Armenians may leave the South Caucasus after Russia

06.09.23 16:20

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's statement in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that "Russia itself is leaving the South Caucasus because of the steps it takes or does not take". Peskov said that Russia would not leave the South Caucasus, but also reminded Pashinyan that more Armenians live in Russia than in Armenia itself.


Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia values constructive relations with Armenia, but it is impossible to agree with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's thesis about the failure of the Russian peacekeeping mission, RIA Novosti reports.


"Russia is an absolutely integral part of this region, so it cannot go anywhere. Russia cannot leave Armenia," Peskov told reporters. He urged not to forget that "there are more Armenians living in Russia than in Armenia itself", most of whom are patriotic citizens of the Russian Federation and make a worthy contribution to the country's development.


In the context of the current geopolitical situation, Dmitry Peskov's words can be interpreted as follows: if Russia leaves the South Caucasus, it will "take" the Armenians with it. But without the territory where the Armenian state is located today.


 After all, this territory is known to be historical Azerbaijani and Georgian land, and if it is populated by Armenians today, it is only thanks to Russia. So there will be many more Armenians living in the Russian Federation than there are now. And there may be no Armenians at all on the present territory of the Republic of Armenia.


And this is not a threat of "genocide", but simply an objective reality. After all, by "expelling" Russia, the leadership of the Republic of Armenia, in order to preserve at least some signs of a functioning economy (not to mention security issues), should ideally simultaneously establish relations with its neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan. First of all, to open communications (the same Zangezur corridor) and to develop trade and economic cooperation. So that when Russia "leaves", Armenians will have something to live on. The help of the diaspora will not be enough. Economically, Armenians (just over 2 million) cannot exist on the territory of the Republic of Armenia without relations with Russia. Here, in conditions of almost total economic isolation, it will be difficult to feed even 1 million people.


But the point is that Armenia, which 'kicks out' Russia, will not live peacefully with its neighbours. It will start a new war to regain more territory. It has no resources for this, especially demographic resources. Any new "one-on-one" war is guaranteed to be a catastrophic loss for Armenia.


The question is, who will fight for the Armenians? Neither France nor the USA will fight for Armenia. Let's assume that it will be the same Iranian IRGC..... But by breaking relations with Russia, expelling the Russian military base and even sending the IRGC to fight for Armenian interests, the Armenian authorities will condemn their country to the scourge of war, population loss and ruin.


One can see how "skilled in warfare" the IRGC is in Syria, where entire provinces have been depopulated after battles involving this organisation.  Even if the IRGC were to fight in the ruins of Armenia and "hold the front" (which is unlikely), it would not make things any easier for the Armenians.  The present Republic of Armenia will simply be completely abandoned and the question of the continued existence of the Armenian state will be raised.


Once upon a time, Russia and the Russians created Armenia. They settled Armenian settlers on foreign lands. They gave them the opportunity to strengthen and displace the indigenous population. Then they gave them the opportunity to create their own nation-state on foreign land, which became mono-ethnic while it was still part of the USSR. After Armenia became independent, Russia provided its security and military potential for decades. In fact, it seized foreign lands - the same Azerbaijani Karabakh - "in addition" to those already within its internationally recognised borders. Russia also supported Armenia economically. It is obvious that the Armenian people are being prepared for a great exodus, because as soon as Russia withdraws from the South Caucasus, Armenian settlers will once again disperse around the world. The global players do not need the state of Armenia, but its multilaterally functioning diaspora.



George Mazniashvili

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