ANALYTICS

Azerbaijan has regained its territory without the support of the EU. Meanwhile, Georgia risks losing its land permanently with the backing of the EU

02.01.24 11:50


Critics of Georgia often suggest that the country should renounce its territories, Abkhazia and Samachablo, if it wants to join the EU and NATO quickly. Unfortunately, recent trends indicate that these critics are gaining influence over Georgia's decisions.

 

It is worth noting that Georgia, along with Moldova and Ukraine, has recently been granted the official status of 'candidate for EU membership'. The announcement brought great joy to the 'pro-European' public and politicians. However, it is worth noting that Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership for 24 years and has not made any progress towards joining since 1999, despite being more economically developed and a member of NATO. It is important to remain objective and consider all relevant factors. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that the UK has already left the EU.

 

After the UK's exit from the EU, Brussels has increased its support for Scottish separatists. The separatists, in turn, promise that Scotland will rejoin the EU if it leaves the UK. Similarly, Catalan separatists, who are tacitly supported in Brussels, plan to remain in the EU in the event of Spain's exit. This means that the EU is not able to solve the issue of separatism, but rather worsens it.

 

Furthermore, EU accession for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia may have negative consequences for their national interests, as they risk losing internationally recognized territories. This suggests that the issue of territorial integrity is a significant concern for Moldova and other countries seeking EU accession. Moldovan President Maia Sandu recently stated in an interview that Moldova will hold a referendum on EU membership without Transnistria, even before the restoration of territorial integrity.

 

In an interview with Veridica, Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that her country aims to join the EU by 2030. She also expressed her belief that holding a referendum in the separatist Transnistria region, which is not under the control of the country's official authorities, would be pointless. Instead, residents of the left bank of the Dniester will be invited to vote on the right bank. However, President Sandu acknowledges that few people are likely to exercise this right.

 

Earlier, Sandu acknowledged that Moldova could potentially join the EU even without the unrecognised Transnistrian 'republic', despite her previous statement that both would join together. However, the EU remains sceptical about this possibility. EU representative Peter Stano has stated that Moldova could enter the association without Transnistria.

 

It is important to note that joining the EU before restoring territorial integrity could result in the country permanently losing its territories. Separatists may argue that they did not vote for the EU and do not wish to be a part of it. European officials appear to offer Moldova a de facto renunciation of Transnistria.

 

Georgia also faces a comparable risk of being offered a referendum on accession to the EU without Abkhazia and Samachablo. The 'pro-European' opposition will undoubtedly demand such a referendum, although this will make it almost impossible to restore the country's territorial integrity.

 

Meanwhile, Georgia provides an example of how to restore territorial integrity without relying on the EU. Azerbaijan has recently regained control of Karabakh and eliminated separatist forces, demonstrating another successful approach.

 

The EU did not contribute to this effort and, in fact, one of its leading countries, France, opposed the de-occupation of Karabakh and supported both Armenia and the separatists in Artsakh.

 

During a conversation with Russian journalist Maxim Shevchenko, Georgian political scientist Levan Perveli stated that Georgia's candidacy for the EU was made possible due to Azerbaijan's leader Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh. This statement can be found at minute 40.

 

According to Levan Pirveli, the EU exerted pressure on the Georgian government to allow French armoured vehicles, known as 'bastion', to pass through its territory for Armenia. If this claim is true, it raises concerns about the EU's commitment to restoring Georgia's territorial integrity. France is supplying arms to Armenia, which may be seen as a violation of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. This move may also be seen as an attempt to revive the 'Artsakh' separatist project and redraw borders in the South Caucasus.

 

It should be noted that Armenia, supported by France and the EU, recognized the 'independence' of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali through the 'Artsakh' separatists, which may be viewed as supporting separatism. At the UN General Assembly, Armenia consistently votes against the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region, while Azerbaijan consistently supports the restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity and helps the country cope with separatism challenges.

 

 

George Kvinitadze

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