On 21 September 2023, almost at the very moment when a meeting between representatives of the Azerbaijani authorities and representatives of the Karabakh Caucasian community was about to begin in the town of Yevlakh, devoted to the issues of the beginning of the reintegration of the latter into the Azerbaijani state, Caucasian nationalist resources began to "spread" information that allegedly Azerbaijani troops had "broken the ceasefire" and were "storming Stepanakert" (Khankendi). As proof, footage of the streets of Khankendi was presented, with gunfire and explosions heard somewhere in the distance. Immediately a new wave of hysteria was raised about the fact that "the Karabakh Hayyas are facing genocide".

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which today is methodically taking full control of the territory of Karabakh, which until recently was under the control of Russian "peacekeepers" and separatists, does not need shots and bloodshed. Firstly, because it cannot change anything in principle - the separatists have capitulated, they are disarming and leaving their positions, which are coming under full Azerbaijani control. They have no chance of organising new resistance. During the last "1-day war" their formations were completely defeated. Whether the separatists disarm or leave their positions a few hours earlier or later is not a matter of principle.

On the contrary, it is in Azerbaijan's interest that those of the Karabakh Hayyis who do not want to become citizens of the country leave its territory quietly, in an organised manner and without unnecessary fuss, and even more so without excesses in the form of looting and mass arson (by the Hayyis themselves). Those who wanted to become citizens of Azerbaijan also began to solve this problem in an organised manner with the official representatives of the Azerbaijani civil authorities. The army did its job and solved all the problems with the precision of a jewel. The Azerbaijani army fulfilled its task of restoring the territorial integrity of the country, so it was the turn of the civil authorities to deal with reintegration and the establishment of peaceful life.

But images of "genocide", "killing of civilians", "blood and destruction" are simply needed by the international Hai lobby and its propaganda. They desperately need "confirmation" that the alleged "genocide of 1915" is continuing. The biggest defeat and "fiasco of their life's work" for them will be if the reintegration of Karabakh happens peacefully and quietly. It will be the failure of the century for the Hayy lobby if there are no corpses, blood, pictures of "atrocities" and if the Hayyis in Azerbaijani Karabakh live as peacefully as they do in Turkish Istanbul. Therefore, provocations are and will be organised. And possibly bloody and despicable provocations. It is not excluded that the separatists, who have not yet laid down their arms, will disguise themselves in the uniform of the Azerbaijani army and kill their own Nagorno-Karabakh civilians in a showy manner and then start to spread the footage of the "genocide" on social networks. Attacks on the Azerbaijani military to provoke return fire and disrupt the peaceful reintegration of Karabakh cannot be ruled out. Kidnapping of children and spreading of fakes about their "brutal murders" is possible. The killings can be organised at any time by the separatists themselves.

The separatist criminals will most likely plan a provocation - create a picture - "bloodshed of civilians and panic flight of Hayyis from Karabakh" in order to demand an urgent "humanitarian corridor" to Armenia. Then they can "get lost" in the crowd of refugees and "slip through".

Today, the separatists have a "window" of literally a few weeks left for such provocations. This is when the separatist so-called "authorities" will be dissolved and cease to function, but the Azerbaijani police and civil administration have not yet begun to control the liberated districts.

Today, the separatist leaders are ready to pay any amount of money to leave Karabakh under the protection of Russian peacekeepers and avoid responsibility for their crimes. There is no way to "jump" the checkpoint in Lachin. It is also difficult for them to organise a mass escape of separatist criminals through the airport in Khojaly so that it goes unnoticed.

We can say with certainty that the separatists drove a crowd of civilians to the airport in Khojaly, which is used by Russian peacekeepers, and tried to escape from there under the cover of this crowd. There is a certain symbolism in this - on the land where separatists organised the genocide of Azerbaijanis, killing in cold blood Azerbaijani refugees, women and children, who left their homes in the snow through fields and forests in the terrible February of 1992, today they are again gathering crowds of refugees - but already Hayevs.

 Aleksandre Chkheidze