ANALYTICS

"Yes, this is capitulation" - separatists and Armenian nationalists need to accept the inevitable.

28.09.22 10:30


It is high time for the separatists in the South Caucasus (both in Khankendi and in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali) to understand that their time has passed and the only thing they can "bargain" for themselves today is conditions of "honourable surrender" and reduced responsibility for their crimes. But they need to hurry up for that. And here, it is very relevant to analyze the recent speeches of a man whose name was associated with the "victories" of Armenia and "Artsakh" separatists in the 90s, namely, the former president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

 

This politician was once able to put the Russian military machine at the service of Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan and, in fact, used Russian bayonets to seize Karabakh in Azerbaijan. Similarly, the Armenian lobby was able at about the same time to put the Russian military machine at the service of the separatists in Abkhazia, resulting in ethnic cleansing of the Georgian population and the expulsion of over 300,000 refugees.

 

However, unlike other Armenian nationalists and separatist leaders, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was well aware that using Russia's military might indefinitely and "hiding behind Russian backs" would not work. That is why at one time, after the first Karabakh war, he proposed that Armenia make peace with Azerbaijan by returning the territories around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and try to negotiate the status of Karabakh. Levon Ter-Petrosian then warned that in the future he would have to make peace with Azerbaijan on much worse terms.

 

However, the Dashnaks and Karabakh clan, led by Robert Kocharian, were categorically against not only such a peace agreement but also against any territorial concessions. Although at the time Azerbaijan was prepared to consider broad autonomy for Karabakh within itself. This was the maximum concession that the Azerbaijani state could agree to and Levon-Ter Petrosyan was well aware of this at the time.

 

Everyone remembers well what happened next. Organizing a terrorist attack in the Armenian parliament in October 1999, the "Karabakh clan" led by Robert Kocharyan not only seized all the power in the country, but also "buried" the agreement on the beginning of de-occupation of Azerbaijani lands, which had already been prepared by that time. And further Armenian nationalists and "Karabakh clan" emboldened by the fact that in Russia in the same 1999 Vladimir Putin, a graduate of the KGB-FSB, came to power, categorically did not agree to peace and the return of Azerbaijani lands, assuming that the actual support of Russia of their aggression against the neighboring country will be eternal.

 

Years have passed. Azerbaijan has risen and strengthened, Armenia has degraded. The "Artsakh" separatists degraded even more and, as a result, the Armenian-populated areas of Karabakh were deserted, with most of the capable population simply leaving. The 44-day war showed what Armenia could do without Russian support.

 

Nowadays, the situation of Armenian nationalists and Armenian separatists, who hoped for endless support from Russia, is even more deplorable. Russia has shown its weakness militarily with its aggression against Ukraine. Russia's current total mobilisation can be seen as a gesture of desperation: at a time when the country is technically lagging militarily, it will only lead to more thousands of deaths.

 

With regard to nuclear blackmail the situation is even more deplorable: if it comes to nuclear war Russia will by definition not be able to win it. But the ultimate destruction of Russian statehood could be a very logical outcome of such a gamble.

 

Therefore, smart people like Levon Ter-Petrosyan honestly admit that the "Artsakh" separatists no longer have any chance. He urges Armenia to make peace before it is too late. At the same time, he acknowledges that this is capitulation, but nothing better can be offered today.

 

Levon Ter-Petrosyan, in an interview with Petros Ghazaryan on Public Television, stated bluntly: "This is a moment of difficult decisions. Treaties must be signed, both with Azerbaijan and Turkey. There is no alternative. If a document is not signed, if peace is not made with these two neighbours, we can no longer restore the 70-year-old reality of the Soviet Union. We will have to build the state again".

 

Regarding the illusions of the revanchists, led by Robert Kocharian, Levon Ter-Petrosian said: "The opposition believes that by removing Pashinyan, it will be possible to avoid painful decisions. This is naive. No matter who comes, he or she will sign a poorer document. We need to understand what they want from Armenia and choose the least painful solution".

