By all appearances, the war in Ukraine is close to a "freeze". The West is deliberately doing this by reducing its aid to Ukraine. This was already evident in the summer of this year, when US and NATO aid was dosed to prevent the Ukrainian army from breaking through the multi-layered defences of the Russian Federation in the occupied territories. Now, amid the war in the Middle East and the redirection of substantial US military aid to Israel, military supplies to Ukraine may be reduced even further. However, the Russian Federation, weakened by almost two years of war, is not in a position to make significant gains on the front.

In principle, if the Russian Federation tries again to seize a significant part of Ukraine, "more than it should", the US and NATO will find a way to increase aid to Ukraine and even defeat the Russian Federation. Another thing is that the West does not need a complete defeat of the Russian Federation and its disintegration. After all, in this case the "remnants" of Russia together with huge resources will be "picked up" by China, and the strengthening of China in this way is not in the plans of the USA. That is why the "freezing" of the Ukrainian war by the USA at the stage of "sufficient" weakening of the Russian Federation, but without its complete collapse, seems to be the "optimal option".

As for the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian Federation, it seems to have been decided to leave their return "for later" so as not to "humiliate" Russia once and for all. In principle, this can be done not militarily, but politically, after a change of power in the Russian Federation. The mutiny of the PMC "Wagner" and its march on Moscow in June this year showed that such a change, if desired, can be achieved. However, it seems to have been "slowed down" by an agreement with the same USA through Lukashenko's mediation in order not to start the process of chaos and disintegration of the Russian Federation prematurely.

Either way, freezing the war in Ukraine will "free up" significant military resources in Russia, a country that has become extremely militarised over the past two years. It is unreasonable to simply keep them in bases, barracks or trenches along the line of contact. An inactive and undemobilised army is dangerous. It can quickly disintegrate or become a tool for military mutinies, such as the mutiny of the same PMC "Wagner".

Therefore, having "frozen" the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin may try to use the army to improve its geopolitical position in other directions, and there is little choice here.

The same China will not allow the Kremlin to use the army for a second time in Kazakhstan (as it did in January 2022) and Central Asia to restore its influence there. It is also unlikely that there will be a new attempt to "intensify" Russian military involvement in Syria. The only remaining area where the Russian army can be used to improve Russia's geopolitical position is the Caucasus.

In this direction, it is the inability to use the army "occupied in Ukraine" that has prevented the hopes of revanchists and separatists to "save Artsakh" from being realised. Now there is nobody and nothing for the revanchists in Azerbaijan-Karabakh to "save" with the help of the Russian Federation. But there is something for the Kremlin to "save" in neighbouring Armenia, which has already completely withdrawn from Russian influence and is rapidly establishing military ties with France, the United States and India.

Today we are talking about Armenia's complete withdrawal from the CSTO and the "expulsion" of the Russian military base in Gyumri. In any case, back in October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that he did not see any benefits for Armenia from having a Russian military base in the country. 

For the Kremlin, this will be a major geopolitical defeat. Especially if we consider that Moscow, under the influence of the powerful Hay lobby, was happy to embark on adventures and support separatism. And now it turns out that this policy has led not only to the collapse in the Ukrainian direction and the transition of Russia from the category of "the world's second superpower" to that of an international pariah, but also to the prospect of Russia's complete loss of the same Armenia. All the adventures were conceived for the sake of Armenia's interests and for the sake of creating precedents for the "Artsakh myatsum".

Moreover, Pashinyan is gradually "cleansing" not only the political but also the economic space in the Republic of Armenia of "pro-Russian" elements. The Hay diaspora in the Russian Federation is simply being deprived of its "base" in the Hay ethnic state. Sooner or later, this will also deal a blow to their position in the RF. After all, they were useful to the Kremlin precisely because of their "base" in Armenia, which they also used for "special services". Ruben Vardanyan, for example, as a citizen of Hay, used his structures to help the Russian Federation evade sanctions via Armenia.

This is why the Hai lobby in the Russian Federation is calling for a change of government in Armenia "by military means". There is no other way to regain influence and positions in Armenia.

Meanwhile, the Pashinyan regime is doing everything in its power to provoke the Kremlin into a "military solution" to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Namely, by introducing an additional military contingent into the country in order to install a Kremlin-loyal government in Armenia and preserve the military base. Only the absence of a common border has so far prevented this scenario.

The Armenian government is doing everything it can to ensure that none of its closest neighbours will come to its aid in such a scenario. The peace process with Azerbaijan and Turkey has been suspended, communications have not been opened and no peace treaty has been signed. Therefore, in theory, the proposal to "divide Armenia" by taking the Nagorno-Karabakh corridor and giving everything else to the Kremlin can be considered.

Pashinyan's flirtation with the US and NATO clearly irritates Iran, and Tehran would not mind seeing a pro-Kremlin regime in Yerevan. The only thing that does not suit Iran so far is the Zangezur corridor through the territory of the Republic of Armenia and under the control of Azerbaijan, and Iran offers a similar corridor, but along "its" bank of the Arax and under its control. And here, by torpedoing the "Iranian corridor project" through the United States (the State Department has already declared it "inadmissible"), Pashinyan is simply depriving his regime of Tehran's support.

That leaves Georgia, which is too weak and which, by the grace of the Hay lobby, has 20 per cent of the territory occupied by the Russian Federation. And it is from these territories that a "military corridor" could be opened to Armenia, so that the Kremlin could install its government there and maintain its geopolitical presence in the South Caucasus.

Now that the war in Ukraine has been 'frozen', the Kremlin will have the forces to do so. Georgia, on the other hand, does not really have the forces and capabilities to oppose such plans. Moreover, the pro-Kremlin Hayan fifth column and the associated "Javakh" separatists are operating inside Georgia, just waiting for a new Russian invasion.

Above all, the more the Pashinyan regime provokes the Russian Federation, the more "something has to be done with Armenia". Yerevan's recent ratification of the Rome Statute, which obliges Armenia to have Putin arrested by the International Criminal Court and extradited to The Hague, cannot be seen as anything other than a demonstrative spit in the Kremlin's direction. The spitting and humiliation of Russia by Armenia will, by all accounts, only increase.

Moscow has two options here - either to wait until Pashinyan is humiliated and "thrown out", abusing the Russian military and demonstratively replacing it with the military of NATO countries (not Turkey, of course, but the United States and France), or to change the power in Armenia.

It is unrealistic to do it through elections. It is impossible to do it through a coup, relying only on the Karabakh clan defeated by Pashinyan. This leaves only a "special military operation" with an invasion through Georgia to help the grouping already stationed in Armenia. The forces for this "special operation" will appear after the complete "freezing" of the war in Ukraine, which is very likely to happen in the next 2-3 months.

Varden Tsulukidze