defeating the Ukrainian armed forces and forcing a quick surrender (as it seemed possible in the Russian Federation in the early days). On the other hand, Ukraine has lost some territories, some communications have been cut, infrastructure in some cities has been destroyed. The front line has yet to be " stabilized". The war is acquiring a "protracted" character, which will have huge negative consequences not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for all mankind.

Ukraine and Russia are among the main suppliers of food to the world market. According to some estimates, before the war Ukraine, with its slightly over 40 million inhabitants fed some 400 million people worldwide, i.e. 10 times its own population. Naturally, now this food does not go to the world market, and in the next year will not. Ukrainian Black Sea ports are completely blocked as a result of military action and there is a problem with grain shipments from Russian ports as well.

Food shortages are already observed in Ukraine. Shops are empty, markets do not work and food processing plants are shutting down. Grain and flour are in abundance in the country, but with the Russian military intervention and blockade of a number of large cities it is problematic to deliver them to consumers.

Huge batches of grain are blocked and there is no possibility to deliver them neither by railway, nor by motor transport, nor by water. The livestock complex is collapsing - many poultry farms are unable to arrange supplies of fodder and there is nothing to feed the poultry. Russian occupation troops, bypassing major cities with their military garrisons, occupy the surrounding countryside, making the supply of agricultural products to these cities problematic.

One must also take into account that Russia first hit Ukrainian oil depots and fuel depots to deprive Ukrainian troops of fuel. And while the remaining fuel will somehow be scraped together for military needs, the share of spring field work is catastrophically short. Not to mention the regions of Ukraine where the front line runs and some fields are simply mined.

Both Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of grain to the Middle East and North Africa region. Ukrainian and Russian grains account for approximately 85% of the grain balance of a country like Egypt. Egypt's population of 100 million is essentially without grain supply.

Whether the countries of North Africa and the Middle East will be able to solve the problem of stopping the supply of Ukrainian wheat with grain from other countries - the US, Canada, Australia or Argentina is very questionable. Grain traders from these countries are now holding back their grain stocks, and logistics are not that convenient. It takes about 25 days to transport grain from USA to the Middle East region compared to 7 days from Ukraine.

Obviously, there is a real threat of famine in the Middle East region with a population of about a billion people. This could once again trigger political instability, new wars and new refugees. Including famine refugees. In addition to the estimated 5 to 10 million refugees from Ukraine, famine in the Middle East and North Africa could result in "in addition" up to 50 to 100 million refugees, who will rush to the still relatively safe countries. Particularly to Europe and Turkey. But the problem of the previous wave of refugees from war-torn Syria has not yet been resolved here.

And most importantly, what to feed these people in the new place? The notion of a "fed Europe" is a thing of the past. Natural gas and fertilizers will hit European farmers hard, and harvests may also plummet.

Under such circumstances, the authorities of the South Caucasus countries, especially Georgia, should take urgent measures to stockpile grain and other critically needed food, as well as encourage the development of agriculture and support farmers. In fact, it is Georgian land, not tourism, mining or even transit status that can become the country's main "breadwinners".

Kavkazplus