On Sunday evening 23 January 2022 the President of Armenia, Armen Sarkissian, announced his early resignation. In a statement on his website, Armen Sarkissian attributed his decision to his lack of constitutional capacity to influence policy, as well as to attacks on him by various political forces.

"The President does not have the necessary tools to influence domestic and foreign policy processes at this difficult time for the country and the people. At this difficult time for our country, when we need unity, the institution of the President must not become an object of gossip and conspiracy theories, which distract the public's attention from the most important problems," Armen Sarkissian said in a statement.

Mr Sarkissian calls the current situation in Armenian politics a national crisis and explains that he could not influence it, again due to the lack of constitutional powers.

"We have a paradoxical situation where the president is supposed to be the guarantor of statehood, without actually having any real instruments," complained Sarkisian.

Armen Sarkissian is known to have clashed with the Prime Minister and the real leader of the country, Nikol Pashinyan, on many issues in recent times.

The motives of the resignation, which have already been announced by the ex-president himself, suggest that Armen Sargsyan left not because he is "tired and wants to retire". On the contrary, he explicitly states that he "lacks power".

This resignation looks like a well-considered move to return to power later, but with much more real power. Not necessarily as a president. Since the prime minister has more real power in modern Armenia than the president, it is possible that Sarkisian would not mind becoming a "full-time" prime minister.

However, not now, but after "certain events" have taken place, which he clearly wants nothing to do with, and there are quite objective prerequisites for that.

The current global geopolitical situation suggests that Armen Sarkissian's resignation has been coordinated with the geopolitical players of the "first level". In order for Armen Sarkissian to "sit on the bench" and return to power as the " saviour of the nation" in triumph at the right moment.

In fact, in the near future the Armenian authorities will be forced to take steps that are extremely painful for the Armenian national consciousness contaminated by nationalism. First, the Zangezur corridor will have to be unblocked. The second is to delimit and demarcate the borders with Azerbaijan and, at the same time, completely and irrevocably renounce the so-called "Artsakh" and its claims to Karabakh's Azerbaijani territories. But most importantly, it is likely that in the next few weeks Armenia will have to decide whose side it will take in the emerging conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

This conflict could escalate to a military phase and this has been obvious for a long time. And the Russian Armenian lobby, the same Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov-Kalontarov, who is obsessed with redrawing borders, plays no small part in the escalation of tensions around Ukraine. Interestingly, until recently the second man in power in Ukraine was also an Armenian nationalist, Arsen Avakov. This introduced ambiguity into the situation and drastically weakened Ukraine's position as a state and its security. Therefore, last year, Arsen Avakov was "removed" from real power in Ukraine and it is unlikely that this decision was made without the approval of his main "handler" the Vatican.

Meanwhile, Armen Sarkissian has two such "first-level "curators" - along with the Vatican it is also the UK, which today does not hide its military support to Ukraine, supplying weapons and sending military specialists there.

Armenia is sort of formally Russia's CSTO ally and, moreover, has recently "shone" in this capacity. The deployment of Russian troops as "CSTO forces" in Kazakhstan on behalf of the organisation was announced by none other than its current chairman, Nikol Pashinyan.

What will be Armenia's position in the Ukrainian situation, given that Armenia's allied obligations to Russia under the CSTO are not going anywhere and it is the Armenian lobby that drags Russia into the conflict. The war may well spread to the South Caucasus. After all, the Russian Federation is clearly hostile to independent Georgia.

Georgia is also subject to a policy of ultimatums about its inadmissibility for NATO membership, as is the case with Ukraine. The Armenian separatists in the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Jvakheti continue to rely on Russia.  There are practically no painless solutions for the Armenian leadership here. The powerful Russian Armenian lobby will not allow Armenia to maintain "neutrality", and any attack against Ukraine and especially Georgia will eventually hit Armenia.

Armenian leader Armen Sarkissian managed to avoid linking his name to Armenia's catastrophic defeat during the 44-day war, citing a "lack of authority". But in the current geopolitical situation, given his experience and the demand for him as a diplomat, it is unlikely that he will be able to "avoid getting his name dirty".

Hence, it is quite logical that Armen Sargsyan decided to "step down" from power in Armenia for a while, leaving Nikol Pashinyan to "solve problems" and "get dirty". All the more so because in the situation with Kazakhstan Pashinyan has already had time to "get dirty", not only by announcing the introduction of CSTO troops in that country, but also by sending there an Armenian contingent. In case the political situation in the country is not calm again, the Kazakhs can "remind Armenia of that".

Current resignation of Armen Sargsyan has not internal but external reasons. It is also yet another proof of the complex and tense geopolitical situation in the world and the high likelihood of a military conflict, which may involve the countries of the South Caucasus.

Kavkazplus