ANALYTICS
07.10.22 10:30
There is no doubt that what happened in Prague on 6 October 2022 will go down in history. Although no official documents were signed there, it is clear that the peace process in the South Caucasus and the unblocking of communications are reaching the finish line. As part of the creation of Europe's new informal association - the "European Political Community" - leaders from almost all European countries, including the leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia, were invited to Prague. The meeting provided an opportunity to hold another round of peace talks at the highest level between the heads of state, as well as to have an informal conversation. Aliyev, Erdogan and Pashinyan met.
Beyond this key meeting, however, was a quadrilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron, EU Council President Charles Michel and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This meeting in Prague was a continuation of the Brussels peace dialogue initiated by Charles Michel. Recall that it was at the talks in Brussels, held without any Russian mediation, that Armenia officially stated that it accepted the five basic principles of peaceful coexistence put forward by Azerbaijan, including unconditional recognition of territorial integrity.
Most importantly, no matter how much the Armenian revanchists might want it, the Karabakh issue has finally been resolved. It is Azerbaijani territory, everything that happens there is purely an internal matter, and no issues of "Armenians of Artsakh" are discussed at the international level. Ilham Aliyev stressed this once again after the quadrilateral meeting in Prague:
"The Karabakh Armenians are our citizens, it is an internal matter of Azerbaijan. We will decide ourselves when to talk to them. It is our internal issue. We are not going to discuss it with any country," he added. "You know there will be a meeting today: Charles Michel, Emmanuel Macron, Pashinyan and myself. The results of this meeting, I hope, will be positive, there will be progress," Ilham Aliyev noted.
It is clear that Nikol Pashinyan is now under pressure from revanchists who do not accept the new realities and the need to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkey, restore diplomatic relations and recognise internationally recognised borders. But Armenia has no other way. The most important thing for it today is to give up any territorial claims quickly and completely. Otherwise, much more historically grounded claims may arise to the territories on which the Armenian state is located and the question of its further existence will arise.
Interestingly, the meetings and negotiation process are taking place without the participation of Russia, which until recently was the main 'divisive party' in the conflicts in the South Caucasus. For a simple reason - with its policy of "divorce" and border control, Russia has overplayed its hand and got involved in a bloody war in Ukraine, where it is suffering defeats. As a result, Russia is now rapidly weakening and losing geopolitical leverage in all regions of the post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus.
Armenia needs to learn to negotiate with its neighbours without the "Russian bear behind its back". We need to learn to live peacefully and build civilised relations without confrontation.
Certainly, entire generations, brought up on hatred, xenophobia, war and confrontation, find it difficult to perceive the prospect of peace with their neighbours and the absence of grievances against them. However, the alternative prospect - continued war - simply does not give Armenia any chance of further existence. No one will defend it, and Armenia has much more to lose than what it has to give up today and which has never belonged to it.
There is hope that the peace process in the South Caucasus will accelerate in the near future and all issues of a peace agreement, the recognition of borders and unblocked communications will be resolved swiftly. All the more so, the latter is increasingly in the interest of Russia, which has fallen into international isolation because of its aggression against Ukraine. For Russia, each new transit route will acquire a vital importance, and the Zangezur corridor could become the "road of life" at all.
Alexander Gedevanov (Gedevanishvili)
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