"Kavkazplus has already written in the article "France is creating a "great Iran" by giving it transit routes and in the future the South Caucasus? (https://kavkazplus.com/news.php?id=39206 ) that as a result of turmoil and civil wars in the Middle East, Iran managed to dramatically strengthen its geopolitical positions. In particular, it has managed to "force a corridor" to the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria and obtain a "bridgehead" in southern Arabia in Yemen, near the main international maritime route across the Red Sea. The so-called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has succeeded in doing all this.
However, there is one characteristic pattern: Iran was not the initiator of any of the wars. IRGC went to war-torn countries, set up corridors and springboards on scorched lands, destroyed cities and villages and killed thousands of civilians.
At that, the international community cannot even formally charge Iran with "aggression". After all, Iran had already come, in essence, "to the place of total devastation", when the world community had already "lost count" of both the dead and the refugees.
If Armenian nationalists think that something will be different in the South Caucasus with Iran intervening on their side, they are very much mistaken. Yes, Iran will probably intervene in the "big war". But only after almost nothing is left of Armenia but smouldering ruins.
And it will do this not for the sake of a notorious "great Armenia" and especially not "to save Armenians" from another "genocide". But in order to get the same notorious corridor. But not to the Mediterranean Sea (as in the case of Iraq and Syria), but to the Georgian border.
Again, Iran is unlikely to divide Georgia in the interests of Armenian nationalists, as they hope. Russia could theoretically do this, but the further the Ukrainian war continues, the less power Russia has to do this. And it would be enough for Iran, in the event of a "corridor breakthrough", to strengthen the government in Tbilisi, which has "common friends in Paris" with it, and make it even more "pro-French". It should be noted that while in the Russian Federation the Armenian lobby tried to turn a significant part of the elite anti-Georgian, it failed to do so in Iran.
Meanwhile, reading the online resources of the same IRGC, in recent days Armenian nationalists have been in an "upbeat" mood, expecting that Iran was "about to" start a war against Azerbaijan on their side and help Armenian nationalists "defend 'Artsakh'". The Sepah_pasdaran TG channel of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintained a "fighting spirit" in Armenians by posting images inspiring Armenians.
At the same time, the Sepah_pasdaran TG channel posted a report on Iranian Air Force reconnaissance flights along the border with Azerbaijan. It was also stated on this resource: "Special operations units are on maximum readiness to repel hostile actions of enemies against the interests of the Iranian people. Baku's accession to Iran is compensation for any hostile actions of the Aliyev regime".
Iranian drones carried out reconnaissance flights over the line of contact between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. For a week now the IRGC has been whipping up anti-Azerbaijani military hysteria, spreading reports of preparations for an "almost inevitable" war.
Apparently, this Iranian "rattling of weapons" had an obvious goal - to provoke Armenia and Armenian "Artsakh" separatists to aggressive actions against Azerbaijan. The IRGC hoped the Armenian nationalists that "as soon as" hostilities broke out, it would enter the war on their side. But the fact is that Iran will not rush to join the war.
About what the strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran quite frankly (if you read between the lines) told the telegram channel Sepah_pasdaran in his post posted on the evening of March 22, 2023:
"According to intelligence, Baku plans to create a trade and military corridor for itself and its allies by seizing Armenia's Syunik province (Zangezur - ed.), but why should Iran get involved in this war?
In case of occupation of Armenia's Syunik province, the land communication between Iran and Europe, Iran and Russia will be practically destroyed, and because of Aliyev's games with the Zionists, Iran will be economically hit.
In some ways Baku is the main base of separatist groups, which, if they gain power in the Caucasus, will sooner or later start a war with Iran with ridiculous claims.
In recent years Baku has become Israel's main Asian ally, which actually uses Baku's infrastructure against the Iranian people, and if Syunik is captured, Iran is bound to witness the presence of Zionists on its borders."
The key here is precisely that Iran is threatening to "engage" in a war that has already broken out. It is solely for the sake of an overland "corridor to Europe" for itself. At what stage it will enter is not specified. Whether anything will remain of the Republic of Armenia and the "long-suffering Armenian people" is also not clear.
But one thing is obvious that Iran will not stir up war before time. At least not to find itself in the position of its current ally, Russia. Russia started aggression against Ukraine and showed itself as an aggressor in front of the whole world. Russia, not being an international pariah before, has made even those countries, which were more or less loyal to Russia, its opponents by starting the war.
