The Abkhazian and South Ossetian separatists were inspired by the Artsakh separatists from the very first days of their existence. Moreover, these separatist movements were completely copied from the "Artsakh miatsum" and were led and managed from one centre by the same Khai lobby.
Now the so-called "Artsakh" separatists have capitulated after a brief 24-hour war in which Azerbaijani forces "knocked out" almost half of their bandit "army". All the "recognitions" of so-called "independence" of the separatists in Khankendi, Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, all their "international treaties" have been burnt in the internal war for the integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
The separatists in Georgian Abkhazia and Samachablo have learned a lesson - they are next. And their end may come much sooner than they think. As long as they have the backing of the Russian army. But the same Russian army, under the guise of "peacekeepers", was also used by the "Artsakh" separatists. Did it help them much?
The Artsakh separatists hoped to draw Russian peacekeepers into the war, which the Kremlin would immediately reinforce with additional contingents of its troops. Similar to what happened near Tskhinvali in Georgia in August 2008. But that's just it: the Russian "additional contingents" are in the trenches in Ukraine, barely holding the line. There is no one to supplement them. Russia, which is suffering defeats on the Ukrainian front, cannot by definition fight a war on two fronts. Especially as this front could "collapse" at any moment.
So far, Georgia has offered both Abkhazians and Ossetians peaceful reintegration and reconciliation. This is what Azerbaijan offered the Karabakh Khayyas not so long ago. Under the influence of the separatists, the Karabakh Khayyas did not even try to negotiate reintegration with Baku. Although they were offered very favourable and "preferential" living conditions as citizens of Azerbaijan, in reality they would have been a "privileged group" in Azerbaijan.
But the Karabakh Hayyis missed their chance. Dialogue was offered to them twice - and they refused it twice. There will be no third time. Now reintegration will be on Azerbaijan's terms, without any favours and "leniency" for the separatist criminals.
The separatists in Sukhumi and Tskhivali, if they do not want to wait for a similar situation (and no one has forgotten their crimes against the peaceful Georgian population), will have to start a dialogue with the Georgian authorities on reconciliation and amnesty. The Abkhazians and Ossetians themselves must raise the issue of returning to Georgia, even before the Russian occupiers. Especially since Russia, which has been "cornered" and has become an international pariah, is itself interested in reconciliation with Georgia. In this way, Ossetians and Abkhazians who took part in the separatist movement can secure both amnesty and good starting conditions for life as part of Georgia.
Most importantly, peaceful reintegration will avoid unnecessary sacrifices. Such as those suffered by the Karabakh Hayyis in the form of their family members mobilised in illegal formations. The Azerbaijani army "fired on their positions as if in a shooting gallery" on 19 and the morning of 20 September, leaving the separatists no chance. The dead separatist fighters could have been alive and in Azerbaijani Karabakh if they had accepted Azerbaijan's peace and reintegration proposals in time.
Georgia offers Abkhazians and Ossetians reconciliation, living together in one state. And we should take into account the sad experience of Artsakh and agree before it is too late and while the proposals are still in force.