ANALYTICS

Armenia can no longer "turn away" from the peace and corridors

25.11.21 15:30


The Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders are scheduled to meet and negotiate first in Sochi (Russia) on 26 November 2021 and then in Brussels (EU) at the Eastern Partnership summit on 15 December 2021. In order to predict where these negotiations will lead to, let's recall a brief background.

 

After the 44 day war and the agreement of 9 November 2020, Armenia was given about a year to settle key issues.  Armenia had to unblock communications during that time, firstly through Zangezur, and secondly to conclude a peace agreement with Azerbaijan on the basis of recognition of each other's territorial integrity and to start delimitation and demarcation of the border.

 

The Armenian side essentially frustrated all deadlines. And if Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had an "excuse" for the need to go through parliamentary elections, then after he strengthened his position in the summer of 2021, such "excuses" are no longer valid.

 

It is clear that in Armenia the positions of revanchists are still strong, especially among the military, for whom Pashinian and his government are 'outsiders' and traitors. However, the defeat in Karabakh has undermined the credibility of these revanchists. The ballot box was not voted for by the voters.

 

The recent clashes on the border have also once again exposed the mediocrity of the Armenian military. So in response to their theses about 'betrayal' and 'surrender of national interests', Pashinian and his team can always find a counter-argument 'what can we do if you cannot fight? The replacement of General Arshak Karapetian, a member of Armenia's former military and political elite, by "civilian co-recipient" Suren Papikyan is also a very eloquent gesture by the Yerevan government.

 

Nevertheless, for the time being, both the revanchists and, apparently, many forces in the ruling team in Yerevan are slowing down the signing of the peace agreement and the implementation of the agreements on Zangezur corridor as much as they can. Hopefully, the geopolitical situation will change and Armenia will once again have a chance not only to slow down the implementation of the agreements on transport corridors, but also to reassert its claims to foreign territories with the help of powerful external forces.

 

The Armenian authorities have recently been trying their best to drag out the negotiation processes and to create the illusion of progress" and "peacefulness" in their neighbours, first and foremost Azerbaijan, without actually doing anything. The calculation is simple: if they have managed to "fool around" with the unblocking of communications for a year, they can try to continue in the same vein.

 

To do so, Armenia has even engaged Georgia in its games. Two months ago, Armenian premier Nikol Pashinyan tried to pass on a request for a meeting with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan through Georgian premier Irakli Garibashvili. In Yerevan, they obviously hoped that against the backdrop of commencing supposedly "normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey," Azerbaijan will not be so eager to demand the opening of Zangezur corridor.

Ankara, however, made it clear that it would agree to a meeting only after Armenia had fulfilled at least the minimum of its obligations, first of all by unblocking the communication between Baku and Nakhichevan.

 

Sooner or later this dual game by Yerevan had to come to an end. Having repelled Armenian armed provocations on the border, Azerbaijani troops made that clear. And since the border is not defined and where Azerbaijani territory ends is not fixed, Azerbaijan only willingly stopped the advance of its troops, waiting for the Armenian side's prudence. And most importantly, both Moscow and Brussels called on the Armenian side to be reasonable.

 

Russia perfectly understands what colossal benefits it will gain by having direct land access to Turkey through Zangezur. For those in Moscow who think in categories of economic cooperation and development of Eurasian communications war is unnecessary. It is not incidental that Yerevan's cries of "military aid" were answered with the clear message that CSTO will not engage in war only because Yerevan does not want to comply with agreements reached and hopes to occupy foreign territories. The CSTO also did not give in to Yerevan's blackmail to "bring in other international partners", knowing full well that even the French will not fight for Armenia, let alone the other Western powers.

 

As for the EU, it too does not wish to see the Eastern Partnership become an unstable zone in the eyes of Yerevan politicians. The EU has an interest in stability in the South Caucasus region, a key region in terms of diversifying energy supplies to Europe and ensuring its energy security. Therefore, there is no doubt that in Sochi on November 26 and in Brussels on December 15 Yerevan will be persuaded to unblock the Zangezur corridor and make peace with Azerbaijan.

 

In order to continue its destructive activities, Armenia needs to enlist the support of other forces comparable in influence and power to the Kremlin and the EU authorities? Does Yerevan have such opposition? It is unlikely....

 

Let us start with Iran. Iran certainly does not want to lose its former leverage in the South Caucasus, which it had when it essentially supported Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani Karabakh. But the fact is that today Iran is a geopolitical pariah. The U.S., whose protégé is Pashinyan, is a clear enemy of Iran. Moreover, it is not popular in Europe to speak about "Iran`s interests"; even France, which tacitly supports Tehran, formally distances itself from it.

 

As for the plots that "the street will sweep Pashinyan away" if he opens Zangezur corridor, they are simply not serious. The nationalist "street" in Yerevan, along with the revanchists and terrorists, could do nothing to Pashinyan after his disastrous defeat in the 44 day war, when only the laziest of men accused him of "betrayal". In the elections, despite the frantic propaganda of the same "betrayal by Pashinyan", he won confidently.

Pashinyan has all the Armenian intelligence services in his hands, and now he has the Armenian defence ministry on his side. So it will no longer be possible for Pashinyan to delay a decision to unblock communications under the pretext of 'street anger' in front of his negotiating partners.

 

It is also very symbolic that the negotiations will be held in two stages. First, the issue of the Zangezur corridor will inevitably be raised in Sochi. "It is planned to review the implementation of the agreements of the leaders of the three countries of November 9, 2020 and January 11, 2021, and to outline further steps to strengthen stability and establish a peaceful life in the region.

Particular attention will be paid to the restoration and development of trade, economic and transport links", the Kremlin's press service said of the meeting scheduled between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 26.

 

Sochi meeting or postponement of the corridor issue to Brussels is, first of all, important for Russia. Russia needs to show that it retains leverage in the South Caucasus and that it can pursue a constructive policy there.

 

Issues relating to Yerevan's relations with Armenia's longstanding military and economic partner, Russia, should also be "resolved" in Sochi. Armenia is moving from confrontation to cooperation with its neighbours, Azerbaijan and Turkey, which have intensively developing ties with Russia. And if not in Sochi, then ideally in Brussels should be prepared and signed documents on the recognition of the territorial integrity of Armenia and Azerbaijan by each other within internationally recognized borders.

 

 Such agreements are opposed by the Armenian lobby in Russia, which is not so much worried about "Artsakh" as it "has its eye" on Georgian Abkhazia.

After all, the definition of borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Russia, would mean that the principle of inviolability of borders should be extended to all countries of the Eastern Partnership. Hence, the next point will inevitably be the definition of the border between Russia and Georgia and the beginning of the process of de-occupation of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region.

 

It is obvious that the so-called "experts" among the Armenian nationalists who have settled in Russia, representatives of the "ancient people", are vying with one another to say that Aliyev and Pashinyan will not sign any agreements either in Sochi or in Brussels on the corridors and the border. But they would like it so. There are far more powerful forces interested in peace and stability in the South Caucasus than the Armenian lobby in Russia.

 

 

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