For the first time in a long time, the leadership of the Republic of Armenia, led by Nikol Pashinyan, began to take reasonable steps that could contribute to the establishment of peace in the region. In particular, unlike the situation in occupied Karabakh, Nikol Pashinyan did not try to hold on to the 4 occupied villages of the Gazakh region, which are not exclaves, but went to persuade the Armenian settlers to leave the foreign land.

According to all indications, these villages in Armenia will return peacefully to Azerbaijan in the near future. This should speed up the process of delimitation and demarcation of the border between the two countries and facilitate the signing of a peace treaty as soon as possible.

However, such a reasonable policy, which offers a chance for the preservation of the Caucasian statehood, does not suit those who have already planned to sacrifice the Caucasian people and the Republic of Armenia itself. According to the plan of the external geopolitical forces, first of all France, Armenia should ignite the "fire of a great war" in the South Caucasus region and burn itself in it. And the Armenians themselves will mostly return to their usual role of "victims" of another "genocide" and refugees. For the sake of this, Paris is planning to arm the army of the Republic of Armenia with modern weapons. For the sake of this new military alliance, France-Armenia-Iran-India is being built.

As a result, by all accounts, the Ulta-French forces organised a "warning action" for the government of Nikol Pashinyan in order to disrupt the peace process. This action can be compared to the same action in the summer of 2016.

It should be recalled that in 2016, after four days of fighting in Karabakh, during which the Hay occupiers lost a number of strategically important heights and positions, it became clear to sensible people in Armenia that the occupied territories could not be held by force. Then Armenia had to come to an "amicable" agreement with Azerbaijan. As long as there was a chance, very loyal terms of de-occupation were offered to the Caucasian inhabitants of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Had Yerevan agreed to the peace process at that time, the majority of Karabakh's Armenians would be living in peace in this region of Azerbaijan today. With citizenship in the country and a very high level of preferences, all this could have been discussed. But this scenario did not suit the external actors, the same France that did not need the peaceful coexistence of the Armenians with their Turkish neighbours.

The "Sasna Tsrer" group was particularly radical and opposed to even a partial de-occupation of Karabakh. It was led by Jirayr Sefilian, a native of Lebanon (a former French colony), a militant and participant in the first Karabakh war who had been an agent of the French special services for many years.

The Armenian authorities then took steps to neutralise the group, but not enough.  On 20 June 2016, Zhirayr Sefilian was arrested on suspicion of illegal transport and storage of weapons. The real reason for the arrest was Sefilian's intransigent stance on Karabakh and his threats to take armed action if the peace process starts.

In response to Sefilian's arrest, Sasna Tsrer militants turned to violent action. On 17 July 2016, they seized the building of a police patrol regiment in the Erebuni district on the outskirts of Yerevan, demanding the release of Jirayr Sefilian and the resignation of President Serzh Sargsyan. The confrontation with Sasna Tsrer lasted until 31 July; eventually the militants released the hostages and surrendered, but it became clear to the authorities that any concessions to Azerbaijan would lead to France organising their violent overthrow through its agents. As a result, Armenia never seized the opportunity for a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh issue.

It seems that now, after Nikol Pashinyan has taken reasonable steps to settle the border issues with Azerbaijan, the same forces are giving him the same "warning". This is in order to prevent the establishment of a lasting peace and the unblocking of communications in the South Caucasus region.

On 24 March 2024, an attack was carried out on a police station in Yerevan. It was preceded by attempts to organise a "violent action" to disrupt the process of border demarcation.

Such an action was prepared by the "All-Armenian Public Organisation of War Veterans", "Combat Brotherhood", founded in 2004. The organisation opposed the transfer of occupied villages to Azerbaijani control as part of the demarcation and delimitation process.

On the morning of 24 March, members of the "Combat Brotherhood" organisation planned to travel to north-eastern Armenia, where the demarcation and delimitation process was due to begin, with the subsequent transfer of four villages to Azerbaijani control. The organisation stated that it intended to organise 'self-defence' in the region, involving illegal settlers in the occupied territories. But 50 participants in the planned action were arrested by the police. Afterwards, three extremists attempted to seize a police station, similar to what happened in Sasna Tsrer in 2016.

According to media reports, two of the attackers were wounded by a grenade they detonated themselves, while one of the militants armed with a grenade remained outside the police station. Some time later, the special forces of the National Security Service of Armenia neutralised and arrested this militant, but the event managed to gain public and political resonance. Although members of the "Combat Brotherhood" organisation had gathered near the police station shortly before the seizure, the "Combat Brotherhood" stated on its Telegram channel that it "condemns any terrorist activity" and was not involved in the incident at the police station. A number of media outlets reported that the attackers were members of the same Sasna Tsrer organisation.

All this suggests that Nikol Pashinyan has received a "warning" from France through the "aggressive" French agents in Armenia. The meaning of the warning is clear: "don't get carried away" with the peace process. In any case, the French curators do not want to give him the opportunity to "jump out of the big war". But they do not intend to overthrow Pashinyan's power in Paris just yet, because other pro-French politicians like Zhirayr Sefilian are too crazy.

Grigol Giorgadze