Armenian nationalism demonstrates a complete geopolitical inadequacy, which is leading the Armenian people, and indeed Armenian statehood, to collapse. They continue to dream of revenge and a "victorious war". Armenian nationalists are now hoping that Iran, more precisely, the so-called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), operating as a PMC (private military company), will fight for their interests.

This very hope reeks of sheer madness. Incredible Islamophobes in Armenia hope for the "Islamic guards", which, remember, formally hate Israel precisely for oppression of Muslims (but, at that, by the way, Muslims, today, live peacefully in Israel, have their own mosques, their own deputies in parliament, etc.). The Armenian nationalists, who have maniacally destroyed and expelled every single local Muslim in the territory under their control for decades, who have destroyed and desecrated mosques and Muslim cemeteries, who have destroyed any hint of the historical Islamic past of these lands, want Iranian, however declared, "Muslim defenders" to fight so that they can expand the living space of Armenian "cleansed of Muslims".

Obviously, only a peace treaty with its neighbours and the establishment of relations with them on the basis of recognition of the inviolability of internationally recognised borders gives the Republic of Armenia a chance to exist and develop. Any war, however, will predictably turn into a catastrophe. Quick and inevitable. Whoever the Armenian nationalists initially hoped for by fomenting this war - the West, Russia or Iran.

Let's start with the fact that Armenians themselves do not want to fight for their "great Hayastan" and "Artsakh". And this is evidenced by Anne Hakobyan, the wife of Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. She confesses that during the 44-day war Armenia had more than 11,000 deserters.

"We like to lose reality. And I've always wondered why we hide the truth. Today I am forced to tell you what the reality is. And the reality is that during the 44-day war we had 11,000 deserters. Deserters, I can't put it any other way. Do you understand what we're talking about? Do you have any idea what 11,000 is? When, during the war, the commander-in-chief called for volunteers to go and defend the homeland, this call was not followed. When I, as a woman, decided to form a unit and show that the need was so great that women were taking part in the war, there was still no good response to that undertaking. This needs to be talked about. We must not hide the reality.

We currently have court cases in Yerevan, where the defendants are army officers, soldiers who passed information to the enemy during the war. This is high treason. Treason is when you leave the border you are entrusted with.

We should look back on the 44-day war, analyse our actions and admit without shame that we were afraid. Not everyone has to be a hero. But it is a shame to hide it.

I do not know what you will say after my words, what you will think of me. But we must become the masters of our state. We must develop our country and preserve our descendants," declares Anna Hakobyan.

This is the characteristic of "Armenian patriotism" as of autumn 2020, when the myth about the "invincibility of the Armenian army" introduced by Armenian nationalist propaganda was still alive and an entire generation of Armenians was brought up on the "victory in the first Karabakh war", modestly concealing the fact that this victory was won exclusively by Russian soldiers and Russian weapons.

However, after the defeat in the 44-day war, the former "confidence in invincibility" has disappeared. Moreover, with the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, tens of thousands of Armenians flocked to Armenia, thus hiding from mobilisation in Russia. It is unlikely that they, having fled from one war, are so eager to fight in the other. And their moods have passed on to the Armenians in the republic of Armenia, who are not very eager to go to the front.

That is, Armenians themselves do not want to fight for "Artsakh". In case of a new war, the number of deserters will be much higher than the previous 11,000. According to their plans and expectations, Russians or Iranians must fight for Armenians.

But the Russians and especially the Iranians will fight only for themselves and their interests, if at all. "Saving Armenians from "genocide" is not in the list of these interests by definition. Saving the Armenians is a matter for the Armenians themselves, and the Armenians, as we can see, are totally unwilling to take up arms to do so. Nor do they want to think rationally and soberly.

Even the new hundreds of thousands of Armenian refugees, in the event of a "big war", are not considered a "big gain" in either Moscow or Tehran. On the contrary: it is clear that Russia will soon have to face the problem of hosting millions of refugees from the war zone, which is rapidly expanding and already covers all Russian regions bordering Ukraine. Iran has yet to fully integrate the refugees from Afghanistan. So, it is not quite clear where Armenians will flee from Armenia, which was turned into a war zone by Armenian nationalists' warmongering efforts.

The fact that the "escape" in case of a "major war" is obvious, as well as the fact that no one will save the Armenian state. The West will limit itself to verbal sympathy and, at best, will send its officials to "cry" at another "genocide" memorial some day.

The Russians are stuck in the war in Ukraine and no matter how hard the Armenian lobby of the Russian Federation tries to "deploy" the Russian military machine in the southern direction today it will not be possible with all their will. And the rampant Russophobia in Armenia, which is clearly stirred up by the authorities in Yerevan, is the least conducive to the fact that Russia will "join in" for Armenians in case they do ignite a war. "The final touch" well characterising Armenia as Russia's "ally" was Yerevan's ratification of the Rome Statute immediately after Vladimir Putin was declared wanted by the International Criminal Court.  And now the Russian president in Armenia is simply obliged to be arrested and sent to The Hague. And after that Yerevan still hopes that the Kremlin will be thinking about how to "save Armenia"?

There are almost schizophrenic hopes that "Iran will fight for us" and at the same time "the West will help us". At the same time, Armenian politicians themselves are not aware of how much these hopes contradict each other. Given Iran's position as an international pariah and Western hostility to the regime in Tehran.

Keenly sobering thoughts about the sad prospects for Armenian statehood, should the current insane policies of the Armenian government continue, have been described by political scientist Arthur Khachikian, a Stanford University political scientist:

Artur Khachikyan's main point is that in the event of a major regional war, Armenia could lose everything. 

 "There could be peace here too; there could be a very peaceful Turkish province in Yerevan. We will live, if we manage to get to the airport, we will live in Moscow in the Krasnodar region, in Paris in Los Angeles" - these are the prospects Artur Khachikyan outlines.

Very reasonable thoughts. To this we can add that only a minority of Armenians can reach the airport, and not all of them can be evacuated by planes. Most of them will have to run towards the Georgian border.

Aware of such a very likely prospect, at least based on the instinct of self-preservation, Armenian nationalists now need to stop their fierce Georgianophobia and support of separatism in both Samtskhe-Javakheti, and to stop supporting the occupation and ethnic cleansing of the Tskhivali region of Abkhazia.

Yet nothing of the kind is even close to happening. The Armenian lobby is now busy "settling apartments" for Armenian settlers in the Georgian lands of Abkhazia, confident that the separatist status of the territory will be forever, and demographic dominance of Armenians here is inevitable. By the way, the Armenian nationalists in Yerevan in their extreme hatred for Russia have never once mentioned that the Russian Federation occupied Georgian Abkhazia in their interests. Apparently they hope that Russians and Putin, so hated by them, will help Armenians from the Republic of Armenia and "Artsakh" to settle in "apartments" in Abkhazia before they are extradited to The Hague by their Armenian "allies".  But, first, they will have to find time to get to "Abkhazian apartments". And secondly, they will anyway be taken away from looters and resettlers and returned to their rightful owners - Georgian refugees.

Varden Tsulukidze