1 August is a significant date. That was the day World War I broke out in 1914. The background to this war is also well known. It was the assassination by Serbian terrorists in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary. It is also known why the Entente countries, including the then Russian Empire, "allowed much" to Serbian extremists.  A strategic thoroughfare, the Baghdad Railway, was to pass through Serbia, giving Germany direct access to the Indian Ocean through the Ottoman Empire, which did not suit the British Empire. The conflict in the Balkans was seen as a way of thwarting these designs. The conflict eventually escalated into a world war.

After the escalation in the ethnic Serb-populated areas of self-proclaimed Kosovo on July 31 and the night of August 1, many also began to speak of an almost inevitable war that would escalate into a world war. But the situation was surprisingly quickly defused. Kosovo authorities postponed for a month the re-registration of Serbian number plates of Serbs living in Kosovo (which was the cause of the conflict). The Serbian authorities also lowered the temperature of their rhetoric. It has become obvious that there will be no "big war" in the Balkans. Moreover, in the current geopolitical configuration, it is unlikely to take place here at all.

Serbia as an independent geopolitical player, or even as an "important vassal" of any significant geopolitical power, has long been done away with. Transit flows have long bypassed Serbia. The Serbian authorities have been using the rhetoric of 'friendship with Russia' only by word of mouth and 'by inertia', while the country has long been surrounded by NATO members, and is seeking NATO and EU membership. Where, by the way, the self-proclaimed Kosovo is also striving for. Albania and Montenegro, which broke away from Serbia, are already in NATO. And by the way, Montenegro, which is actually populated by the same Serbs, is recognising Kosovo's "independence".

There are very many analogies between Serbia and Armenia. Both countries are paid lip service to being Russia's "allies". But both have experienced pro-Western Maidans. Purely pro-Western politicians, Aleksandar Vucic and Nikola Pashinyan respectively, are in power. Moreover, the Serbian prime minister is an expressly lesbian LGBT woman, Ana Brnabić. In Armenia, however, LGBT representatives have not yet been appointed to such positions, but judging by the fact that a transgender person has already spoken in the Armenian parliament, things are yet to come in that sphere.

The Serbs have long since extradited their "friend of Russia" deposed ex-President Slobodan Milosevic to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, where he died in prison. By analogy, it would be the same if Armenians had extradited Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan and other masterminds of the genocide of the Azerbaijani population in Karabakh, particularly in Khojaly, to Azerbaijan for trial.

However, both in the case of Armenia and Serbia, Russia is forced to continue to play the game of supposedly "unbreakable friendship and alliance". However, there are almost no pro-Kremlin revanchists left in Serbia with real claims to power. Armenia still has them (from the Karabakh clan), but they are rapidly marginalized and after Russia withdraws its peacekeepers from Karabakh and eliminates the last pockets of separatism, they will be finally removed from the political scene. But one thing Serbia has in common with Armenia is that Russia will not go to war for them today.

The current escalation in Kosovo was clearly orchestrated. It came after Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti met with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington. At that meeting, Vjosa Osmani said that Russia continues to destabilise Europe, including the Western Balkans, and that Kosovo needs US support in this regard. And it was most likely the US that instructed the Kosovo authorities on the night of August 1 to make temporary concessions to the Serbs.

There is a geopolitical game "on the verge of war", without escalating into a war proper, even a local one. The purpose is to demonstrate Russia's inability to have any influence on the situation in the Balkans and, on the contrary, the ability of the US to "manage" the situation at its own discretion. The Russian Federation is held hostage here by the fact that for decades it has proclaimed itself "the only ally of the Serbs".

But today, even with all its will, Russia cannot help the Serbs. Especially, in fact, under Serbia's pro-Western government. In addition, all the main Russian forces are bogged down in the war in Ukraine. And no matter how much the Armenian nationalists and revanchists want to pit Russia against Turkey for the sake of the notorious "Artsakh", Russia will not go for it.

Nevertheless, Armenian nationalists and the Armenian lobby in Russia sharply took "the side of the Serbs". Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan even began announcing "World War III". And after the situation was defused, she wrote that "the Third World War has been postponed for a month". If we consider that Margarita Simonyan, "on the other side of the front" is playing the role of a militant and "ura-patriotic" provocateur, everything falls into place.  There is a combination to once again "humiliate Russia" and reduce its geopolitical influence. In the case of Kazakhstan Margarita Simonyan and her husband Tigran Keosyan have already "done their best" with their provocative statements. Now they are "trying" with Serbia.

Kavkazplus