 

On the substance of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, Levon Ter-Petrosian was frank: "Yes, this is capitulation. Circumstances have led to this. There is no tragedy, stronger states have gone through this... If we can come to a solution today more or less, but if these internal disturbances continue, everyone already feels like the next president of the Republic of Armenia, we will make it more difficult, we will weaken more, the demands of Turkey and Azerbaijan will increase. If we continue like this for half a year, we won't have a country. We would have normal, maybe much more constructive relations with Russia if it wasn't for this new reality, now everything is mixed up, I mean the Russian-Ukrainian war. Now a much more dangerous situation has been created for us, in the sense that the Russian Federation had its role here and has always fulfilled it", Levon Ter-Petrosyan notes.

 

And most importantly, Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated directly that the "Artsakh" issue has already been resolved, making it clear that there is no "Artsakh" in the territory of Azerbaijan and there will be no more, and the separatists' hope for Russia is in vain: "The "Artsakh" issue has already been resolved, I do not want to deprive people of their hope, but Armenia is not an actor in "Artsakh" now. The key to solving the Artsakh issue was in Russia's hands before this war, now Russia has many problems, this key may be lost somewhere. Now can you expect anything from Russia?" - Levon Ter-Petrosyan asked rhetorically.

 

It should be noted that the issue of other separatists, primarily from Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, has also been "resolved". Russia can no longer help them. On the contrary, they need Russia's help. "Cannon fodder" for the war in Ukraine. But even if they send the gene pool of their people to certain death in Ukraine, they will not be able to save the Russian military machine from destruction. If all Abkhazians and Ossetians were to fall in the Ukrainian steppes, their "fake" independence is still doomed. Moreover, the same fate is clearly wished to the Abkhazian people by those who seek their land, including the same Armenian nationalists, who, losing the historic Azerbaijani lands, have already "looked after" Abkhazia for "new Armenia". The deaths of small nations, who once believed the separatists in the latest adventure of a degraded empire, will absolutely not be justified.

 

Similarly, there will be no justification for the Armenian people's new sacrifices if they listen to the revanchists and engage in a new war with Azerbaijan. There will be new losses, new refugees, who are unlikely to be welcomed by Russia. Those in Armenia who are now calling for an armed confrontation with Azerbaijan should think about this. Any illusions about the "status of Artsakh" must already be discarded. There is no "Artsakh" and there will never be any more. We need to think about how to integrate those Karabakh Armenians who want to be citizens of Azerbaijan into Azerbaijani society and settle those of them who do not want to live in Azerbaijan and intend to leave it in the Republic of Armenia.

 

Yet things are heading towards the point where the 'Artsakh' separatists and representatives of the Karabakh clan can now destroy the Armenian statehood itself. The same Levon Ter-Petrosyan revealed very important details of the meeting of the ex-presidents with Catholicos Garegin II, where Robert Kocharian was present, directly accusing the revanchists that now, because of their ambitions, the very existence of the Armenian state is at stake.

 

According to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the current Armenian opposition and its leader Robert Kocharyan are engaged in idle and futile hot air: "You will not hear a single sensible proposal from Kocharyan, Dashnaks and others, their political thought is completely limited to the slogans "Nikol is a traitor", "give us power and we will do something", "let us get rid of traitor power and something will happen" or other similar nonsense..." - is how Levon Ter-Petrosyan assesses the current political situation in Armenia.

 

The first president of Armenia says that the idea of consolidation, which he proposed at a meeting with Garegin II, was not welcomed. Judging by the howls raised by the Kocharian media, it was Kocharian who rejected the idea of 'nationwide consolidation' in Armenia. Kocharian's latest interview also suggests that he is only interested in gaining power at the moment. At what cost, at what expense, or over what ruins he reigns is of no concern to Kocharyan at all.

 

Levon Ter Petrosian also believes that with the current fragmented and undermined political system, and the ongoing power struggle, Armenia faces even more difficult days. Today Robert Kocharian and the revanchists are still categorically against peace with Azerbaijan. They still dream of returning to power on Russian bayonets, hoping for the success of Russia's adventure in Ukraine, which is doomed by all accounts.

 

As a result, Armenia is wasting time when it could have made the best possible peace and cooperation with its neighbours without questioning the future of its statehood. For now, Yerevan has a chance to conclude such a peace with the least losses. But the "price of agreement" may rise sharply tomorrow, and if the revanchists start a war, it may raise the question of Armenian statehood altogether.

 

 

 

Giorgi Kvinitadze

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