ANALYTICS
30.11.22 14:10
With each passing day there is more and more evidence that, having hopelessly lost the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is looking for an "alternative" course of aggression. The aim is to use its remaining forces to stage a "small victorious war" and thus reassert its power on a wave of hurrah-patriotic psychosis. All the more so as the influential Armenian lobby is increasingly pushing the Russian leadership to "save Armenia" and "Artsakh" through another "victory over Georgia" and a "military corridor" through Georgian territory.
The danger of such a scenario was once again reminded of by the opposition Russian telegram channel "General SVR" on 29 November 2022:
"Putin, in meetings with the leadership of the power and military blocs, again raises the topic of realising geopolitical ambitions towards neighbouring states, where "victory" can be virtually guaranteed and the price will be negligible. It is about the 'liberation' of Georgia and the 'rescue' of Armenia, as well as the voluntary and forceful takeover of the Republic of Belarus. Saakashvili's assassination should trigger a protest movement and anti-Russian demonstrations in Georgia, and the Russian army should solve this problem quickly and effectively. Mobilization after the new year in Russia is also factored into the geopolitical plans. Putin believes that defeat in Ukraine will almost pass unnoticed thanks to easy victories in other areas. And while earlier plans for annexation included the northern regions of Kazakhstan, after China's guarantee of Kazakhstan's territorial integrity, Putin's plans have changed dramatically. Putin is looking for a way out, which simply does not exist, and is ready to sacrifice millions of lives for this purpose..."
Here we need to clarify that Putin is not so much seeking new aggression against Georgia and "salvation of Armenia" but rather influential Armenian lobby represented by Lavrov-Kalantaryan, Mishustin, Migranyan, Bagdasarov, Simonyan and all those who remain behind the scenes in the Kremlin government. Moreover, the Armenian nationalists, who have effectively held the Kremlin hostage to their interests, are now in a hurry, seeking "time" to unleash the war before a peace agreement is signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
After all, it is obvious that after a peace agreement, which is possible only on the basis of recognition of the territorial integrity of the parties, no one in the world will even want to hear about any such "Artsakh". That is why, feverish attempts are made to revive the "Artsakh" separatist project, by sending "best Armenian cadres" that are available "in store" in the Kremlin and trying to torpedo the conclusion of a peace agreement.
One such "reserve cadre" - Ruben Vardanyan, a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin, has already become a fake "state minister" in a separatist "Artsakh" project. Also, one of the likely candidates for the post of "Artsakh foreign minister" is former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, who from 1994 to April 2008, simultaneously with the Armenian Foreign Ministry, headed the delegation of the Republic of Armenia to the OSCE Minsk Group negotiations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Who is now in charge of the 'Artsakh project' and what plans it is linked to was eloquently demonstrated by Ruben Vardanyan's recent trip to Moscow. In fact, an agent of the Kremlin and the Moscow Armenian lobby "sent" to Karabakh came to his "superiors" for new instructions. He also paid a visit to the Moscow School of Management in Skolkovo, where he took part in an event at which he was presented as the "state minister of the Republic of Artsakh".
Meanwhile, the chairman of the Skolkovo Foundation's board of trustees is the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, and the foundation is financed from the federal budget, among other things. And Dmitry Medvedev, among other things, is known for the fact that he was President of the Russian Federation during the Russian aggression against Georgia in 2008 and it was he who organized the occupation through the recognition of "independence" of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region.
At the same time as the attempts to revive the "Artsakh" separatist project and prevent the conclusion of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, preparations for provocations on Georgian territory may also be under way, covertly and without much publicity, in order to organize aggression against Georgia again and to force a "military corridor" to Armenia and "Artsakh". Moreover, events are hastened by the fact that Nikol Pashinyan is clearly intent on withdrawing Armenia from the CSTO and depriving the Russian military contingent of grounds for its military presence in Armenia. Therefore, the level of possible provocations, which may be organised by the "fifth column" inside Georgia, in particular, by the Armenian "Javakh" separatists, is significantly increasing.
George Mazniashvili
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