On 15 December 2023, the First Public Forum 'Russia-Armenia' was inaugurated at the President Hotel in Moscow. This forum took place during a period of strained Russian-Armenian relations, which could potentially escalate into open hostility.

Notably, Armenian representatives were absent from the last CSTO summit in Minsk, which was seen as a demarche. Despite efforts from both sides to downplay the situation, tensions remain high. The Kremlin expressed regret over the absence of Armenian representatives at the CSTO summit, while Yerevan emphasised that it had no intention of leaving the organisation.

It is clear that Armenian politicians would not have missed a single CSTO event if there was even a slight chance of dragging Russia and the CSTO into a revanchist war. Today, Moscow is not willing to fight for Yerevan's interests based on territorial claims to its neighbours. Instead, as a peacemaker, it offers to take into account the interests of both sides. Therefore, Armenia rejects Russia as a military ally and mediator.

Sarkis Khandanyan, a deputy from the ruling faction of the Armenian parliament, announced that Yerevan intends to reject Russian mediation in negotiations with Azerbaijan. He emphasized that the West facilitated several important rounds of meetings at the level of foreign ministers and leaders, during which they made key decisions. According to the Armenian politician, Moscow was not effective as a mediator in conflict resolution.

Yerevan is displeased with Moscow's active efforts to open the railway component of the Zangezur corridor as part of a peaceful settlement with Azerbaijan. Although the opening of this corridor is crucial for Russia to have direct access to Turkey through Azerbaijan, the Armenian authorities strongly discourage it.

Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that Russia is prepared to continue mediating efforts to restart the railway connection between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The unblocking of communications in the region is being carried out in accordance with agreements signed by the leaders of all three countries. To this end, a working group chaired by the deputy prime ministers of the governments of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia has been established.

The group has been meeting and has prepared documents that are almost ready. Overchuk stated that they are prepared to continue the work on unblocking railway communication.

The Armenian railways are owned by Russian Railways, a Russian company. If Russian Railways agrees to finance and restore the railway through Meghri, it can be done quickly. The management of the Russian transport company has the resources and desire to do so.  Armenia cannot obstruct the opening of the railway through Meghri.

Only a complete breakdown in relations between Armenia and Russia can prevent the opening of the Zangezur corridor, which serves Russian interests. Several pro-Western NGOs based in Yerevan are working towards a rupture, as noted by Pyotr Tolstoy, vice-speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, at the 'Russia-Armenia' forum.

Leo Tolstoy stated at the opening of the first public forum 'Russia-Armenia' that there are 2500 non-governmental organisations under the American embassy, which is the largest US representation on the territory of the former USSR. These organisations provide grants, funding, and indoctrination to Armenian youth and society, suggesting that Armenia can live without Russia.

Tolstoy believes that Armenia's separation from Russia is harmful and advises the authorities in Yerevan to avoid repeating the mistakes of post-Soviet countries. These countries attempted to benefit from both Russia and Europe simultaneously.

 During the last war in Karabakh, Armenian MPs frequently visited Tolstoy's office, requesting him to intervene and stop the war by contacting the Russian president. The deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma emphasised that soldiers are being brought back in coffins from the front, and the deputies are no longer present. The deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma emphasised that soldiers are being brought back in coffins from the front, and the deputies are no longer present. The deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma emphasised that soldiers are being brought back in coffins from the front, and the deputies are no longer present. It is worth noting that Putin stopped the war.

In November 2020, the Russian Federation mediated a three-year period for the Hayes in Karabakh to decide and integrate into Azerbaijan. However, they did not take advantage of this opportunity and continued to pursue separatism. In the end, they withdrew from Karabakh, but the responsibility for the Hayan nationalists still lies with Russia.

Armenia is no longer considered Russia's 'outpost' in the South Caucasus. Instead, it aims to become a strategic partner of France and the United States, which it openly acknowledges.

The authorities in Yerevan recently purchased armoured vehicles and other weapons from France, while ignoring CSTO activities. This has led revanchists to hope for 'Western' military assistance, even those who previously hoped for support from the Kremlin. In the matter of peaceful settlement, Pashinyan's government and his party's deputies suggest that the new Western mediators defend Yerevan's interests better than Moscow.

Yerevan's hope for Western mediation is partly due to Russia's need for the Zangezur corridor, which is the only way Armenia can be of value to Russia today.

However, France is firmly against the Zangezur corridor and has suggested that European mediators attempt to bypass and postpone the issue.

It is crucial to include the Zangezur corridor in any peace agreement, as without it, the agreement would be meaningless.  If a peace agreement is reached without a commitment to promptly and unconditionally open the Zangezur corridor, Armenia may only use it as a temporary break to gather strength for future aggression and retaliation.

Varden Tsulukidze