There are only a few who can "catch" the cause-and-effect relationship of how closely the fates of Iran and Russia have been intertwined, at least for the last 150 years. Moreover, such events in Iran as the "constitutional" revolution of 1905-11, overthrow of Qajar dynasty and coming to power of Pahlavi dynasty in 1925, the Shah's "white revolution" of 1963-1979 and finally the Islamic revolution in 1979 were possible due to weakening of Russia's position in the southern geopolitical direction.

The Russian Empire, by the beginning of the 20th century, was interested in the stability of Iran's Turkic Qajar dynasty, with which it had close economic and political cooperation. The British Empire, on the other hand, intended to "reformat" Iran, which it succeeded in doing through a series of revolutions and coups. Revolution of 1905-11 in Kajarian Iran generally began "simultaneously" with the 1905-1907 revolution in Russia. And most interestingly, the same Armenian Dashnaks acted as one of the "driving" forces of the revolutions in both powers.

The October Revolution of 1917 in Russia and the civil war in that country led to "nullification" of Russian influence in Iran, which was immediately taken advantage of by the British, who brought to power, instead of the Kadajirs, their puppet Reza Khan, who became the Shah and founded, supposedly, the "ancient Persian" Pahlavi dynasty. This dynasty was primarily committed to fighting all things Turkic and to "Great Iranian" nationalism.

Joseph Stalin's failure to "sovietize" South Azerbaijan after World War II led the Pahlavi shahs to seek the cooperation of the USA for "protection against the USSR". As part of this geopolitical choice, the so-called "White Revolution" was organized from above. This was a set of political and socio-economic reforms carried out in Iran by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1963-1979. 

Overall US domination of Iran did not suit the other Western players, most notably France, and resulted in the Islamic Revolution of 1979. A generally unfriendly regime was established in its vicinity. The USSR was not allowed to unfold the "revolutionary" process in Iran in the direction of building another "socialist society", and after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Iran became one of the bases of the Afghan Mujahideen insurgents (primarily Shiite Hazara).

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to increased cooperation between Tehran and Moscow. The emergence of an independent and highly aggressive Armenia in the South Caucasus, as a "joint project" of France on the one hand and Russia on the other (because Armenian dependence on Russia was initially total), also contributed to this.

Gradually, cooperation between Russia and Iran evolved into a geopolitical alliance.  Joint military operations began in Syria in 2015 and, in fact, in Ukraine from 2022, where Russia depends on Iranian arms supplies, especially strike drones, for its aggression against that country.

Recently, the Russian-Iranian alliance has become even closer "thanks to" the "international pariah" status of both powers (the Kremlin obtained this status after its aggression against Ukraine). Russia and Iran have similar internal problems. These are "centrifugal" tendencies and the central government's suppression of national regions' aspirations for autonomy.

Moreover, the " troubled national regions" of Russia and Iran are in geopolitical proximity. For Russia it is the North Caucasus and for Iran it is the north of the country, especially historical southern Azerbaijan.

Both the Russian Federation and the regime in Tehran have practiced severe repression" of national regions. The Kremlin, for example, sank the Chechen independence movement in blood and switched to relative "loyalty" to the Chechens after it installed fully obedient puppets there. The authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran also pursue a policy of national oppression of "non-Persian" ethnic groups. Persian chauvinists have been fighting against the culture and cultural identity of Iran's minorities for the last 100 years. Not the least recent example is the banning of a traditional Turkic festival in the province of Zanjan in north-western Iran. Earlier, in the southern Azerbaijani city of Urmia, the country's authorities closed down the Shahriyar Turkish theatre. Also closed is a cultural centre with Azerbaijani national costumes. There is no education in the Azerbaijani language in Iran, which is home to millions of Azeris. The family of the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran is also infected with Turkophobia - his wife recently declared the Turks to be "ancient enemies" of Iran.

In recent days, unexpectedly, Russian leader Vladimir Putin ( the very same one who crushed Chechnya in blood) has started to ostentatiously "take care" of the regions of the Caucasus. On 28 June, the Russian president arrived on a working visit to Dagestan. He met with the inhabitants of the city who gave the leader a warm welcome, demonstrating "people's love". After that the media widely spread news about the "spoofing" of this meeting. It is noteworthy that Putin began to show increased interest in the Caucasus region immediately after the rebellion of the Wagner PMC. Probably in this way the Russian president is trying to regain the image of "unshakable leader" and to show full control over the power in the country, which according to the world media has weakened. Another possible reason for the "care" may be fear of a repeat of similar uprisings against the background of frequent statements of heads of Caucasian peoples about secession from Russia. According to experts, the Russian president is using a similar approach by his new close ally, President Raisi of Iran, who has also recently started surprisingly "cajoling" provinces inhabited by national minorities.

Such a change in the attitude of the two regimes towards minorities does not happen out of "good life". They are now "wobbling" before their eyes. The regime in Tehran was shaken by mass protests against the authority of the mullahs and the order established by that authority; the regime in Moscow by the unfortunate war in Ukraine and the rebellion of the Wagner PMC.

Another peculiarity of the regimes in Moscow and Tehran is their extreme militarisation and active involvement of national minorities in Russia and Iran as "cannon fodder" for wars of aggression. Both regimes are trying to strengthen their unity by "tying up with blood" the most passionate representatives of national communities. It is not incidental that Azerbaijanis play an important role in the IRGC, and the General Staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran is headed by Azeri Mohammad Bagheri, a descendant of the IRGC.

Interestingly, the extreme militarization of empires on the eve of their collapse and resulting military defeats is a known global trend. Austria-Hungary, for example, went through this when it was defeated in World War I and fell apart into several nation-states. Therefore, current militarization of Russia and Iran and their desire to solve national issues by inflaming the military psychosis may have the opposite effect. Putin's and Raisi's belated flirting with the national minorities of their countries would be of little help here - the process of collapse of the "rogue states" could begin unexpectedly and take an avalanche.

It is no coincidence that the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, has warned that the world must be prepared for the collapse of Russia.   According to him, Ukraine has analysed what was happening in Russia's regions during the Wagner PMC rebellion and the attempted coup d'etat showed that Russia is not a strong state... "... Based on these analyses, one can say what Russia will look like after the collapse... Tatarstan will be separate, Dagestan will be a separate country which has nothing to do with Russia. They are colonies of the Russian Federation". - Alexei Danilov stated. Also, according to Danilov, Russia's collapse will start in the Caucasus.

Russia's defeat in Ukraine will automatically mean the collapse of Russian policy on other fronts as well, and will trigger a "domino effect" for Russia's ally Iran. The regime in Tehran together with the IRGC, without Russian military participation, simply "will not be able" to sustain the Assad regime in Syria. One military defeat (at least in Syria, and if Iran clashes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, it will be a catastrophe) may be enough to cause a chain reaction.  Society will be disappointed in both the IRGC and the Tehran regime (certainly the national minorities in Iran), and militarization of consciousness will lead to division of the army along ethnic lines. The same way the Austro-Hungarian army was divided into national armies in 1918. Naturally, after this all the "anti-Turkic" joint projects of Moscow and Tehran, such as support for Armenia and the "Artsakh" separatists will automatically be forgotten.

Aleksandr Zakhariadze