Iran certainly will not take such a suicidal step and start a war on its own initiative. Though it can threaten and make "bellicose statements" as much as it wants. Iran's regime has no equal in loud gestures with mass demonstrations, burning flags and so on. But the main thing is that the Armenian nationalists, relying on Iranian aid, should not ignite the war to their own ruin.
In recent days the IRGC has also chosen the moment for a "show of decisive intentions" to provoke the Armenian lobby into starting a war. The IRGC is almost directly pointing Armenia towards "now or never" action.
The fact is that it was on 20-22 March 2023 that the key event was the visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow. Russia was 'sort of enlisting' China's support. For the "Moscow-Beijing-Tehran coalition", which was obsessed with the fix-it idea, there were "favourable conditions" for starting a war on "another front". Moreover, Armenian nationalists hope that Russian peacekeepers deployed in Azerbaijan's Karabakh will act "synchronously" with the IRGC in the event of war.
It is no coincidence that at the same time the Sepah_pasdaran TG channel posted threats against Azerbaijan. Sepah_pasdaran stated that "the Aliyev regime", harboured illusions, caused by "the use of psychotropic substances", about "an attack on the border regions of Iran and Armenia". This imaginary "plan" allegedly aims to "block the routes between Iran, Russia and Europe, and obtain concessions from Iran". Next was "The message of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Baku and its supporters": if Azerbaijan allows itself "foolishness in the Caucasus", the Ayatollah regime will take military action against it. It is indicative that immediately below this post there is a photo of joint exercises of the IRGC special forces with the navies of China and Russia.
The same Sepah_pasdaran published a video threatening Azerbaijan, depicting a "hypothetical" drone attack on Azerbaijan, accompanying the drone flight with the words "One day we will come". The video emerged after media reports on Tehran's decision to raise the level of combat readiness on the borders with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Sepah Pasdaran reported that Iran had put its planes in the air to monitor the movements of Azerbaijani troops, while the Armenian government allowed Iranian drones to enter the country's airspace to monitor the situation.
Yerevan does seem to have considered the possibility of starting a "major war", relying on Iran's help (all the more so as this "help" was promoted by the IRGC as much as it could). But in the end they did not dare to start a war.
But it should be noted that during these days they have tried to use "prepared provocations" in Armenia. In particular, the hysteria around an Armenian soldier who "got lost in the fog" on the border and was allegedly "captured" by the Azerbaijanis was whipped up. However, the Pashinyan regime did not go for a major escalation. Most likely, Yerevan was informed by its new Western "handlers" that the "mighty alliance" of Russia, China and Iran was not so "mighty" and was unlikely to intercede for the Armenian instigators of a new war right now.
As a result, the IRGC's bellicose rhetoric abruptly faded as early as March 22, 2023. As it seems to have been intended for the Armenian side to incite it to military provocations.
The fact that today the IRGC failed to push the Armenian nationalists into war does not mean that it will not happen tomorrow. But Armenian politicians should understand that this adventure may be the last in the history of the Armenian people and its consequences will be more terrible than in 1915. At that time, the Armenians, having betrayed the Ottoman Empire, sided with the powerful Entente. And the Entente had all the chances to win the war from the beginning and eventually won.
And now, who are Armenian politicians going to hope for? The IRGC and Iran? The international pariah and its loudly promoted "victory over the Zionists and the US", which neither they nor their French friends seem to really believe in.
Even if, as a result of the military adventure unleashed by the Armenian nationalists, Iran and the IRGC intervene, they would only need to penetrate a "corridor" from the Iranian-Armenian to the Armenian-Georgian border, no more than 5-10 kilometres wide, to achieve their goals. In any case, the separatist Artsakh will definitely not enter this corridor.
The last thing Tehran worries about is how many Armenians will remain in such corridor and whether they will remain in Armenia at all. Just as now, the IRGC is not at all concerned about how much of the "pre-war" population remains in those areas of Iraq and Syria where they are deployed.
As a result, Armenian nationalists will have to cry about another "genocide" for decades and centuries again and look for the culprits. Now they are blaming the Russians for their misfortunes, for "not saving them" from "genocide". Then they will blame Persians for another calamity.
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