ANALYTICS

Abkhazia's new overlords and the 'revolution' of veteran separatists

08.11.21 14:40


Separatist Abkhazia is actually a unique pseudo-"state" entity, unparalleled in the world. All recent history here is focused on the separatist war of 1992-1993. It is as if there were no other events neither before 1992-1993 nor after it. Also Sukhumi regime all these years was engaged in glorification of the separatist fighters. Including murderers and looters who have shown their complete inability to be productive and live normal lives in peacetime.

 

And although all the separatist fighters were named "heroes", there was a breakdown among them. Some of the marauders are well entrenched in the separatist government and are currently plundering financial aid sent from Russia, and looting what can be looted in poverty-stricken Abkhazia. Most of the former separatist fighters and looters have been removed from power and are languishing in poverty.  What they "looted" immediately after the war, in addition to "trophy" houses, have long rotted, broken down, spent and the like.

 

Thus, there is a visible conflict between the successful marauding separatists and those who have been ousted from power. The latter are in the majority and are united in all kinds of "veteran" organisations.

 

In principle, the Abkhazian separatist pseudo-"state" is already "condemned to elimination".  It is no longer hidden that its ultimate goal is annexation of the Russian Federation. For this purpose, "harmonization" of the separatist legislation with the Russian one is underway.  And here we need to do something with the separatist veterans. All the more that they have the "masses of the people" on their hands and have brought up their children mainly in a criminal spirit and have not been taught to work. They are united in clans that are unhappy to be removed from power, other more fortunate looters with their own clans.

 

In reality, the separatist Abkhazia is gradually passing into the hands of Armenian resettlers who cannot wait for so-called harmonization of the separatist Abkhazian legislation with the Russian legislation that occupies the territory. The issue of "neutralization" of former separatist fighters is also acute. Armenian nationalists would very much like to "get their hands dirty" with angry and discontented from the government marauders and it is preferable for them to have the separatist authorities to deal with this troublesome crowd, if necessary with involvement of Russian occupation troops and security services. Therefore, the conflict between the separatist authorities and the so-called veterans was inevitable.

 

All that was needed was an excuse to exacerbate the conflict. And this seems to have happened after the conflict with shooting and showdown of relations during the celebration on September 30th of another anniversary of the separatists' victory and taking control of most of the territory of Abkhazia. The shooting in Sukhumi involved separatist MP Garry Kokaya, members of the separatist police and a group of veteran separatists.

 

The veterans immediately called for the dismissal of the head of the separatist Interior Ministry, Dmitri Dbar, and he was suspended, but then the separatist "president" Aslan Bzhania reinstated him. In response, the so-called "Council of Veterans" of the separatists announced a protest on November 4 demanding the resignation of Dmitri Dbar.

 

The ruling elite are well aware that concessions to veteran separatists that already have a "taste for bringing Maidans", who in fact have already overthrown the separatist presidents twice, will only whet their appetite. So for the time being Aslan Bzhania decided, firstly, not to submit to ultimatums of the veterans and leave Dbar in his post of the separatist interior minister and, secondly, not to stop the dialogue with the protesters.

 

And on the evening of November 4th, 2021 when a rally of veteran separatists was held in Sukhumi not only demanding resignation of the Interior Ministry, but also of Bzhania himself. The separatist "president" came out to the protesters "with an exhortation".

 

However, it is doubtful that former separatist fighters will be able to keep former separatist fighters in a "peaceful framework" for long.  The protesters do not yet have any "ready-made contenders" for separatist leadership and this is, at first glance, somewhat strange.

 

During the first Abkhazian-separatist "Maidan" in 2014 against the "president" Alexander Aqvamb that the same veterans had organised they had a ready candidate for the separatist "president" - a long-time Kremlin puppet Raul Khajimba. When Khajimba himself was overthrown by the next "veteran Maidan" in 2019, Bzhania was a kind of "symbol of hope". Now the "veterans" are disappointed in him too.

 

However, for a separatist Maidan to win, the veterans and their sentiments alone are not enough. We need a "guiding force", which during the two previous Sukhum "Maidans" was the Armenian lobby.

 

During the 2014 Sukhumi Maidan, Armenian nationalists were displeased that Alexander Aqvamb handed out separatist passports to Georgians in the Gali district. The main goal of the Armenian puppeteers at the time was complete disenfranchisement of "Georgian brothers" in Abkhazia and Khajimba ensured this by revoking the separatist passports of people on ethnic grounds, just because they were Georgians. But he was in no hurry to organise the distribution of land and real estate to Armenian settlers. This is why the next "Maidan" was organised and this time Aslan Bzhania was pushed into the chair of the separatist "president" by Ruben Tatulyan, a criminal authority from among Sochi Armenians.

 

There are no signs yet that the Armenian lobby is disillusioned with Bzhania. Armenians from Armenia and "Artsakh" are arriving en masse in Abkhazia and settling in here without too much fuss, awaiting for "harmonisation" of legislation destroying the separatist pseudo-"statehood" and everything is going according to plan. Moreover, so far the separatist opposition has no alternative figure around which to unite.

 

Therefore, the chances of the current Sukhumi "Maidan" succeeding are not yet visible. It is more likely that an artificial stirring up of turmoil is taking place. And these disturbances will be used by the separatist authorities and their Kremlin handlers to finally resolve the issue of "separatist heroes".

 

It should be noted that the strength, health and fighting spirit of the separatist veterans is no longer the same. There are more and more contradictions between them and fewer financial opportunities. Most importantly, there are "no sponsors in sight". Therefore, the probability of a successful "revolution" today is lower than in 2014 or 2019.

 

We should also not forget that the separatist "revolutionaries" can be provoked into unrest by those who want to finish them off with the hands of the separatist authorities and the occupants. And this is, above all, a "third force" which has already become the first in terms of numbers in the separatist Abkhazia - Armenian nationalists.

 

They will soon need elimination of even formal authority of the separatist puppets, as well as complete destruction of all privileges of both veterans and the titular Abkhazian nationality on the separatist territory. And there is no better scenario for this than provoking internal turmoil among the various factions of the separatists.

 

So we are likely to see the "final chord" of existence of the Abkhazian separatist "statehood". After the occupant Russian security services pacify the unrest in the separatist Abkhazia (and the fact that this will happen sooner or later there is no doubt, since the forces of the separatists and occupants are not equal) the Abkhazians will not care about "revolutions" anymore. Those who have already come into the economy of the separatist territory and became a majority there will get real power in "little coastal Armenia" from the hands of the Kremlin's Armenian-dependent lobby. There is only one alternative to this: reconciliation of Abkhazians and Georgians and restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia - and only this will ensure the preservation of the Abkhazian ethnos.

 

 

Kavkazplus

Read: 415


Write comment

Warning!
(In their comments, readers should avoid expressing religious, racial and national discrimination, not use offensive and derogatory expressions, as well as appeals that are contrary to the law)

Send
You can enter 512 characters

News feed