Very interesting information was published by the telegram channel "Kremlin snuffbox", which regularly gives insights into the possible plans of the Russian leadership (https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/2348 ). Here is the full version:

"Abkhazia may be declared part of Russia, and Belarus may be dragged into a war against NATO - three "bad" forecasts have been voiced.

While hot battles are being fought on the fronts, the Kremlin and other decision-making centers are analyzing the situation and preparing scenarios of what will happen next. We have received an interesting report from a group of military, economic, and political specialists. There are no specific names in it, because the report talks about what steps can be taken in the confrontation with the West if the counteroffensive by the AFU is successful in one way or another.

We note several interesting scenarios.

1. Abkhazia may be declared part of the Russian Federation.

Through a referendum and generally according to the scenario of the same DNR and LNR. Why only Abkhazia, but not "South Ossetia"? South Ossetia remains an independent (partially recognized) state. And this element will make it possible to keep the situation in Georgia under control in the future and, if necessary, even to return "South Ossetia" to Georgia in terms of autonomy.

While the accession of Abkhazia will expand the territories of the Russian Federation and show the electorate that the Russians do not abandon their own. As an option, it is proposed to make Abkhazia a resort where state employees of teachers, law enforcers and officials would be sent. This should give impetus to development of the region.

2. Russian troops will return to Karabakh.

Perhaps the most improbable scenario, which could bring even more problems than good. But there is such a scenario and its purpose is to divert the attention of the world community to another hotspot. The report says that the scenario can be realized by simultaneously raising the temperature in Syria and a number of African conflicts. Then the attention from the Ukrainian track will be dispersed and will allow to reduce Western support for Kiev and perhaps even end the EWS on terms favorable to Moscow.

3. Belarus could build a corridor to Kaliningrad.

This is where it is very curious, since we have repeatedly written that there is a threat of losing the Kaliningrad region. (https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/2179) And not even so much militarily as politically. As far as military capabilities are concerned, they have been greatly reduced because of the transfer of troops and equipment to Ukraine. Intelligence suggests a possible strike along the border between Poland and Lithuania to Kaliningrad. To deliberately hit the two countries at once to drive a wedge between them. And yes, both are members of NATO, but there is a calculation for a quick breakthrough" End of post.

As we see from the three scenarios of a possible new aggression of Russia, the most "real" is the annexation of Abkhazia. All the more that it is already occupied by Russian troops, and the outrage of Abkhazian patriots, who do not want to allow buying up of their land and settling it by outsiders, is beginning to bore many in the Kremlin.

In addition, the same "Artsakh" separatists, understanding the difficulty for Russia, which is bogged down in the war in Ukraine, to open a "new front" in the South Caucasus, then "reclaim" Karabakh, may well agree to get "maritime Armenia" instead of "Artsakh" as "another Armenian state" in place of Abkhazia. And evacuate there themselves and become the "elite" if the Karabakh annexation adventure fails. Especially in the case of the annexation of Abkhazia and under the conditions when Armenians have already become the largest ethnic group there, it will not be difficult to do so.

The fact that the annexation of Abkhazia by Russia is quite real is understood by Abkhazian separatists themselves. It is no accident commenting on the information of the Kremlin snuffbox, the Abkhazia Center telegram channel wrote. (https://t.me/abkhazia_center/12366 ):

"The topic of the annexation (https://t.me/abkhazia_center/12364) of Abkhazia to Russia in the Black Sea republic itself is more unpopular than ever. The Kremlin's technologists cannot ignore this circumstance, and if they hope to ignore it, it cannot be called anything other than brainlessness and criminal negligence. But there are hidden springs, which Moscow sees better than they do in Sukhumi. Such attitude is present in Abkhazia when everyone is well fed and safe.

 In the turbulent war years of 1992 Zurab Achba said in an interview: "It's time to understand that Abkhazia is Russia", and years later (when the goals had already been achieved) disavowed the statement, citing fantasies of the newspaper's editors. No one will express such thoughts in Abkhazia now for sure.

And what is a Russian political technologist to do? Right, to correct sentiments by affecting satiety and security. And if in the first case, everything is more or less understandable (subsidies, pensions, the border, export-import, etc.), the second part gives shivers. After all, the most effective option for the annexation of Abkhazia to Russia is a war with Georgia. The conflict is not difficult to organize (remember the recent spring aggravation (https://t.me/abkhazia_center/11328)), and then on a wave of instinctive, reflexive mood to hold a referendum and organize the appeal of "parliament".

That is, the scenario of annexation of Abkhazia by Russia is already visible. And organizing a "war with Georgia" by Russia in order to convince Abkhazians in need of annexation "for protection" will be very easy. It will be enough to start a "military corridor" through Georgia to Armenia and "Artsakh" in order to "save "Artsakh" Armenians from the "genocide". Then, in case of a successful military adventure, the Russian-Armenian aggressors with the help of Russian weapons can get not only Abkhazia and "Artsakh" but also Samtskhe-Javakheti, where the separatist sentiments are extremely strong.

Aleksandr Chkheidze