ANALYTICS
28.11.21 21:45
It is very symbolic that a year or so after the 44-day war that ended Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani Karabakh, the place where the Armenian nationalist "Artsakh" project collapsed was in fact the "Armenian capital of Russia" - Sochi. Historically, by the way, it is a Georgian city ('Sochi' in Georgian means 'fir'). However, today, the population of Greater Sochi, especially in its areas bordering occupied Georgian Abkhazia, is dominated by Armenians, and their dominance in the economy and business of this main resort city of Russia is absolute.
It was precisely in this city that the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and the Armenian Prime Minister met on 26 November 2021 to sign a final declaration:
The most important thing in the declaration is the establishment of a bilateral commission to delimit the state border "between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with consultative assistance from the Russian Federation at the request of the parties". This means that Armenia has agreed to return to its internationally recognized borders without any "Artsakh".
In Sochi, in essence, the "status of Karabakh", the OSCE Minsk Group, the "conflict" - i.e. all those issues that Armenian nationalists would like to talk about - were completely neutralized. There is also no mention of Armenian "prisoners of war" and so on; there is a general formulation of "humanitarian issues", of which there are many, including, for example, the problem of maps of minefields. Nikol Pashinyan's complaints about the alleged "occupation of Armenia's sovereign territory" by Azerbaijan in Sochi were neither heard nor recorded. It was made clear to Nikol Pashinyan that last year's agreements needed to be implemented, including in terms of corridors.
Russian President Vladimir Putin applied the phrase "transport corridors" in Sochi for a reason. In the statement he spoke about the need to launch "concrete projects" as soon as possible for the economic potential of the region - and it is the Zangezur corridor that is in question here. Agreements were reached on the opening of road and rail connections, and their implementation seems to be a matter of the very near future.
If we look at the results of the meeting in Sochi in terms of "big geopolitics", it is a brilliant victory of Azerbaijan "on the diplomatic field", and not less important than the military victory of last year. It is no secret that the Armenian nationalists initially hoped to use Russia, which was largely controlled by their lobby, as a "fighting fist" in their own interests. And after Sochi it became clear that Russia, however much the Armenian lobby in Moscow and Sochi might wish, would act in the interests of peace and the re-establishment of normal relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan within internationally acknowledged borders.
It was the Armenian nationalists who "dragged" Russia into this situation.
There is a good Russian proverb: "You can't catch two birds with one stone".
Exorbitant appetite of Armenian nationalists led to the fact that they launched two "projects" at once: the occupation of Azerbaijani territories of Karabakh and the separatist dismemberment of Georgia with a view to "Armenian Abkhazia. As a result, the "military road" through Georgia for Armenia and Russia has been closed and all military adventures involving the use of Russian military force in Armenian interests are fundamentally unrealizable.
In addition, the Armenian lobby managed to drag Russia into an adventure with Ukraine and the redrawing of its territory, creating not only "another front" for Russia in Donbass, but also making the West very wary of any Russian military activity in the South Caucasus.
As a result, Russia is in a "corridor of opportunity" to maintain its influence, in which it can only help to unblock communications and establish peace for its own, including economic, interests. After all, Turkey is one of Russia's main economic partners and "overland access" to this country through the South Caucasus (the same Zangezur corridor) is necessary for Russia. The Armenian lobby, with its nationalist projects concerning "Artsakh", is "out of luck" and the meeting in Sochi was the most eloquent demonstration of this.
The Armenian "Abkhaz project" is also on the verge of collapse, although of course it was not discussed at Sochi. The fact is that for the first time in the South Caucasus, Russia has "signed up" to promoting the establishment of internationally acknowledged borders. However, the main unresolved issue in this area is the border between Russia and Georgia, including its Abkhazian and Ossetian sections. And once Armenia and Azerbaijan resolve the border issues and unblock communications, it will inevitably need to be resolved.
Therefore, the issue of the de-occupation of Abkhazia and the restoration of Georgian jurisdiction here will inevitably be raised.
Kavkazplus
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