Events around Kazakhstan are developing so rapidly that people have not yet understood what is actually happening. Is it another Maidan and "colored revolution", or "redistribution" of geopolitical spheres of influence (some speak of Russian expansion under the guise of sending "peacekeepers")? Or are the events much more significant and "momentous" for humanity?
First of all, background. The last two months of 2021 in the international media Kazakhstan was as if "blindly ignored". Another neighbouring state to Russia was noticed - the Western community was "concerned" about a possible "Russian invasion of Ukraine", the US demanded that Russia immediately "withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian borders" and threatened with new sanctions in case of aggression.
In the end, Russian troops did cross the border. But not the Russian-Ukrainian, but the Russian-Kazakh border. Logically there should be an "angry" reaction of the same US and its allies? And so far there has been virtually none.
Moreover, the head of the British Foreign Office, Liz Truss, commenting on the participation of the CSTO forces, said on January 6, 2022, "We must respect the fact that Kazakhstan has a sovereign choice to choose its allies. She, however, stressed that the external forces (i.e. the Russian army) "called upon" by Kazakhstan "must have a clear mission and act in proportion".
This is utterly at odds with the fact that almost simultaneously the UK Chief of Defence Staff, Tony Radakin, told in his first interview in office that he would consider options for "military action" in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
In other words, the West is still concerned about Russia's "aggression against Ukraine" and pays little or no attention to the fact that Russian troops have entered a much larger country than Ukraine, and in a key Eurasian region.
It looks strange, to say the least. As does how hastily and hastily the decision to introduce Russian troops was taken. Not even the minimum "procedures" for a legal "cover-up" were implemented. We recall that in 2014, after the start of the events in Donbas, the Russian State Duma adopted a special decision on the possibility of using Russian troops outside of Russia.
Eventually, under pressure from the West, this decision was reversed. But the US and the EU were very concerned that Russia should not encroach on the territory and internal affairs of another state. And the Russian Federation then had a request for help from the albeit ousted but legitimate President Viktor Yanukovych.
Now, "within the framework of the CSTO," Russian troops came to the aid of the Kazakh authorities instantly, after a corresponding request for assistance from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. And Tokayev announced that he would not negotiate with the protesters, who he called "terrorists", and gave the order to "shoot to kill". But it is as if the US did not even mind that it immediately deployed troops into Kazakhstan to suppress the protests. By comparison, in Ukraine during the Maidan, the West did not allow anything like this to happen to Yanukovich, demanding "negotiations".
As for the Russian military intervention in Ukraine after the Maidan victory, we recall that even in Crimea, Russian troops first entered "unofficially" as obscure "green men" or "polite people". And now Pashinyan, who came to power with the help of the Maidan, has joyfully announced the deployment of Russian troops to suppress the Maidan.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin propaganda, headed by the representatives of "the most ancient and long-suffering people" has raised a wave of Russian "hurrah-patotism", clearly humiliating the Kazakhs at that. Margarita Simonyan published an immediate post on Twitter regarding Tokayev's request to bring in CSTO troops:
"Of course you have to help. Definitely you have to help.But some conditions have to be imposed as well.
1. Crimea must be recognized.
2. The Cyrillic alphabet should be returned.
3. The Russian language should be a second state language, as in Kyrgyzstan.
4. to leave Russian schools alone and not to lie to the Head that this is the way it is.
5. Kick out anti-Russian NCOs.
6. A clear-cut, fraternal domestic policy that precludes playing games with the Nazis.
For there is no reason to."
The head of "Rossotrudnichestvo" (working under Margarita Simonyan's compatriot Sergey Lavrov-Kalantarov) Yevgeny Primakov Jr. immediately shared this post by Margarita Simonyan.
Such posts, as well as apparent publications in the Russian media (especially pro-Armenian) that Kazakhstan is "artificial entity" and that its northern territory is "native Russian" only serve to foment enmity between the Kazakhs and the Russians. And it is aggravated by the fact that Kazakhs understand that Tokayev's regime is maintained "on Russian bayonets" and that Russians are helping to massacre the discontented under the pretext of "fight with terrorists".
Events are unfolding rapidly, especially if one recalls and compares them to the Maidan in Kiev in 2014. Events there took months to unfold, with almost 3 months from the start of the protests to the coup. Then, too, from the events in Crimea, which began immediately after the coup in Kiev, to the start of a full-fledged war in Donbass in another 2-3 months. And most importantly, Russia tried to deny its involvement in the events until the last minute.
Even the annexation of Crimea in the first days was carried out by unmarked Russian troops as some kind of "polite people", and Simferopol airport was seized by a group of Armenian fighters under the command of Arman Martoyan, nicknamed "Samvel", who had no formal relation to the Russian armed forces. But here the airport of Almaty was really taken under control by loyal to Tokayev Kazakh security forces, but the whole world was informed that it was done by "peacekeepers of CSTO" i.e. the Russian army, by the way, the loudest shouting about it was pro-Armenian mass-media.
One way or another, the representatives of the "most ancient people" took part in pitting Russians against Ukrainians. And now they are setting Russians and Kazakhs against each other. Is it an accident or a regularity?
Russian mass-media are outright silent that among reasons of current protests are not economics and corruption of Kazakhstani ruling elite, but new lockdown with "coronavirus" restrictions, which are introduced there since January 5, 2022. Formally "because of the rapid spread of the omicron strain.
Unvaccinated citizens have been decided by the government not to be allowed into banks, post offices (i.e. just getting money or money orders will be problematic for a person), bath houses, public service centres, not to mention shopping and entertainment centres, etc.
