The Armenian elite as a whole is not stupid and calculating people (their moral qualities are a separate issue), moreover, they are “economically savvy”. But any person with an economic education will say that the present Republic of Armenia, even together with the occupied Azerbaijani territories of Karabakh, is doomed to be economically self-sufficient. Even if a miracle happens and the blockade is lifted.
The reason is simple, the current territory of Armenia is poor in resources. It has no access to the sea, a significant part of it is located on the unsuitable for human life, in the corresponding latitudes of the highlands –2000 meters above sea level and above.
In this state, the only real chance for Armenia to develop is close integration with more economically self-sufficient neighbors. Such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. But this completely excludes any changes to internationally recognized borders. What the Armenian nationalists strongly disagree with. It turns out a "vicious circle."
Armenian nationalists still have the main fix idea - to achieve redrawing the borders and creating a “great Armenia”, with access to the sea. Moreover, on the Black Sea coast, they have already prepared, at the expense of Georgia, an “enclave” - separatist Abkhazia, where the majority of Armenians are already in their hands and the economy is in their hands. Now you need to "break through the corridor to it."
By the way, the seizure of Abkhazia’s Armenian lobby took place very cunningly - with the wrong hands and so that even the Georgians themselves until the last moment did not know in whose interests this war was unleashed.
The Georgians were sure that the main goal of the Armenian nationalists was Karabakh, and Abkhazia was “not interested” in them. And when the Armenian militants "cleared" the Georgians of Sukhumi and other cities, killing thousands of peaceful Georgians and expelling hundreds of thousands, it was too late.
Yerevan’s “anti-Turkish intrigue” should alert Georgia. Armenian nationalists shout about the so-called "Genocide" and the so-called “Western Armenia” (present-day East Turkey), and in the “mind” we mean the Georgian Samtskhe-Javakheti and Adjara.
In order to initiate a redrawing of borders, the Armenian lobby seeks to destabilize a stop in the region by any means with the inclusion of leading geopolitical players in the struggle and clashes. Therefore, the Armenian media, including those close to Nikol Pashin, again and again, raise the issue of intensifying "work with Turkey." Moreover, the methods of "Armenian carrot and stick".
On the one hand, in Yerevan, try to restore economic relations with Turkey and "lift the blockade" from the Turkish side without de-occupation of Karabakh, and on the other, through the US and Russia, using their contradictions in the region, cast doubt on existing international treaties and recognized in accordance with the borders.
For example, the material under the eloquent headline “Can Yerevan hook on Ankara?” (https://www.lragir.am/ru/2020/02/05/165920/?fbclid=IwAR1HmZaqfhxD4ACzeMG9ALNTWTC6-CZj4gM0jqr3hCGshF11mElK7S2_5RM ) which directly speaks of flirting the current regime in Yerevan with Turkey:
“A couple of weeks ago in Ankara, under the chairmanship of Erdogan, a meeting of the Turkish High Advisory Council took place, at which the challenges related to the Armenian issue were discussed. This indicates the importance of this issue for Ankara, which is looking for its place in the architecture of the new world order. Moreover, the role of the Armenian issue in the new world order is becoming more and more distinct. Evidence of this is the adoption by both houses of the US Congress of resolutions recognizing the "Armenian genocide."
The velvet revolution in Armenia has given a new impetus to the Armenian factor and Armenian statehood, which is the carrier of responsibility for this factor. And although the Armenian agenda is under heavy fire from various sides, this cannot affect its prospects.
Despite the fact that for many years Ankara pursued a policy that did not “notice” Armenia, and viewed Russia as the de facto side of football diplomacy, the current transformations in the world can make Ankara turn its eyes to Yerevan. Does Armenia have ideas with which it can hook Ankara, replacing fears with purposeful work?”
But those who think that trying to establish relations with Turkey and “hook” Ankara with Yerevan intends to abandon their territorial claims are deeply mistaken. For example, a material published on the arminfo website: “Turkologist: It is possible that in the near future the Armenian issue may again be on the agenda” (https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=49162). Where it is frankly talking about the real goals of Armenia. Among them - a revision of the current borders and "reanimation" of the canceled Sevres Treaty:
“Of course, the adoption by the House of Representatives and the US Congress of a resolution recognizing the“ Armenian Genocide ”played a significant role in this process. The director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan stated this at a press conference on February 7.
He emphasized that closer to April 24, we will finally see the work of the Armenian lobby on the issue of recognition of the Armenian Genocide. "Our specialists should prepare, as the events taking place in the Middle East are similar to the events that took place in the early 20th century, when the Treaty of Sevres was signed, aimed at creating a Christian state in northern Turkey," the expert emphasized.
Safrastyan noted that it is possible that we are on the verge of big changes. In his opinion, the Armenian issue may again be on the agenda, but it will have a slightly different character since today there is already an Armenian state in the world. “I think that Armenia, using“ soft power ”, can push its agenda in public and political circles of many countries of the world,” the expert said.
He also noted that the United States began to reckon with Russia's position on strategic issues. "The developments in the Middle East are clearly signaling that we should prepare for any, even very unexpected scenarios," Safrastyan emphasized.
It should be noted that according to the Treaty of Sevres, Turkey was supposed to transfer to Armenia a territory of 103,599 square meters. km: two-thirds of the Van and Bitlis vilayets, almost the entire Erzurum vilayet, most of the Trebizond vilayet, including the port. By uniting with the Republic of Armenia that existed in the Transcaucasus, an independent, united Armenian state would have a territory with a total area of over 150 thousand square meters. km, with access to the Black Sea. ”
Yerevan seek to start the process of redrawing the borders in the region with every possibility. And this is a tremendous danger to Georgia.
It is obvious that grabbing a significant part of Eastern Turkey with access to the sea is the so-called “hypothetical” wishes of the Armenian nationalists. But the main thing for them is to ensure that the borders are put “in question”.
And then it will be possible to resolve the issue of a “breakthrough to the sea” due to a weaker country than Turkey. In this case, Georgia. And at the same time achieve flirting with Turkey by the neutrality of this country in case of aggression of Armenia against neighbors.