British military intelligence in another report has drawn attention to the relocation of an Iranian drone launch site from occupied Ukrainian Crimea, where it was originally located, to the Krasnodar region.
"The change of launch site is likely due to Russian concerns about the vulnerability of Crimea, as well as being convenient for resupply from the weapons' likely arrival point, Astrakhan," British analysts speculate. And their assumption is confirmed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' increasingly frequent regular strikes on the occupier's military airfields in Crimea.
We should remind you that Krasnodar Krai of the Russian Federation directly borders with occupied Georgian Abkhazia where until recently the separatist regime in Sukhumi considered Russian occupants as a "guarantor" of their "security" and impunity. But the situation is rapidly changing.
After the Ukrainian drone attacks on the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and especially the attack on the bases of the Russian strategic aviation near Ryazan and Engels in the Saratov region, it became clear that the entire territory of the separatist Abkhazia (which is much closer to Ukraine than to Ryazan or Engels) is under attack. Both from the sea and from the air.
Moreover, since Russian occupation troops are illegally stationed in Abkhazia, this territory becomes a "legitimate target" of the Ukrainian armed forces for retaliatory strikes. At that, the base in Gudauta is of particular importance to the Russian Federation as it is situated at a relative "distance" from the theatre of military operations, compared to Russian military bases and airfields in the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov regions and Krasnodar Krai that are already under attack from Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is getting more and more "long-range" means of destruction. Therefore, it is not ruled out that after some time the aggressors will move the launch sites of their drones from the Krasnodar region even further from the front line. Including, quite possibly, in the occupied Abkhazia. And this means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to strike back at this Georgian territory for as long as it is illegally occupied by Russian troops and used by them as a "rear" and a platform for strikes against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Gudauta, where the Russian military base is located, is the last hotbed of compact residence of the dying out ethnic Abkhazian population under the occupation. Since in Sukhumi and Gagra Abkhazians have long been a minority and are inferior in numbers to the Armenian community, which dominates here and is rapidly increasing in size. Another centre of compact settlement of Abkhazians, the town of Tkvarcheli and its surroundings, but under the occupation and domination of the separatist regime has become almost completely deserted, having lost 9/10 of its pre-war population.
Ultimately, the occupants could very well "cover up" the Abkhaz population in order to carry out strikes and drone launches from Gudauta against Ukraine. Thereby turning the remnants of the already small Abkhaz ethnos into a "target" for retaliatory strikes by the AFU.
The Abkhazian public will soon realize (the main thing is not too late) that military bases and locations of the Russian occupation troops next to their homes pose a threat to life and security of Abkhazians as long as the war in Ukraine continues.