And all this after lockdowns "in the European and Australian traditions", as Kazakhstan was the toughest country on vaccination and covid restrictions in the post-Soviet space. And recently Aizhan Yesmagambetova, chairman of the Ministry of Health's Sanitary and Epidemiological Control Committee, said that starting in 2022, fines will be imposed on workers who refuse mandatory vaccination against COVID-19.
The news of the mandatory vaccination and the new lockdown was one of the catalysts for the protests. The gas price hike was only the second most important cause. And the government, having allegedly "made concessions" to the protesters and returned gas prices to their previous level (as reported by all the world media), did not even think of lifting the lockdown and restrictions on the unvaccinated.
Now, it is clear, when whole cities are plunged into chaos few in Kazakhstan are thinking about COVID-19. But for some reason neither Russian nor foreign mass-media speak about this as a reason of the protests now. But looting, pogroms in shops, and especially supposedly "cut off heads of law-enforcers" (and if they are, who cut them off - probably, their own provocateurs) are being widely discussed. And again, the so-called "mambets" are blamed for the riots, as the city snobs arrogantly call the allegedly "uncultured" natives of Kazakh villages.
It is interesting that this theme of supposedly "uncultured" villagers is being raised by liberals all over the world. Thus, for example, on January 3, 2020, when very few people were aware of the events in Kazakhstan, the well-known liberal blogger Tengiz Ablotia wrote: "...There will be no normal life in Georgia as long as the village, almost 30-40% of the population, is a toxic zone, which infects the rest of the country with wildness, culturelessness and idleness ..." and "The Georgian village, living by the standards of the XVII century, is not capable, it must be left to its fate: if it will come out - good, if not - good riddance to bad rubbish. Replace words "Georgia" with "Kazakhstan" and "Georgian village" with "Kazakh" and we'll see the same accusations against significant part of the Kazakh people, which are especially spread in the controlled media by representatives of "ancient cultural people".
If to compare real reasons of protests in Kazakhstan and following events, the picture is not rosy not only for Kazakhs, but also for the whole mankind.
In reality, yes, Kazakhstan revolted (and peacefully) against humiliation of human dignity under the pretext of "fighting the pandemic". The more so, that the government was not loved there already. At that, by all indications the "Maidan" structures were involved as if "to help the protests", which inflamed the outrage. But not at all to "win the Maidan". Above all, those who quickly led the protests into a phase of pogroms and looting were also involved. But this was not done in order to seize power, but for something else entirely. So that there would be a "reason for suppression" from "outside" as well.
A precedent has been set. From now on, any country which is outraged by restrictions on people's rights can be severely "punished from the outside" and the international community will say nothing against it.
At the same time there was a 'rotation' of power at the top in Kazakhstan. All supporters of the former President Nursultan Nazarbayev were "cleaned out".
But it does not mean that the real power is going to Tokayev and he became kind of "almighty dictator". Moreover, in his TV-shows Tokayev obviously looked frightened and least of all like a "crafty conspirator". To all appearances he, though not a random, but nevertheless, a "technical figure", who is to provide a dismantling of Kazakhstani statehood and passing of the power to other structures, more connected with globalists.
Separately, we must touch upon the geopolitical trap, in which Russia was "dragged", clearly preparing it for war on two fronts in the case of "disobedience". As we have seen, no one in the West even thinks of removing the "Ukrainian issue" from the agenda. But unlike the past wars in which Russia has participated and is participating (in Syria), with the introduction of troops into Kazakhstan the decisions were taken quickly and spontaneously under the influence of pro-nationalists or external forces. It seems that in such a serious matter nothing has been thoroughly thought over (unless, of course, a provocation was prepared several months in advance). In any case, whether it is a spontaneous decision or a scenario planned by external forces, it is already half of a disaster that will affect not only Russia and Kazakhstan, but could be a prologue to a new world "war redistribution".
Still in the morning of the 2d of January, 2022 peaceful and quiet Almaty was having a rest after meeting New Year, people were quietly going to visit each other and shopping centres, which were opening (the more so, by the 5th of January many of them were promised to close the entrance to these centres). Less than a week has passed, and everything has changed radically.
On the 7th of January in Almaty the roads in the centre are closed, the shooting is constantly going on, it is simply dangerous to go out in the street. Most shops are closed, there is nowhere to buy food. And there is nothing to buy with. The disruption of the Internet and communications systems has suddenly turned bank cards into mere plastic wrappers, and even the few shops that are open have stopped accepting them. That is, people were left without their own money at a critical moment. Communication was cut off and people simply could not find out what was happening in the neighbouring neighbourhood. It was almost impossible to get out of the city as there was no public transport.
It seems as if someone is conducting a monstrous experiment on the city of nearly 2 million people. The city has been turned into a trap (even though it is blamed on "illiterate" people from the villages and it seems that the villages will be declared "war" on a global scale). It is not hard to predict that sooner or later the hungry, suffering and frightened people will accept any punishers and interventionists who will "liberate" them from the chaos. Even if they bring much harsher "concentration camp" norms than the former lockdowns. And they will forgive the new power any outrage, in comparison with which abuses of former clans seem to be "child's pranks".
Whether a peculiar "new tool" of reformatting the whole cities and countries through chaos will be realized in Kazakhstan, or "it all happened so spontaneously" - is not clear yet. But the fact that after events of the beginning of 2022 in global scale will start tremendous shifts - it is already obvious.