The second meeting in the 3+3 format at the level of foreign ministers in Tehran on the evening of 23 October 2023 (the first meeting in this format, but at the level of deputy foreign ministers, was held in Moscow at the end of 2021) was preceded both by a change in the geopolitical situation and by tragic events that have greatly complicated the situation in the Middle East region.

Since the end of 2021, Russia has managed to get involved in the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for over a year and a half, with Iran providing substantial support. In such a situation, the Russian Federation did not have the strength to continue to "save" the so-called "Artsakh" separatist project, and in September 2023 it was finally liquidated by the Azerbaijani army. The Azerbaijani flag was raised over Khankendi and other important Karabakh settlements. Armenia's fulfilment of the agreement to unblock communications and open the Zangezur corridor is next on the agenda.

Iran is in a difficult geopolitical situation. In fact, the war between Israel and the Palestinians started on 7 October and the bombardment is mainly affecting the civilian population - the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. Certain geopolitical forces clearly want to drag Iran into this war, and Tehran, which formally supports the Palestinians, is in fact doing its best to avoid being drawn into the "great war".

In such a situation, it is very likely that Tehran's previous plans to do everything in its power to prevent the opening of the Nagorno-Karabakh corridor and the conclusion of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the complete unblocking of communications will be reconsidered. This is in Tehran's own interests.

Iran does not need to organise another war with the prospect of being dragged into it. Although certain external forces clearly want it to happen. Paradoxically, France is contributing to this.

France and Armenia have now signed an official arms purchase agreement. The head of the French defence ministry, Lecornu, said in an interview with the authoritative Le Parisien before his meeting with his Armenian counterpart that it would be announced before the meeting that Armenia would buy a number of weapons from French manufacturers. In particular, "the signing of a contract that will allow the country to protect its skies". It is clear that the French will not fight for Armenian interests themselves, and Russia has no intention of doing so. The complete "surrender" of the "Artsakh" separatists to the Russian Federation has shown this with its own eyes.

In other words, the role of the "military saviour of Armenia" in the region was intended for Iran, which, with the prospect of a clash between Iran and Israel, puts the regime in Tehran in an almost hopeless situation. Meanwhile, the same France, through its agents in its former colony Lebanon, is actively "adding fuel to the fire" by dragging the pro-Iranian proxy Hezbollah into the war with Israel. The "war on two fronts" is becoming a very real threat to Iran in the very near future. As a result, Tehran has suddenly found itself a major player in the South Caucasus peace process.

Georgia's last-minute refusal to attend the 3+3 meeting (it did not attend the 3+3 meeting in Moscow in late 2021) is also understandable, and is likely to be understood by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Moreover, during the recent visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Georgia, represented by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, expressed its readiness to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the conclusion of a peace treaty.

Georgia's refusal to attend the 3+3 meeting in Tehran is partly explained by the domestic political situation in the country. An attempt to impeach President Salome Zurabishvili has just failed in Georgia (out of 100 votes required, the parliamentary majority was able to muster 86 votes in favour of impeachment). Salome Zurabishvili is known to be a former employee of the French Foreign Ministry. It is true that there are no "former" employees of these structures, so Salome Zurabishvili is, on the one hand, a promoter of a "hard pro-French" policy and, on the other, a "defector" to the side of the Georgian opposition, which is just looking for an excuse to accuse the ruling "Georgian Dream" of "abandoning national interests and working for Russia". Therefore, the participation of the Georgian Foreign Minister in such a situation would be problematic.

 Georgia today also expects that the precedent of ending the occupation and liquidation of the separatist regime, which took place in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, will be extended as soon as possible to its occupied territories - Abkhazia and Samara. And Georgia is always ready to start negotiations on the peaceful restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity. Especially since Russia, which occupies these territories, is not in a position today to neglect the need to establish good-neighbourly relations with Georgia. The alternative is the complete elimination of Russia's geopolitical influence in the region, with the exception of two "scraps" of occupied Georgian territory, which will have to be liberated sooner or later.

Meanwhile, on the eve of his visit to Tehran to participate in the 3+3 talks, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also had some problems related to developments in the Middle East. The Russian foreign minister "received a warning" from the pro-Israeli lobby in Russia, which is clearly unhappy with the alliance between Russia and Iran and both countries' support for the Palestinians. Political scientist Yevgeny Satanovsky, host of the Russian propaganda channel Solovyov Live, responded to the "anti-Israeli remarks" by slandering Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, calling the latter a "hard-drinking bitch" on air.

 The scandal was hushed up, Yevgeny Satanovsky was supposedly 'fired' from Vladimir Solovyov's channel and he apologised. However, it is clear to everyone that this demarche is a clear public pressure on Sergei Lavrov. We can only guess what is going on behind the scenes. The clear aim is to get the Russian Foreign Ministry to curtail its support for Israel's geopolitical opponents, first and foremost Iran, on the Palestinian issue.

But those projects with Iran that are "far away" from Palestine and do not concern Israel are very important for Russia today. These include transport corridors both "east-west" (including through the Zangezur corridor, in which Russia is interested as a direct rail link to Turkey) and "north-south".

The fact that these corridors were supported at the Tehran meeting is also evidenced by the initial results of the meeting, as expressed by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov, who participated in the meeting. In particular, Bayramov noted that the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project involving Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, the North-South corridor involving Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, and the Azerbaijan-Iran-Turkey trilateral format are a clear example of the fact that they benefit not only one state, but all the countries involved in them.

Iran is lobbying for an "alternative" to the Zangezur corridor, seeking to provide a railway link between the mainland of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through its territory, which was also mentioned by Ceyhun Bayramov. This time, however, Iran's categorical rejection of the opening of the Zangezur corridor through Meghri was not officially announced at the end of the meeting.

It is hoped that several mutually complementary transit routes will eventually emerge along the East-West route, including the existing and actively developing Baku-Tbilisi-Kars route through Georgia and the Zangezur corridor.

In addition, the participants of the 3+3 format meeting in Tehran confirmed the interest in the conclusion of peace in the region, primarily between Azerbaijan and Armenia. "The sides expressed satisfaction with the processes of normalisation of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, between Azerbaijan and Iran, between Armenia and Turkey. Russia actively supports the normalisation processes on all these issues and we will continue to do so," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the meeting. He also stressed that the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia had been resolved and that the sides now needed to take further practical steps to fully normalise relations.

 "Both sides agreed that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, and this was the main unresolved issue. Now, of course, there are practical steps left for the full normalisation of relations, first of all the preparation of a peace treaty, the demarcation of borders and the establishment of unimpeded transport and economic ties, as was agreed at the meetings of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia," the Russian foreign minister said.

 All this means that a "revanchist" war, which the Hay nationalists were hoping for, is out of the question. Neither Iran nor Russia is interested in that today.

Alexandre Chkheidze