The incident that occurred on February 12, 2024, when a sniper from the Yerkrapah union wounded an Azerbaijani serviceman, was the trigger that led to the escalation of tensions. In response to this act of aggression, on the morning of February 13, 2024, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces eliminated the Hay fortified post from which the fire was shot. On the Armenian side, four militants were killed and one was wounded. All of the deceased were members of 'Yerkrap'. The recent escalation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border (which is currently considered provisional until it is officially demarcated and delimited) highlights the danger of formally separating and declaring independence from state military formations. The clashes on the Armenian side involved not the regular army or border guards, but rather the supposedly 'independent' units of the so-called 'Yerkrap' volunteer union.

"Yerkrap" is formally independent from the authorities in Yerevan and is almost in opposition to the current Armenian government led by Nikolai Pashinyan. The formation was created by the previous government, specifically the so-called "Karabakh clan". After Pashinyan came to power, Manvel Grigoryan, the former head of the Yerkrap Volunteer Union, was arrested for stealing weapons and supplies intended for the Khai army and died while under investigation.

However, the Armenian authorities did not disband 'Yerkrap'. Following the defeat in the 44-day war, and particularly after the dissolution of the separatist group 'Artsakh', the Union of Yerkrap Volunteers has become a center of attraction for the most ardent revanchist forces. Unlike the official Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia, which has recently shown increasing orientation towards France, the 'Yerkrapah' Union of Volunteers does not exhibit such 'pro-Western' zeal. On February 13, 2024, European observers were prevented from entering the border by Russian border guards, which prevented them from recording Azerbaijan's alleged 'act of aggression.' 'Yerkrap' appears to be focused on an alliance with Iran and likely has contacts with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Additionally, 'Yerkrap' is more revanchist than the official authorities of Armenia.

Iran is currently implementing a policy of obstructing major international transportation routes with the assistance of its proxies, which are closely associated with the IRGC. The Houthis in Yemen, in particular, have been most successful in impeding international trade. Despite controlling Yemen's capital, Sanaa, the Houthis are not recognized as the legitimate authority in the country by most nations worldwide. The Houthis, a Yemeni Shiite Zaydi movement, receive military and financial support from Iran and its allies, including the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. The Houthis were named after their founder and former leader, Hussein al-Husi, who was killed by the Yemeni army in September 2004. Iran was able to inflict significant damage to international trade through the Houthis. The role of France and global forces in the actions of the Houthis is unclear. The EU economy and Egypt, allied to France, suffer losses due to the reduction of shipping through the Suez Canal.

However, the creation of the Iranian 'empire' by Tehran, the IRGC, and their proxies, which disrupts communications in the Middle East, would not have been possible without the participation of French intelligence services. Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran, France has been Iran's shadow 'navigator,' and even today, France is intertwined with Iran's interests in Armenia. France seeks to pursue an anti-Azerbaijani policy through the EU and its structures, including PACE, with the help of the Hay lobby.

The Houthis and Hay extremists are merely tools in the hands of powerful global forces, which also use Iran, currently in the position of a 'tolerated pariah', as an 'intermediate figure' to 'reformat' international trade.

However, it is important to note that pawns are not spared in the big game and are sacrificed if necessary.

There is a possibility that Armenian proxies, including the 'Yerkrap' or 'Artsakh' separatists who have fled to Armenia, may initiate provocations, raids, or sabotage on international transport communications in the South Caucasus region. Additionally, on the hypothetical Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the 'Yerkrap' conducted 'reconnaissance by combat' to gauge potential responses to their provocations.

Formations such as the 'Yerkrap' Union of Volunteers have the potential to become destabilizing elements in the South Caucasus. They begin by testing their strength on the border and may escalate to actions against transit communications, not only in Azerbaijan but also in Georgia, where there is a dormant separatist center in Samtskhe-Javakheti.

Azerbaijan responded appropriately to the first provocation by 'Yervrapa' on the border. Armenia is considering taking steps towards peace with Azerbaijan, including the opening of the Zangezur corridor. A preliminary agreement on this matter was reached in November 2020. Authorities in Yerevan are warning about the dangers of provocative games on the border. This warning is being directed towards sensible ethnic Hayes, particularly Arthur Martirosyan, an American expert on negotiations and conflict resolution who is a senior consultant at CM & Partners. Martirosyan made this statement during a political talk show on the Hayan TV channel.

According to him, "Armenia still has a chance to save its statehood - to open a corridor for Azerbaijan through the territory of Syunik. Otherwise, the Azerbaijani army will do it itself. If Yerevan does it itself, this road will be under the control of the Russian military, as it is stated in the joint statement of the three countries of November 10, 2020. If not, the road will be opened by force. And let nobody say that they will be able to stop the Azerbaijani army. Pashinyan will not even have time to call Borel, Macron. No one will come to the aid of Armenia!".

Grigol Giorgadze