One can already say with certainty that the "Artsakh" separatist project is slowly being "dumped" and the Kremlin understands its absolute hopelessness. All the more that in the conditions of critical situation of Russian aggressors "on the Ukrainian front" to keep even one combat-ready unit in the South Caucasus as "peacekeepers" becomes a luxury we cannot afford. According to Kirill Budanov, head of military intelligence of Ukraine, the Russian Federation is weakening its military contingent in Karabakh by "redeploying" troops to Ukraine. Everything is heading towards the fact that the Russian peacekeeping contingent may leave Azerbaijani Karabakh much earlier than November 2024.
Hrant Bagratyan, Armenia's former prime minister in 1993-1996, also said that the Russian military contingent would soon leave Karabakh. According to him, this will take place immediately after the signing of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, because "after that its presence there will be useless. Naturally, immediately after the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Karabakh, all separatist leaders entrenched there will follow the last Russian peacekeepers. Unless, of course, they turn themselves in to the Azerbaijani authorities with the hope of amnesty or commutation of sentences for their crimes against humanity. Such a possibility in the case of voluntary disbandment of the separatist authorities and illegal gangs and surrender of weapons to them has already been promised by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Otherwise, the separatists will simply be eliminated as terrorists.

As a result, the separatists in Khankendi today have "silent panic" and it was well described by the Armenian political scientist Ishkhan Verdyan, who is familiar with the situation in the separatist den: "A curious observation: after the well-known words of Ilham Aliyev about the ruling top leadership in Karabakh, the same top leadership has suspiciously fallen silent. There are no more heroic statements from Araik Harutyunyan, Samvel Babayan and other high-ranking "officials". People are simply silent.

However, only Ruben Vardanyan is not silent with his "we will stand firm till the end", but there are nuances here, too. Firstly, he does not specify this "end" in any way. Maybe he means the end of devolution of power to Azerbaijan? No one has ever specified that from him. Secondly, Ruben, once again, has not committed any serious crimes against Azerbaijan, and there is nothing to grant him amnesty for. That is, the man has some room for maneuvering, and so he maneuvers. And thirdly, he really has too influential acquaintances who, if anything, can ensure his strategic withdrawal. In essence, Vardanian is currently the only person in Karabakh who can more or less safely continue separatist activities.

Everyone else, however, is silent. It seems that the whole of the Karabakh leadership has got the president of Azerbaijan's words down their throats. Aliyev's words may seem unimportant from Armenia, but those to whom these words are addressed are well aware of their seriousness and are therefore well aware of the threat hanging over them.

On the whole, there was no doubt that the assembled people were not patriots of any ideological persuasion, but natural skinheads who at the slightest danger to themselves would run away without even thinking twice. Prodding others to death is not the same as exposing oneself, right? So their knees trembled. So the voices were silent. And so the mighty patriots gave up "Artsakh". End of post.

Nobody expects "Artsakh" separatists in Armenia. Nikol Pashinyan does not need representatives of the "Karabakh clan" claiming to power in Yerevan. Even after avoiding an Azerbaijani prison, they can very quickly end up in an Armenian one. The separatists' rampant corruption allows almost all of them to be prosecuted and tried under Armenian law.

For the separatists Russia remains. But then again, in conditions of war, sanctions and impoverishment of the population, in a quite possible "power struggle" in Russia, no one will give them much food and permission to "settle down" on Russian territories.

And here the last hope for the "Artsakh" separatists is another separatist territory occupied by Russia - the Georgian Abkhazia. In principle, the Armenian "Artsakh" separatists, with the help of their Abkhazian compatriots are already conducting a shadow "purchase" of land and real estate, are gradually moving their families there.

Things are going towards the fact that, like parasites, bloodsuckers that were "ripped off" from the Azerbaijani land, the "Artsakh" separatists want to get their hands on the "new booty". In a new foreign land - the Russian-occupied Abkhazia.

Obviously, the Abkhazian separatist project is also in question. Its fate depends directly on both speed of final elimination of "Artsakh" separatism and possibility of Russia to continue its aggression against neighbouring countries and occupation of their territories. And the latter depends directly on the outcome of the current Ukrainian war.

For example, even the separatist resource Abkhazia Centre was forced to admit that the war in Ukraine "will sooner or later end in one of two possible options:
- Russia will win the war and finally emerge as a Russian-Soviet empire, where Abkhazia's "independence" will not differ much from the sovereignty of the North Caucasus republics - subjects of the Russian Federation;

- Russia will be defeated, Nicaraguan, Venezuelan and Syrian partners will unanimously merge Abkhazia and then the "republic" which has neither its own economy nor political support, will have to negotiate with Georgia and return to its orbit.

Understandably, all the separatists, including those in Abkhazia, are hoping for the first option. The chances of it, based on the current balance of power and the fact that the entire Western world is helping Ukraine, are minuscule. But even if by some miracle Russia manages to either win the war or reduce it to a "draw", prediction by the telegram channel Abkhazia Centre that in such case, Abkhazia will not differ from the "republics of the North Caucasus - subjects of the Russian Federation" needs significant clarification.

The titular nation in Abkhazia will not be Abkhazians, but the Armenians. This is already taken care of by Abkhazian Armenians that dominate the occupied Georgian territory. But the situation for Abkhazians will become disastrous when "Artsakh" separatists move there. They moved to Abkhazia not to be a "second-class"! Armenian Artsakh separatists will try to make Abkhazia into the same mono-ethnic territory as they made of Azerbaijani Karabakh in the year of occupation.

Hence, the conclusion - separatism in any form leads the Abkhazian people to death and loss of their land. Only restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia, where Abkhazia has wide autonomy rights under the Georgian constitution, gives Abkhazian people a chance for rebirth.

Alexander Zakhariadze