Is the war going to be "transferred" from Ukraine to Armenia?

28.02.24 17:10

Almost simultaneously, news about the Ukrainian leadership was thrown into the information space.


First of all, there was the information that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, might be on a visit to Armenia on the 4th of March, after which the Ukrainian leader would be on his way to Azerbaijan. This was reported by Radio Azatutyun, the Armenian Radio Liberty, which is known to be the mouthpiece of the US State Department.


Secondly, the same Zelensky's office said that Russia is allegedly preparing a special operation called "Maidan-3,"  the essence of which is to question the legitimacy of President Vladimir Zelensky after May 20, 2024, when his term of office ends. However, according to the law, new presidential elections cannot yet be held because Ukraine is under martial law.


The statement was issued by the Intelligence Committee of the President of Ukraine. According to it, this campaign should culminate in March–May 2024. According to the committee, Moscow is planning to spread panic and despondency among Ukrainians, pick fights with Kyiv and its allies, and disrupt arms supplies and mobilization.


Anyone familiar with Ukraine's current realities understands perfectly well that the Western partners have most likely decided to replace Zelensky as president of Ukraine. There is a successor: the recently retired commander of Ukrainian troops, Valeriy Zaluzhny, whose popularity in society is much higher than Zelensky's. Pro-Western NGOs support this popularity.


Zelensky himself is probably aware that his time at the helm of Ukraine is coming to an end. But as a professional actor, Zelensky has to "play his part.". Moreover, according to the plan of the global directors, the war in Ukraine should be "frozen.". But at the same time, it is possible to ignite it in another part of the world, where Vladimir Zelensky will most probably "pass the baton of war".


The freezing of the war in Ukraine is also necessary to hold elections (and to replace the same Zelensky, whose powers would have expired on May 20, 2024, without the war) with Zaluzhny. This means that, most probably, "in order not to give an excuse for Maidan-3,"  some kind of truce with the Russian Federation will be concluded.


Next, martial law will be lifted in Ukraine and presidential elections will be held. To make the Russian Federation more 'accommodating' and to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macaron announced the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine to help its army.


In particular, the French president spoke of plans to create an alliance of countries to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. According to him, their main task will be to provide Kyiv with the necessary amount of ammunition. He also does not rule out the possibility of sending troops directly to Ukraine.


At the same time, Macron and his government have recently made eloquent gestures of military support for Armenia, which is in the process of breaking its alliance with Russia and becoming "the most friendly country to France". In other words, Yerevan is in a hurry to abandon its old allies, gather new ones led by France, and start a war.


This is why Zelensky's visit to Yerevan is so important. With the "exhaustion" of his legitimacy and popularity, with the blessing of his "friend Macron" (who in words promises to support Ukraine), Vladimir Zelensky will "pass the baton of military support of the Western world" to Armenia, which in the minds of Western society is increasingly exposed as a "victim of aggression", not only by Azerbaijan but also by Russia.


Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already announced freezing Armenia's participation in the CSTO. The question of withdrawing Russian border guards and the Gyumri base from the country is already being raised. There is no doubt that a new wave of anti-Russian actions will begin in Armenia shortly. Everything points to the fact that Armenia will soon be presented in the perception of the world community not as "Russia's ally", which helps it to evade sanctions (as it was until recently), but as "Russia's victim". True, not of Russian aggression, as in Ukraine, but of "Russian perfidy" and "occupation".


And, of course, the Armenian nationalists will try to speed up the process of "military revenge". If, according to their logic, the defeat in the war over Karabakh was Russia's fault, then after an accelerated break with Russia it is high time to start a new war in alliance with the same France, as well as India and Iran.


Georgian political scientist Levan Pirveli, in an interview with Russian journalist Maxim Shevchenko, concluded that Armenia will try to start such a war as soon as possible. He believes that an Armenian-Azerbaijani war is possible. And its initiator will be Armenia, which today receives military aid from France, India, and Iran and hopes for the support of both the West and this new coalition of its new allies - about this from about the 26th minute.

The madness of Armenian nationalists is well known. So if the same France gives the go-ahead, Armenia, despite Azerbaijan's obvious desire for peace, may organize aggression again, hoping for help from new allies. And this aggression could happen very soon all the more so if everything is moving towards the freezing of the war and the ceasefire in Ukraine. Here, Russia can claim the capture of Avdeyevka as a "victory,"  but it has no strength for more, and Ukraine, under the conditions of "dosed" aid from the West and exhaustion of resources, has no chance for a counter-offensive.

As for the potential theatre of military operations in the South Caucasus, it is spring, when the mountains are covered with greenery—a convenient time for sabotage groups to infiltrate across the conventional border. And Armenian formations, the so-called "Yerkrapah Volunteer Union,"  are preparing for this.

But will the "new allies" fight for Armenia? That is the big question. Czechoslovakia in 1938 and Poland in 1939 could tell us how France "helped" the Allies. And wouldn't it happen that the Armenians, relying on the promises of France, would once again lose what they have? Just as they did in 1915.

Alexandre Chkheidze

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