ANALYTICS

Armenian nationalists, for the umpteenth time in history, have contracted a geopolitical blindness that is dangerous for the Armenian people

10.04.23 12:00


Cooperation between Georgia and Azerbaijan assumes global significance for the movement of cargo along the median corridor from China through the South Caucasus to Europe. Azerbaijan and Georgia are becoming key links in this corridor. Especially in light of Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine (and Russia's international isolation) and the worsening situation both around Iran and in that country itself.

 

It is in this context that the visit of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili to the city of Gabala (the ancient capital of Caucasian Albania) last week was of great significance.

 

It is symbolic that while receiving the high guest, the President of Azerbaijan recalled that during his visit to Georgia he had been in Mtskheta, the ancient capital of Georgia. "I was in Mtskheta during my visit to Georgia and today you are in the Gabala region. I think this is a very good tradition and we get the opportunity to get acquainted with amazing historical and cultural heritage both in Georgia and Azerbaijan. This strengthens our friendship" - noted Ilham Aliyev.

 

Such symbolism is significant in light of attempts by Armenian nationalists to "monopolise antiquity and history" in the South Caucasus. Moreover, they do this on foreign lands by means of falsification methods, regularly "unearthing" another falsification: "Tigranokert" or appropriating other people's churches, including Albanian and Georgian ones.

 

But Georgians and Azerbaijanis have their own real history of friendship and cultural interaction, dating back to the same ancient times, and there are places connected to this history. In order to remember facts of this history two brotherly countries do not need to invent something and resort to falsifications.

 

In the modern world cooperation between Georgia and Azerbaijan is extremely important for the energy security of Europe, which in the recent past was too dependent on energy supplies from Russia. Ilham Aliyev emphasized this:

 

"Georgia and Azerbaijan play a critical role in ensuring energy security in Europe, and this role is increasing day by day. These friendly ties and cooperation between our countries in this direction are undoubtedly crucial for Europe's energy security. Every year we increase the scale and volume of natural gas supply to Europe. This year, Azerbaijan has decided to supply 24.5 billion tonnes to international markets. This figure is growing and, according to our memorandum of understanding we signed with the European Union last year, by 2027 we will supply Europe with more than 20 billion cubic metres of natural gas. It is our goal, our benchmark, and I hope we will achieve it", Ilham Aliyev said.

 

Today, the President of Azerbaijan is actively doing everything to ensure smooth operation of the East-West corridor and cooperation in this area with all interested countries. And not only Turkic ones. The other day there was a fruitful state visit and meetings of the Azerbaijani president with the leadership of Tajikistan, now the visit of the Georgian prime minister and meetings with President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev is soon to pay a visit to Astana, during which the leaders of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will discuss the same new transit project from China through Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Turkey to South-Eastern Europe.

 

There remains one link in the middle corridor that, contrary to geography and the interests of all the countries in the region, has so far been 'left out'.  This is the Zangezur corridor, which, as we recall, should already be functioning, since its opening under the November 2020 peace agreement is the main condition for the functioning of the Lachin corridor in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

 

 However, the Lachin corridor is functioning, and for a long time it has even been used to smuggle weapons and Armenian fighters into Azerbaijani territory and illegally export Azerbaijani ore, while the Armenian side is in no hurry to open the Zangezur corridor. Although Russia, the country that has a peacekeeping mission in Azerbaijan's Karabakh until November 2024, has now also become interested in its functioning.

 

But there is another regional player - Iran, which demonstrates more and more hostility to the idea of opening the Zangezur corridor. To the extent that it is ready to "help ignite war" for Armenian revanchists, to send its troops to Zangezur and actually occupy this territory if it comes to opening of the corridor. And in this Iran finds 100% support from absolutely 100% insane Armenian nationalists.

 

On the face of it this is incompatible with the regime in Yerevan's apparent 'pro-Westernism' and its reliance on the US, which has gone so far as to say that the Armenian army is prepared to take part in NATO exercises, although these exercises are clearly directed against Armenia's current formal ally, Russia. Both the US and the same NATO bloc are clearly hostile to Iran and are unlikely to tolerate the Iranians establishing themselves on the territory from which Russia is displaced with the help of "over-allies".

 

However, the point is that for Iran in terms of settings of the current regime it is important to "dissect" Turkic world in Zangezur. Iranian great-power mentality multiplied by historical complexes cannot reconcile with cooperation and economic integration of the Turkic countries, even if this is beneficial for most other countries of the world (including Persian-language Tajikistan).

 

 For politicians in Tehran, the main thing is the "Zangezur rupture" of the Turkic world itself. They want to maintain this gap at any cost, even at the cost of military action and turning the Republic of Armenia into a battlefield. The Iranian authorities will not hesitate to make new sacrifices, on the verge of a "genocide" among Armenians, so that these sacrifices would pay for the continued existence of the "rupture". The Armenian nationalists agree to be "used and sacrificed" once again, for the umpteenth time in history, which shows the obvious shortsightedness and geopolitical blindness and the danger to the very existence of the Armenian people.

 

True, there are factors that may cool down the adventurers in Yerevan and Tehran from acting to "set fire" to the Zangezur corridor. First of all, it is the military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which makes the price of aggression on foreign territories prohibitive for Iran.  And secondly, the existence of "alternative" transit routes, inaccessible to Iranian militaries, devalues the meaning of its aggression in the area of Zangezur. 

 

And here an important place is occupied by routes linking Azerbaijan and Turkey through Georgia, which serves as a key link in the middle corridor between China and Europe and the route providing "transit security" for member countries.

 

By being able to use transit through Georgia, our country's partners can increase its use in case of unexpected stoppages of supply or transit through other routes. Here we are talking about energy security in Europe, as well as security of transport communication between the regions of Azerbaijan divided by the "Zangezur wedge".

 

It is not a secret that threatening with aggression in Zangezur, Iran also blackmails Azerbaijan with full blockade of Nakhchivan, which is now linked to the rest of Azerbaijan mainly through the Iranian territory. But cooperation between Azerbaijan and Georgia and the development of transit through Georgian territory completely devalues such blackmail.

 

On the other hand, it should be remembered that cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan completely depreciated Russia's economic blackmail against Georgia, which occupied Georgian territories. Georgia found a substitute for Russian energy resources in Azerbaijan, and transit of many goods through Russian territory was replaced by transit through Turkey. And today, Russia itself, which fell under sanctions for aggression against Ukraine and is "blocked from the West", depends on transit through Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan and is itself interested in developing these transit routes.

 

 

Alexander Gedevanov

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