ANALYTICS

Armenia Agrees to Azerbaijan's Terms and Hastens to Conclude Peace

22.03.22 17:00


It appears that an understanding of the critical situation in which the Republic of Armenia finds itself makes the leadership in Yerevan promptly agree to Azerbaijani proposals for peace. As long as they remain in force, and as long as Armenia's situation has not become even worse.

 

On March 21, 2022 at the session of the constant parliamentary commission on foreign relations, the head of MFA of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan in fact answered with consent to the proposal from 5 points which the MFA of Azerbaijan sent to Yerevan on March 10, 2022:

 

1. Mutual recognition of each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of state borders and political independence;

 

2. Mutual confirmation by the states of the absence of territorial claims against each other and their assumption of a legal obligation not to make such claims in the future;

 

3. Azerbaijan and Armenia are obliged to refrain from threatening each other's security in international relations, from using threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity and from other circumstances inconsistent with the purposes of the UN Charter;

 

4. Delimitation and demarcation of the state border, establishment of diplomatic relations;

 

5. Opening of transport communication and communications, establishment of other relevant communications and cooperation in other areas of mutual interest.

 

In response to these proposals, Ararat Mirzoyan said the following: "We think that there is nothing unacceptable in the proposals passed to us by the Azerbaijani party on March 10".

 

True, "for internal use" Ararat Mirzoyan started a demagogy that allegedly "these points are not fully affecting the comprehensive agenda of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan: "In our answers we consider the address to the rights of Armenians of "Artsakh" and the issue of "Artsakh's" status to be key. On this holistic basis we are ready to start negotiations with Azerbaijan.

 

But the thing is that Azerbaijan doesn't intend to hold any talks with anyone concerning territories, Karabakh and its citizens living on it, including those of Armenian nationality. Baku won't even listen to the opinion of Yerevan in this regard. The issue of "Artsakh" or as the Armenian nationalists call the foreign lands is closed once and for all.

 

Yerevan must realize that either they seize the moment and make peace with Azerbaijan as soon as possible, while the proposal of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry is still in force, or if they miss this chance, the next proposal will be much more painful for them.

 

Meanwhile, time and the international situation are not working for Yerevan, and the most far-sighted politicians there are beginning to understand this.

Especially since Russia, the guarantor of Armenia's state existence, has found itself in a difficult situation because of its aggression against Ukraine.

 

As a result, Armenia's security is under real threat. It has already become known that the Russian Federation plans to transfer the most combat-ready units from the Russian base in Armenia to the war against Ukraine. This was stated in the operational information of the General Staff of the AFU as of 18:00 on March 18, 2022: "Continuing attempts to restore the combat effectiveness of certain units involved in combat operations, the military leadership of the Russian Federation plans to transfer some units from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to the territory of Ukraine," the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said in a statement.

 

This message indicates the real problems of the Russian Federation, which simply does not have enough strength to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, and especially to defend such "ally" as Armenia.  Sanctions against the Kremlin are just beginning to take effect. "By inertia" there are no catastrophic problems in the Russian economy yet. Russia's defeat in Ukraine is not yet obvious to everyone, although the "blitzkrieg" has clearly failed. The cities and villages of Russia are only beginning to receive the first funeral parcels from Ukraine, and the population has not yet realized the full gravity of the war into which the Kremlin regime has dragged the country.

 

And what will happen if the problems of the Russian Federation worsen? If the elite and the people realize who is leading the country to disaster? All this may well lead to the replacement of the "Armenian-loving" authorities in the Kremlin by people who do not owe anything to the Armenian lobby and generally intend to remove Russia from the influence of the Armenian lobby?  In this case, the situation in Yerevan will be catastrophic.

 

That is why the Armenian government is in a hurry to conclude peace on Azerbaijan's rather "soft" terms. If they do not hurry up and seize the chance, they will have to conclude peace on harsher terms.

 

 

 

Kavkazplus

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