ANALYTICS

Turmoil in "China-linked" Sri Lanka - a cautionary tale for Georgia

11.07.22 15:30


It is no secret that China is investing in Georgia's construction and transit infrastructure. Certainly, to a reasonable extent, such investments can be welcomed. However, the absolute Chinese dominance, given the fact that China itself is a very dependent country on global processes, is dangerous. Excessive reliance on China and "Chinese aid" without taking into account the interests of other geopolitical players may lead a state, even one that occupies a highly advantageous transit position, to disaster. And Sri Lanka is today's most telling example of such a collapse of "excessive reliance on China".

 

Sri Lanka is a former British possession of Ceylon, part of British India. And, on the eve of decolonisation, it was not only divided into two main parts - Hindu (India itself) and Muslim (Pakistan), but territories with predominantly Buddhist populations - Burma (Myanmar, officially the Republic of the Union of Myanmar)  and Sri Lanka - were separated from it as independent states.

 

It is worth noting that it is in the smaller states organised in the former British possessions that the British Crown retains the greatest influence. An example is Singapore, where the security of the state, located on the strategic transoceanic sea route on the Malacca Straits, is still, in fact, provided by the British military contingent.

 

 Even though the same explicit British presence in Sri Lanka has long been absent, it is still clear that the strategic importance of Sri Lanka on the routes from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western Indian Ocean is enormous. And other geopolitical players have long been unable to "harness" Sri Lanka to their advantage.

 

In recent years, China has tried to do so. A very detailed and "pro-Chinese" account of this was recently written on the website of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs in the article "Running on the Waves: China's Path to Sea Power Status".

 

https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/columns/sandbox/begushchiy-po-volnam-put-kitaya-k-statusu-morskoy-derzhavy/ :

 

"China has consistently sought to assert its status as a maritime power, and its investment in the construction of some ports further confirms this. In particular, four port projects have been highlighted by Chinese strategists as potential anchor points in the Indo-Pacific region and are worth exploring. Each of them is at different stages of development. These projects are Gwadar port in Pakistan, Koh Rong port in Cambodia, Hambantota port in Sri Lanka and Kyaukphyu port in Myanmar...

 

The port of Hambantota was opened in 2010, but facing payment problems, the Sri Lankan government carried out a debt-for-equity swap, extending a 99-year lease to Chinese state-owned China Merchants Ports (CMP) for $1.12 billion. In 2016, a debt-for-equity swap was offered, giving the Chinese state-owned port operator CMP an 80% stake in the company. Of course, the maritime importance of Hambantota to Beijing has never been in doubt. The port's location at the southern tip of Sri Lanka with access to vital South Asian sea lanes makes it an important commercial asset for China. But Beijing's investment in Hambantota is also of great strategic importance. This is a concern for India because it is involved in conflicts with both Pakistan and Sri Lanka...

 

On 18 January 2020, during Chinese leader Xi Jinping's visit to Myanmar, China and Myanmar signed 33 bilateral agreements, including some projects that involve building an economic corridor between southern China and the port of Kyaukphyu in the Indian Ocean. Railways and deep-water ports have been included in these agreements. Once the port is completed, this Southeast Asian country and its neighbours will be more closely connected, also improving China's access to the world market and reducing its dependence on oil and gas transported through the Malacca Straits." - the article reports.

 

Obviously, a "great Chinese transit maritime route" was being built, with the key ports being, with prospects of land links directly to the PRC, the port of Kyaukphyu in Myanmar, as well as the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. But the current unrest in Sri Lanka, which has already led to the ouster of leaders who have signed agreements with the PRC, is essentially "tearing up" the much carefully constructed "China Sea Route".

 

It was clear from the outset that reinforcement of China in the Indian Ocean did not suit all geopolitical players. So they launched a "special operation" to cause problems for the pro-Chinese authorities in Sri Lanka. And, most interestingly, they did not ignite a long-standing separatist conflict on the island using the second largest ethnic group, the Tamils.  Instead, they took another route - economic.

 

Sri Lanka's economic problems began to escalate "as if by order" after Sri Lanka formally leased the deep-sea port of Hambantota on its southern coast to China for 99 years in December 2017. Making matters worse was the fact that Sri Lanka became subject to covid restrictions unprecedented for 'third world' states in 2020-2021. These restrictions "killed" tourism and agriculture and brought the country into default. From there, the riots were a "matter of technology".

 

The interesting thing is that the riots in Sri Lanka culminated in the storming of government residences at roughly the same time that Boris Johnson resigned as prime minister in the former British metropolis. To some it may seem "coincidental," but given that Boris Johnson "played the long game," the consequences of his decisions will be felt even after he leaves office. In addition, Johnson had a key focus on global transit routes.

 

 

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