ANALYTICS

Turkey is extending a hand of reconciliation to Armenia. Yerevan must seize opportunities

26.04.24 12:43


The 109th anniversary of the mythical so-called "Genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire" occurred for the first time in many years in an atmosphere of division within the Armenian community. The government of Nikol Pashinyan's actions to initiate the delimitation and demarcation of the border with Azerbaijan, as well as the de-occupation of four Azerbaijani villages, provoked the furious indignation of those who seek revenge.

 

The revanchists have labelled Pashinyan as a "Turk" and accused him of "handing over Armenian lands," despite the Armenian government's recent decision to relinquish its internationally recognised territories to Azerbaijan. On the anniversary of the mythical "genocide" on 24 April 2024 in Yerevan, hate-filled events and torchlight processions were held once again. During these events, not only were the flags of Turkey and Azerbaijan burned symbolically, but the Pashinyan government was also accused of "betrayal".

 

Turkey sees Armenia's policy of settling border issues with Azerbaijan as a pledge to normalise Turkish-Armenian relations. On 24 April 2024, the Turkish leader once again extended a "hand of reconciliation" to Armenia. On 24 April 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan honoured the memory of the Ottoman Armenians who died in the process of the collapse of the Empire by expressing condolences to their descendants on the occasion of their Memorial Day in his message to the Patriarch of the Armenians of Turkey, Sahak Mashalian:

 

"Today, I once again pay tribute to the memory of the Armenians, citizens of the Ottoman Empire, who perished in the adverse conditions caused by the First World War, and express my condolences to their descendants," the Turkish leader said. "The devastation caused by the First World War in the Ottoman lands has left deep traces in our memories."

 

The Turkish President also wished God's mercy on all members of Ottoman society who lost their lives and embraced martyrdom as a result of conflicts, riots and rampant banditry, and called for joint efforts to maintain an atmosphere of peace and tranquillity.

 

"The security, prosperity and happiness of our fellow Armenian citizens, who enrich the Anatolian lands with cultural and human heritage, are still guaranteed today," assured Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He noted that no Turkish citizen of Armenian origin will be "marginalised" or "feel second-class".

 

The Turkish President concluded that the way to protect future generations from the spiral of violence and war that has already engulfed the world is to build a common future together and to learn from the dark pages of history.

 

In principle, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already tried to reconcile with Armenia and restore good neighbourly relations. And even once, in 2009, he had some success in this direction. Thanks to his initiatives, the Zurich Protocols - bilateral agreements signed by Armenia and Turkey - were signed on 10 October 2009, marking the beginning of the process of normalising relations between the two countries. Almost no political analyst doubted that the main goal of the protocols was not so much the restoration of relations between Turkey and Armenia, but the beginning of the de-occupation of Azerbaijani Karabakh by Armenia. Symbolically, at least, it was initially proposed to de-occupy 5 or only 2 districts.

 

The Zurich agreement was brokered by the US, Russia and France and signed by the foreign ministers of the two countries, Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward Nalbandian. The signing ceremony was attended by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This presentation made it clear that key geopolitical players were "pushing" Armenia to begin the peaceful de-occupation of Karabakh.

 

The Armenian nationalists, however, flatly refused to address the Karabakh issue and, on the contrary, put forward "additional territorial claims against Azerbaijan". Turkey made it clear that there would be no settlement of relations unless Armenia made concessions, even symbolic ones, on the Karabakh issue.

 

However, the ruling coalition in Armenia demanded that the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols be removed from the parliamentary agenda. Armenian MPs were "outraged" by statements by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had linked the ratification of the protocols to progress on the Karabakh issue.

 

On 22 April 2010, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced that his country had decided to suspend the process of regulating relations with Turkey, in particular the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols signed in 2009. In February 2015, the Armenian side withdrew the protocols from parliament. And finally, on 1 March 2018, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan signed a decree denouncing the Zurich Protocols.

 

What happened next is well remembered. In the same spring of 2018, Serzh Sargsyan was overthrown in a "revolution". But Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power, was in no hurry to restore relations with Turkey. Most importantly, he did not take a single step towards the peaceful de-occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

It took Armenia's defeat in the Second Karabakh War, with huge casualties, and the subsequent liquidation of the separatist 'Artsakh', for the authorities in Yerevan to finally realise that it is not possible to hold on to someone else's property by force. And they began to build civilised relations with their neighbours.

 

Meanwhile, answering journalists' questions after his recent visit to Iraq, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already noted the constructive changes in the policy of the Armenian authorities. According to him, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has realised that it is better to act on the basis of today's realities than to cling to fictions about historical events. The Turkish leader highlighted the fact that in his recent speeches on the events that took place in the Ottoman Empire in 1915, the Armenian Prime Minister never once used the term "genocide", instead using the definition of "great catastrophe".

 

"A new order is now being established in the region. It is time to stop repeating unfounded, hackneyed phrases. It is better to act on the basis of today's realities than to cling to fictions about historical events. Pashinyan understands this now," said Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He also expressed hope that the Armenian authorities would be able to free themselves from the influence of their diaspora abroad.

 

"The doors of opportunity will not remain open forever. It is therefore imperative to utilise these opportunities in a timely and effective manner. Not only the diaspora but also many other external actors are attempting to influence Armenia. It is hoped that Armenia will choose the most appropriate path, which will contribute to the beginning of a new stage," the Turkish president said.

 

Armenia itself previously "slammed" these "doors of opportunity" by refusing to ratify the Zurich Protocols. This resulted in the breakdown of relations with Turkey and the inability to resolve the Karabakh issue peacefully and without further bloodshed. However, the "doors of opportunity" are now open once more. It is therefore imperative that Armenia takes advantage of the current circumstances and refrains from further militarisation and preparations for a new revanchist war, which, if initiated, could have the effect of undermining the statehood of the Armenian ethnic group.

 

 

Alexandre Zakariadze

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