On July 23-24 an armed mutiny of PMC "Wagner" began in Russia under the leadership of the owner of this structure Yevgeny Prigozhin. The rebellion, meanwhile, was neither suppressed nor finished, but "put on pause" in the evening of July 24.

It is interesting to compare the behavior of state leader Vladimir Putin during this mutiny with that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the attempted coup and military mutiny in that country in the summer of 2016. The Turkish president did not go into hiding, but immediately flew to Istanbul and resolutely began to restore constitutional order. Recep Tayyip Erdogan directly addressed the Turkish people. Millions of his supporters came to the squares of Turkish cities and began to disarm the rebels. Vladimir Putin's behavior during the mutiny of PMC "Wagrner" indicates nothing but panic fear of him and his inner circle.

Vladimir Putin went on air with a recording of the address only on the second day after the start of the mutiny, he did not appear anywhere "live" (ie, in contrast to Erdogan, he was hiding). There were no attempts by the supposedly "loyal to their president" population and security forces to stop the rebels. They "marched" from Rostov and Rostov Oblast, through half of Russia, to the outskirts of Moscow, without encountering any resistance. 

As for the agreement between the Wagner PMC and the Kremlin, mediated by Belarusian President Lukashenko, made in the evening of June 24, 2023, when the Wagner columns were 200 kilometers from Moscow, it does not stop the confusion. PMC Wagner has ceased their campaign against Moscow, while Prigozhin is moved to Belarus and all criminal cases against him are closed.  Most of the Wagnerians are likely to go to Belarus, except for some units who will agree to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry.

The most interesting thing is that its ringleaders officially "got away with it. This means that escalation and resumption of confrontation will be possible at any time. Especially since Prigozhin and Vagner will settle in Belarus, and the distance from Moscow to its borders is much closer than from Rostov. Although many analysts suggest that Putin will still take "into his hands" the top brass of Wagner, will kill them and send them to prisons, but a little later.

The Russian leadership has shown its weakness. The insurgents are still the sword of Damocles hanging over Moscow. Now the Kremlin, even if it wants to, will not be able to "just" get out of the war in Ukraine. Any freezing of the conflict and an attempt to make peace with even minimal concessions will be perceived as "betrayal. And then the "march on Moscow" will be repeated, but, firstly, the "march from Belarus" will be closer, and secondly, it can be supported by other military men, including units currently fighting on the Ukrainian front, among whom the popularity of Prigozhin is off the scale, who acted mostly as "observers" on July 23-24, 2023.

Obviously, the Kremlin simply "has no right" to suffer defeats from the Ukrainian army and abandon cities and territories, as it did last summer and fall. And there is no doubt that there will be such defeats. The Ukrainian army is already conducting a counteroffensive, only "suspending" it for the time of the Prigozhin rebellion. Defeats on the Ukrainian front may again "resume" the rebellion, because they will be blamed on the same leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry, which Yevgeny Prigozhin opposed.

PMC "Wagner" has proved to be almost an "international entity" and a "state in a state", which is negotiated with the mediation of the head of the neighboring state and entered into agreements. In other words, this is nothing but a humiliation of the Russian statehood before a private structure. This is unlikely to end well, and the turmoil is likely to resume, since the events of July 23-24, 2023, formed two "centers of power" in Russia - the Kremlin and the PMC Wagner (and the forces standing behind the back of the PMC Wagner).

Events in Russia for the umpteenth time are beginning to develop according to a scenario that has already led it to disaster "unsuccessful war - coup d'etat - Troubles". Once Russia fell into this "historical trap", largely arranged for her by other geopolitical forces in the early 20th century. Then the Russian Empire was drawn into an absolutely unnecessary for her First World War. And then, against the background of fatigue from the war and setbacks at the front, there was a revolution in 1917, and after that the bloody civil war broke out in 1918-1922.

At the same time, both in dragging Russia into the war, and especially in the preparation of the February Revolution of 1917 not the least role was played by the same force that contributed to the current Russian geopolitical disaster - the Armenian nationalists. Only at that moment, it was the Dashnaks, and they thought to carve out a "great Armenia" for themselves in the Turkish lands using the Russian military forces. Now, the Armenian lobby near the Kremlin, which forced the Kremlin to impose the practice of separatism everywhere, led to the catastrophe. Ultimately, this led to Moscow's support of separatism in Abkhazia and Samachablo, aggression against Georgia in 2008, Russia's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and support for separatism in Donbass in 2014, and finally, aggression against Ukraine in February 2022.

It is in the war against Ukraine - the origins of the rebellion of the head of the "Wagner" PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin. The insurgency, which is currently destroying the Russian statehood. This PMC, which for many years performed the "shady" and bloody orders of the Kremlin regime in Syria and Africa, was attracted to the war against Ukraine against the background of failures and failures of the regular Russian army.

Apparently, the Armenian lobby was also hoping for the Wagner PMC. PMC mercenaries after Ukraine clearly thought to use it instead of the regular Russian army to support the "Artsakh" separatist project. However, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as it turned out, had his own ambitions, which fully fit into the current global trends.

After all, what were the same leaders of the Armenian lobby thinking, attracting PMCs to achieve their goals and those of the Kremlin, dependent on them? About the fact that ultimately, these "private mercenaries" will help them organize the fake separatist pseudo-states, and, eventually, the national mono-ethnic state of "Greater Armenia" in other countries. Using the precedents and experience of redrawing borders in the same Ukraine.

However, around the world, the phenomenon of growth of PMCs' role in military conflicts is related to another process - the elimination of nation-states as such. They are replaced on the one hand by the global supranational structures "from above", and on the other hand, by corporations and private non-state actors "from below.

PMCs should come to replace the national armies in the "traditional" powers, and even the former empires, not to build the national statehood. And not even to organize the separatist "bantustans," or pseudo-states. PMCs, as well as private companies in other fields, should eventually become the true military mechanisms of the global supranational structures. And to fight for the nationalist ideas of some ethnic group and its "projects" is largely nonsense to them.

Interestingly, in connection with the July 23-24th Prigozhin and Wagner's mutiny almost all separatists - Sukhumi, Tskhinvali, "Artsakh" were in a panic. It became obvious that the confusion would lead to rapid geopolitical weakening of Russia and Russia would simply be forced to abandon the separatists to their fate by evacuating its troops from foreign territories. On July 23-24, 2023, the Armenian lobby in Russia was also at a loss. Some of them hysterically called to "unite around Putin," while others took a wait-and-see attitude.

For Georgia, the current turmoil in Russia, if it continues, could represent both a chance to restore its territorial integrity and a danger. We should not forget that more than 100 years ago, after the Bolsheviks won the civil war in Russia, in 1921 they drowned in blood the state independence of Georgia restored in 1918 and occupied the country. No one knows what will be the power in the nuclear power Russia after it plunges into civil war, how this war will end and what ambitions the new Russian authorities will have and how many authorities there will be in "Russia".

George Kvinitadze