The threat of war on the anniversary of a mythical "genocide"

01.04.24 19:55

The situation around the Republic of Armenia and this state is beginning to escalate rapidly as the country moves very quickly from one geopolitical camp to another. And this is accompanied by geopolitical overheating. Armenia's alliance with Russia remains on paper, and the withdrawal of the Russian military base and border guards is already inevitable. Armenia is inviting its new allies and "patrons" - the United States and France - into the region. At the same time, it does not refrain from military revenge and a new attempt to seize other people's territories, but with the help of new allies.


In principle, the Armenian nationalists change allies precisely to seize territory and build their "Great Armenia", since the security of the Armenian state within internationally recognised borders, the alliance with Russia and membership of the CSTO were already perfectly guaranteed. But the Russian Federation and the CSTO countries refused to fight for Armenian interests in order to give them foreign lands, and this caused a wave of Russophobia in the Republic of Armenia.


On the other hand, Yerevan seems to understand that a military adventure "with a change of allies" could lead not to the desired "territorial gains" but to disaster. This is why Yerevan is currently thinking of having a "double safety net", both from "old" (Russia) and "new" (USA and France) allies. And even better, a "triple safety net", including Iran, so that "all Armenian allies" would come to Armenia's aid in the event of the collapse of its military adventure.


The Armenian military appears to be relying on this, prompting a significant mobilisation near the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, to which the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry was compelled to respond.


The Republic of Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defence released: Recently, there has been an observed concentration of manpower, armoured vehicles, artillery units, and other heavy firepower, as well as intensive movement of troops from the Armenian armed forces in various directions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In recent days, Armenia has seen the activation of revanchist forces that threaten Azerbaijan with war. Aggressive rhetoric against our country has reached a high level, and the number of inflammatory statements has increased. This aggravates the situation in the information space and prepares for provocation attempts.  The Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan has warned that the Azerbaijani army will resolutely stop any military provocation by the Armenian armed forces against Azerbaijan. It reiterates that Armenia and its patrons will bear full responsibility for any aggravation of the situation or possible provocation..


Armenia's Ambassador to the EU, Tigran Balayan, responded to the statement by claiming that Azerbaijan and its allies plan to attack Armenia after Armenian Easter (which falls on 31 March this year). The alleged motive is to disrupt the planned meeting between Nikol Pashinyan, Secretary of State Blinken, and Ursula von der Leyen on 5 April, which aims to discuss Armenia's development and sustainability.


While preparing for the Brussels meeting on 5 April 2024, where Armenians will sign an agreement on a "security umbrella" with the US and the EU, Armenia itself is doing everything to put security in the region under question and unleash war. And this is not accidental at all.


Armenian nationalists intend to play the situation in such a way that Russia will be accused by Armenian nationalists that "past and future genocides" are its fault.


Armenia has not yet severed ties with its 'old' allies, but it has also formed relationships with 'new' allies. There is a possibility that both sets of allies may come to Armenia's aid to prevent another 'genocide'.


However, there is a realistic possibility that both new and old allies may leave Armenia to deal with its neighbours alone. Armenian nationalists are confident in their exceptional importance due to their culture and antiquity for mankind, as well as for new and old allies. However, it is important to avoid being cynically used and abandoned, as has happened many times in history.


 On one hand, time is running out for the pro-Western Armenian revanchists.  The US presidential elections are in November, which means that by the end of summer or beginning of autumn, the main superpower will no longer have a direct influence on Armenia. Currently, Democratic President Joseph Biden is in the White House, and as we know, the Democratic Party is more inclined to listen to the Armenian lobby than the Republicans. However, there is no certainty regarding his re-election. Additionally, Armenians have had a strained relationship with the likely next president, Donald Trump, since the 44-day war. During this conflict, the U.S. did not intervene to prevent the defeat of the occupying forces and separatists in Karabakh.


It is worth noting that Donald Trump is more opposed to Iran than Joseph Biden. If Trump were to be re-elected, Iran would not accept the US-Armenia alliance and the possibility of US troops on its northern border. Iran has already expressed its dissatisfaction with these prospects. The scheduled meeting on 5 April 2024 in Brussels between EU, US and Armenian officials, where the US will provide 'security guarantees' to Yerevan, has caused a negative reaction from Tehran. The Armenian authorities are working to mitigate this reaction.


Tehran has warned Yerevan that if Armenia decides to get closer to the US and the EU by signing a military agreement, Iran may prevent the passage of military equipment from India. It was promised that if American bases were established in Armenia, Armenia's access to the Indian Ocean would be closed and the Persian Gulf-Black Sea project would be impossible. Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, will visit Iran before the Brussels meeting on 5 April to maintain this alliance in a critical situation.


In France, the 'Olympics-2024' are scheduled to be held in Paris during the summer. According to the French authorities, the war in the South Caucasus could have a global impact if it starts before or during the Olympics, but not after.


However, this window was not the final or fatal one in the history of Armenian statehood. It will not be possible to return to this window. Unfortunately, the recent fate of the dissolved 'second Armenian state' - the separatist 'Artsakh', which all 'allies' seemed to 'sympathise' with, but no one really helped, appears to have taught politicians in Yerevan nothing. 


George Mazniashvili

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