The insidious, but elegant game of "pre-emptive" betrayal of Russia by Armenian nationalists - the "brothers-in-arms", the separatists in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali seem to have no rest. Yes, of course, by betraying Russia, the Armenian nationalists are guaranteed to lose any hope of "miatsum" of "Artsakh". But still, they retain their statehood, and even hope to "gain" something from the looting and "plundering" of the remnants of Russia.

Most importantly, "escape routes" and "emergency airfields" have long been provided for Armenian nationalists, they hope for new masters and patrons - France and Iran. At the very least, the most cunning of them will move to California and Marseilles and enjoy the hospitality of the "kind-hearted" Americans and the French, as "refugees from "Artsakh".

What the Ossetian and Abkhaz separatists have to do is not clear. Especially the latter, even if no one drives them from their homeland. Trophy homes and flats in Sukhumi and Gagra will have to be abandoned and returned to their rightful owners, while their own homes in abandoned Abkhazian villages are often abandoned. They have no means and most importantly, no diligence to establish a normal life, and Russian subsidies and handouts on which they got used to live all these years are certain to stop.

The older generation has forgotten how to earn a living by their own labour and wits. And parents, corrupted by looting and sponging, have not taught the younger generation of Abkhazians to earn money by honest work.

The Abkhaz and Ossetians have no choice but to go to Russia and settle down there. Russia by all indications is sinking into poverty and quite possibly into turmoil. Soon there will not be enough work for Russians themselves, and they will have to compete for jobs and a piece of bread not only with Russians, but with much more hard-working and adapted to life Uzbeks and Tajiks.

In fact, the separatists have brought up an entire lost generation. They not only corrupted them with separatist ideology, brought them up in hatred towards their Georgian brothers. They deprived them of their future by creating an illusion that the separatist sponging will continue forever. They are responsible for the demographic catastrophe that struck both Ossetians and Abkhazians. After all, these are the only undoubtedly endangered peoples of the Caucasus today.

The separatists contributed to the infestation of youth with crime and drug addiction, which is crippling Abkhazian and Ossetian youth. Under conditions of confusion of the separatist authorities and reduction of "food" from Russia, bloody confrontations among local criminals became more frequent. For example, on February 28th 2023 a young man was killed in broad daylight in Tskhinvali who was travelling with his family in his car. As a result of the shooting, a young child also received two gunshot wounds.

Similar episodes of killing and shooting in the separatist territories are happening more and more. And if Russia, which is concerned about defeats "on the Ukrainian front", stops dealing with the separatist territories, even if Georgia, unwilling to go to the military solution to restore its territorial integrity, does not force the reintegration of Abkhazia and Samachablo, chaos might reign there.

Most importantly, the separatists really do not know what to do in case of Russia's defeat. Both the proxy authorities and the "opposition" that has been removed from their troughs of power do not know what to do. All their desperate attempts to appeal to the West and seek "contacts" and "recognition" there have failed. All their desperate attempts to appeal to the West, to seek "contacts" and "recognition" from the West have failed.

The attempt to involve Armenian nationalists and their diasporas in their rescue failed predictably from the outset. The Armenian power brokers simply "ditched" them, making it clear that they were not going to help anyone except the "long-suffering people". Not even to their former supporters and "fellow travellers".

Neither Abkhazian and Ossetian separatists are able to obtain favour of the West even at the cost of betraying their still recent "brother Serbs" by hypocritical enthusiasm about "independence of Kosovo" with the desire to prove that Kosovo "is the same as Abkhazia and "South Ossetia". There is a discreet "thank you" in the West, but it flatly refuses to connect the Kosovo precedent with the occupied Georgian territories.

While desperately trying to get something in the future, Abkhazian and Ossetian nationalists and separatists are beginning to master an area that was quite unusual for them until recently - Russophobia. They take their cue from the same Armenian nationalists who, if you listen to them today, have already become "victims of the Russian occupation" and Russian imperialism.

While Abkhazians quite reasonably recall the genocide that the Russian Empire organised against their people in the 19th century (the main question is why they have not remembered this before?), Ossetian separatists, who until recently had a "cult of great Russia" are more complicated. But they are not at a loss and continue the same path of finding historical grievances and proof of "Russia's perfidy". They say it's all Russia's fault, it "conquered" South Ossetians and "subjugated" them to Georgia. And now, they say, Russia is behaving towards Abkhazians and Ossetians "vilely and treacherously" being ready to surrender them to Georgia at any time.

Meanwhile, until recently, Abkhazian and Ossetian separatists, who used to pay lip service to "fear of Georgian aggression", in reality were waiting for new aggravation in the South Caucasus and opening of the "second front". But Georgia is not falling for provocations and is not engaged in a suicidal war with Russia. They perfectly understand that even the Russian army that was exhausted on the Ukrainian front has enough strength to turn Georgia into ruins. And now another, essentially anti-Russian, thesis that Russia "dares" to improve relations with Georgia behind their back is becoming popular among the separatists.

For instance, here is a post by Sid[æ]mon, an Ossetian nationalist telegram channel.

"People do not really 'get it' that today Moscow and Tbilisi have the best relations since 6 May 2004, when Putin organised a chic gift to Saakashvili - he ordered the removal of Adjarian leader Abashidze to Russia. The move made war in South Ossetia inevitable.

Twenty-five days later, Georgia moved special forces (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/479204) from broken Adjara to South Ossetia, 'unfreezing' the conflict.

Two months later, on the night of 7 to 8 August 2004, residents of Tskhinval woke up to a mortar attack on the city. For the next few days, Georgian troops attempted to break into the South Ossetian capital. Fortunately, without success.

The war of 2004 was short-lived. The Ossetian political elite should finally realize that there will be no return to 23 February 2022. The world will no longer be the same, and one should have thought about what place the Ossetian people will occupy in the new reality yesterday".

The same Sid[æ]mon is forced to confess in one of his posts:

"The Georgian political elite in the Caucasus is a grandmaster playing chess with kindergarteners. A great people, a great culture. I cannot stop admiring them!

It is true that the separatists already have "glimpses of historical insight". But the Ossetian and Abkhaz separatists for over 30 years, alas, did not listen to their Georgian brothers, but to representatives of the "most ancient people" - the Armenian nationalists. It seemed to them that it was Armenians who were "grandmasters", who had "capital, diaspora and support throughout the world". Ossetian and Abkhazian nationalists did not have any questions about how these "grandmasters" managed to lead their people to the catastrophe of 1915 and other geopolitical failures through a series of betrayals. By going along with the "ancient grandmasters" and "playing along" with them, they almost completely lost the future of their peoples.

The only way to save Ossetians and Abkhazians is immediate reconciliation with their brothers, Georgians, and reintegration into united Georgia. But those of Ossetians and Abkhazians who are thinking about the future of their peoples need to work in this direction now, without wasting precious time in order to put together a "clever" combination of betrayal of Russia and "gaining favour and recognition" from the new masters. Without real reconciliation with the Georgian people the separatists will face a catastrophe in which they will drag their people.

Alexandre Zakhariadze