Ukraine has reacted to the transfer of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the occupied territory of Georgia to Abkhazia, to Ochamchira. In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has officially warned that from now on Abkhazia is under attack by the AFU and that the targets of the Ukrainian army are all Russian military bases and warships located there.

"The Russian military fleet is no longer able to operate in the western part of the Black Sea and is gradually fleeing from Crimea. And this is a historic achievement. Recently, the Russian leader was forced to announce the creation of a new base of the Black Sea Fleet, or rather its remnants, on the occupied territory of Georgia, that is, in the south-eastern part of the sea, as far away as possible from Ukrainian missiles and sea drones, but we will get them everywhere," Zelensky said during a video conference at the 2nd parliamentary summit of the Crimean Platform.

According to Zelensky, Ukraine does not yet have full fire control over occupied Crimea, although it is only a matter of time. According to the Ukrainian president, Crimea no longer has a security base and a reliable logistical route for the Russian occupiers, and pro-Ukrainian sentiment in Crimea is becoming more open. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine's goal was the complete de-occupation of Ukrainian lands, including Crimea.

With Ukraine receiving more and more "long-range" missiles from its Western allies and actively arming itself with drones, the further it goes, the more likely it is that the bulk of the Russian navy will be redeployed to occupied Abkhazia. The de-occupation of Abkhazia is becoming as inevitable as the de-occupation of Ukraine's Crimea. But before that, unfortunately, the Abkhazian people may have to undergo serious tests and serve as a "human shield" for the occupiers' military facilities, including the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

It is very strange that the Abkhazian opposition, which is now concentrating on preventing the adoption of the law "on housing", which will give the go-ahead for the mass settlement of Abkhazia by foreigners, almost does not react to the transfer of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to Ochamchira. It is not even particularly outraged that separatist Abkhazia is not only being dragged into the Russian-Ukrainian war, but is also being deliberately "attacked". And this is no less dangerous for the Abkhazians as an ethnic group than the settlement of Abkhazia by foreigners. Finally, the intensity of the Russian-Ukrainian war is still unknown, but it is clear that Ukraine is increasingly resorting to "long-range" strikes against the military infrastructure of the Russian Federation.  

The expansion of the theatre of military operations in the Russian-Ukrainian war to Abkhazia in the event of a massive "exchange of blows" could lead to civilian deaths, a mass exodus of the indigenous population from Abkhazia, and ultimately to the assimilation and extermination of the Abkhazian people. Finally, it is obvious that Russia cannot provide its bases in Gudauta and Ochamchira with the same "density" of modern air defence systems as, for example, in Adler and Novorossiysk or in the area of the Crimean bridge. This means that Russian military installations in occupied Abkhazia will become an easy target for Ukrainian "long-range" missiles and drones. And it is not only the military occupiers who will suffer from these attacks, but also the civilian population, mainly ethnic Abkhazians, who "by a strange coincidence" live mostly where Russian military facilities are located. For some reason, ethnic Abkhazians have not settled there and are not trying to do so now, preferring relatively peaceful 'holiday' areas far from the occupiers' military facilities.

Most likely, after the first attacks on Abkhazia, the occupiers, instead of moving away from Abkhazia and thus ensuring the safety of the Abkhazian population, will, on the contrary, want to "bind Abkhazians with blood" even more. The mobilisation of Abkhazians as citizens of the Russian Federation for the war in Ukraine will increase sharply. It will also be profitable for the occupiers and their propaganda to show footage of dead and wounded Abkhazians as a result of Ukrainian strikes that were acting as a "cover" for military facilities, which will once again accuse Ukraine of "aggression" and turn the Abkhazian-Adygean peoples against it.

The alleged "reconstruction of Sukhumi airport" with an unknown "investor" most likely means its transformation into a base for the Russian air force. The importance of the Sukhumi airfield for Russian aviation is all the greater given that Russian military airfields in occupied Crimea and the North Caucasus are under attack from Ukrainian missiles and drones. And this is another additional risk factor for the peaceful population already living in Sukhumi and its neighbourhood. The separatist regime, following the lead of its "masters", is dragging the Abkhazian people into an absolutely unnecessary war, forcing them to serve as "living cover" for the occupying army and navy and their military facilities.

George Mazniashvili