The exacerbation of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border on November 16, 2021 has a very serious geopolitical context. At least because the day before this provocation, which was predicted to cause victims, on November 15, 2021 Armenia urgently changed the Minister of Defense, and Arshak Karapetyan, who had already arranged work with Russia, was replaced by "ultra-western Soros-sucker" Suren Papikyan.

The provocation was played out "like clockwork". Armenian armed formations began "leveling the border", entered Azerbaijani territory and received "retaliation", losing at least 15 people dead, 12 prisoners of war and leaving military equipment and weapons as trophies.

Furthermore, it is not yet clear whose order the Armenian military initially carried out - the current Minister of Defence or the resigned Minister (who was in Moscow on the eve of November 10).

On 16 November 2021 the Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, also made a statement to the effect that Armenia had turned to Russia for help in the conflict with Azerbaijan.

" Since Armenia's sovereign territory has been attacked, we call on Russia to protect Armenia's territorial integrity within the framework of the agreement between Armenia and Russia concluded in 1997," Grigoryan told Public Television of Armenia. He also clarified that it is a verbal appeal, but it will be sent to Moscow in written form as well, and referred to the bilateral treaty of 1997.

In response to a clarifying question whether it was a question of military assistance, Grigoryan answered in the affirmative. If the conflict cannot be solved through negotiations, Yerevan asks Moscow to provide military assistance, he explained.

Armen Grigoryan also noted that if Russia and the CSTO do not help Armenia, Pashinyan's government will be forced to ask for military assistance from other international partners. Meaning of course the US, France and a number of other NATO members (excluding of course Turkey). The Russian media for some reason failed to broadcast this important point, which was stressed by the secretary of the Armenian Security Council.

The Armenian authorities are directly presenting Russia with an ultimatum: "Either you fight for us, or we are no longer your ally". Thus, they are leading Russia to make radical and painful decisions.

For Russia, the matter is turning out to be more than serious. Pashinyan, fulfilling the assignment of his Western "masters", clearly wants to hurry to oust Russia from the region of the South Caucasus, not stopping at provocations. But the revanchists, counting on "Russian bayonets", are also ready to seize the moment.

It is obvious that right-thinking politicians do not want to go to war for the actual enemies and proxies of the West in Russia. However, there is a big "but". The Armenian lobby is in power in Russia itself today. President Putin has been "barely visible" of late and all issues in the country appear to be decided by two Armenians: Prime Minister Mishustin and Foreign Minister Lavrov-Kalantarov.

The pro-Russian Armenian lobby can put the issue before Yerevan in a nutshell - Russia will fight for Armenia, but not with Pashinyan in charge. By doing so, Mishustin and Kalantarov hope to solve two problems with a single blow - to bring revanchists led by Kocharian back to power in Armenia and to resume Armenian expansion into foreign territories. Using Russian weapons, of course.

It is no coincidence, therefore, that the opposition Armenia bloc led by Robert Kocharian issued a statement on the situation in Armenia in the evening of November 16, accusing the government of Nikol Pashinyan of military losses and inability to confront Azerbaijan and demanding his resignation. According to the revanchists, the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan "must be followed by the unification of all capable forces, formation of a new government and ensuring a policy to solve Armenia's foreign and domestic problems".

On the downside, Pashinyan and Papikyan have clearly been preparing for such a "turnaround" and clearly want to finally "change the host and ally" for Armenia. Once again, they agree to a "major war" for the sake of this.

And the most unexpected variants of developments are possible here. And one thing is clear that any option of dragging Russia into the war immediately raises the question of "breaking through a military corridor" through Georgia.

Kavkazplus