The majority of international experts agree that Russia's defeat in the current war in Ukraine is almost inevitable. The whole question is how quickly the top brass in Moscow understand the hopelessness of continuing the war and aggression. Following this, the question of the future of the Russian federation is very important. It is clear that it will have to fully de-occupy the currently occupied Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldovan territories (Crimea, Donbass, Abkhazia, Samachablo and Transnistria). But the longer the war lasts, the less likely it is that the Russian Federation itself will be preserved in its present form, the more likely it will sprout.

It is already obvious how such a disintegration will take place - along the borders of the Autonomous Communities. As a result, at least seven independent states may be formed in the North Caucasus: Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia and Adygeya. With the exception of Adygea, which has an "enclave" position within Krasnodar Krai, the six newly independent states will have a border with Georgia. Moreover, all six will only have access to the Black Sea, which is connected to the world ocean, through Georgia ("the rest" of Russia may impede the new independent states in this).

To ensure that the new neighbours will not suddenly descend on the Georgian state "unexpectedly" and be unprepared to take advantage of the opportunities, work should already be done now with representatives of the relevant nations in Georgia.

Regrettably, very little work has been done at the state level on cooperation with the peoples of the North Caucasus with the aim of their eventual independence from Russia. Only traditional friendly relations between Georgian and Ingush peoples can be noted. The only significant moment was the recognition by Parliament of Georgia in 2011 of the genocide of the Circassian people in the 19th century, during the Caucasian War. After that no significant significant steps towards the historical aspirations of the peoples of the North Caucasus have been made.

Meanwhile, the Nogay people living in small groups in the three present autonomies of the Russian Federation bordering Georgia - Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan and Chechnya in their time were subjected to a bloodier genocide than the Circassians. A significant part of the Circassians at least was given a chance to escape by resettling in the Ottoman Empire, while most Nogays did not have such a chance of salvation.

The representative of the Nogay movement Anvar Kurmanakaev reminded about the terrible fate of the Nogay people during the 5th Forum of Free Peoples of Post-Russia held in the European Parliament building in Brussels on January 31, 2023.

"Much has been said about genocide, and I also want to remind that there was a genocide of the Nogai people under Catherine the Great. At most, 500 thousand Nogai people were annihilated, but it is hidden! We remained a small nation that did not decide anything. We were divided into small pieces and given to different territories so that we could not be heard at all. We lost the Astrakhan Khanate! Astrakhan has been occupied for 500 years," said Anvar Kurmanakayev.

Anvar Kurmanakaev appealed to the world for the world community to recognise the genocide of the Nogay people. "Horror, what Russian soldiers did on our territory, they took newborn babies and beat them against the wall, and then laughed that the baby's head was bursting like a ripe watermelon" - Kurmanakayev told terrible details of the genocide. Genocide in Kuban was carried out against Nogais (including those forcibly deported from the southern part of today's Ukraine), "the great Russian military leader", and at the same time executioner Alexander Suvorov, who bragged in his report to Empress Catherine II about the extermination of the Kuban Nogai Horde.
By the way, Armenian nationalists are now "clinging" to Suvorov, claiming his "Armenian roots". Whether Suvorov had such roots is a big question, but in terms of harshness towards the civilian population he clearly has a "spiritual kinship" with no less harsh terrorists-Dashnaks.

The "small pieces" of historical Nogay lands mentioned by Anvar Kurmanakaev include small enclaves of compactly settled Nogays in Karachay-Cherkessia and Dagestan. Although the historical lands of the Nogay are much larger, they included a vast territory from the lower Danube to the Urals. It is not by accident Anvar Kurmanakaev noted that 200 thousand Nogais live in the Astrakhan region, and in the future they can create a Nogay state of Astrakhan to "finally get rid of oppression and poverty".

In principle, even in the case of Russia's collapse, the recreation of the Astrakhan Khanate as a Nogay state is unlikely. However, this does not mean that while supporting the Circassians as much as possible in their demands for at least a partial restoration of historical justice, Georgia should not support similar demands of the Nogays.

The long-standing friendly relations between Georgians and other North Caucasian peoples should also be restored. For example, we should recall the traditional friendly relations that existed between the Svan Georgians and their neighbours - the two other Turkic-speaking peoples of the northern Caucasus - the Karachais and Balkars, related to the Nogays.

It should be remembered that even after the return to Karachay and Balkaria after the illegal deportation of these peoples in 1944, the Svan Georgians acted as generously as the other Georgians who settled on the lands of the deported Ingush at about the same time. When the Georgians returned to their landlords after 1956, they returned their houses and all their property intact and this is gratefully remembered by the older generations of the deported peoples.

As of today, for Georgia, which gives shelter to tens of thousands of Russian citizens fleeing mobilisation and sending them to war in Ukraine, it should provide such protection and shelter, primarily to representatives of the North Caucasian peoples. Unfortunately, on the contrary, not the best solutions, in terms of prospects for building relations with the peoples of the North Caucasus, have taken place here.

In particular, under the pretext of "combating religious extremism" many representatives of the people of the northern Caucasus, especially from Dagestan and Chechnya were denied entry into Georgia. Such prejudice, which borders on discrimination on ethnic and religious grounds, can have a negative impact on Georgia's image even among residents of the North Caucasus who are loyal to it.

Alexandre Zakhariadze