Russia's aggression against Ukraine has led to a prolonged war and the aggravation of global problems, from food and logistics to the threat of "unfreezing old" armed conflicts. According to many experts, the next victim of aggression might be Georgia, which has already lost 20% of its territory in 2008 due to the separatist wars and aggression organized by the Russian Federation, and has over 300 thousand refugees.

The Ukrainian website obozrevatel.com published the article "Putin may invade Georgia because of failures in Ukraine - CNN:

"It was not that long ago that Georgia resisted Russian aggression on its territory. In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin stopped only because he had achieved his goals of strengthening himself in the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgians believe that if the Russian leader now fails in Ukraine, he may move his troops here to achieve at least small victories.

Anti-Russian sentiments are very strong in Georgia today. Signs of support for Ukraine are everywhere - from F...Putin inscriptions on the walls of houses to the sale of souvenirs in blue and yellow colors," American scholar Lincoln Mitchell, who visited Tbilisi, wrote in his column for CNN.

There are stickers on the doors of restaurants with the Ukrainian flag and an invitation to anyone who considers Putin a war criminal. The atmosphere in the city is tense because Georgia has not banned Russians since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, and they have rushed into the country.

Locals state that this is not mainly due to emigration because of disagreement with the actions of Putin's regime, but rather simply a desire to spend money here. Conflicts arise in restaurants because the Russians toast to their army and are always ready to clash with the locals, Mitchell shared his observations.

"There is unease in the politicians about the Russian invasion (of Ukraine. - Ed.). One MP affiliated with the ruling party told me that his fear was that if Putin won a quick victory in Ukraine, Georgia would be next in line. But several scholars and activists pointed out that if Putin got bogged down in Ukraine, he would need a quick victory somewhere, and it could spill over into Georgia," the scholar said.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili also voiced these fears in her conversation with Mitchell. Current political tensions in the country have been exacerbated by Russia's attack on Ukraine. Politicians close to the government have called for avoiding war. Representatives of the opposition believe that the authorities are going too far in their attempts to appease the aggressor.

Despite the difficult situation in which Georgia now finds itself, President Zurabishvili sees a unique chance for her country because of the unity that the West is now showing towards Ukraine. Perhaps Georgia can get the same support that it did not in 2008.

"We have an opportunity and a chance that we didn't have before the war, which is the path to membership in the European Union, we have no right to give up that chance," she said.

Joining NATO and the EU is unlikely for Georgia in the short term. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Ukrainians' desperate resistance are changing the international agenda and geopolitical realities. If Georgia can get rid of Russian pressure, it will have the opportunity to strengthen the country's security and realize its long-standing aspirations in the international arena. But this will not happen as long as there is a risk of being dragged into a war with Russia without any support from outside.

As OBOZREVATEL reported earlier, at the end of April the Georgian authorities reacted to the words of Alexey Arestovich, advisor to the head of the President's Office, according to which Georgia has a historic opportunity to return control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Tbilisi said it had no intention of liberating its occupied territories by military means. According to Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili, a "second front" is out of the question. The politician stressed that this is the principled position of the current government”  End of article

In principle, given the disparity of forces and the threat of numerous casualties as a result of a possible Russian thunderstorm, it is understandable that the Georgian government would like to prevent war and a new Russian aggression with all its might. However, the whole issue is that the powerful Armenian lobby is not hiding its desire to trample the Georgian statehood with the help of Russia. Undoubtedly, the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine have somewhat cooled its ardour, but the intention to tear away Samtskhe-Javakheti ("Javakhk") from Georgia and to punch a "corridor to the sea" for Armenia through Georgian territory has not disappeared.

Much will depend on peace settlements between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey. Full-scale peace agreements and the unblocking of communications. Demarcation and delimitation of internationally recognized borders, the refusal of Armenia to support the "Artsakh" separatists will finally remove the ground from under the feet of the revanchists and force Armenia to establish civilized relations with all its neighbors, excluding territorial claims and support for separatism. This includes Georgia.

On the contrary, if the revanchists succeed in disrupting the peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the danger of Russian aggression against Georgia increases manifold. After all, thereby Russia will not only take "psychological revenge" for the failures in Ukraine, but also "punch a corridor" to "allied" Armenia and "cut" the East-West transit routes passing through Georgia.

Moreover, by aggression against Georgia, Russia can deliver an "ultimatum" to other geopolitical players, which today "bypass" the Russian Federation blocked by sanctions through Azerbaijan and Georgia. A new aggression against Georgia would give Russia control of all land transcontinental communications between China and Europe. At the same time, the Armenian revanchist lobby receives after such aggression not only "Russian bayonets" to resume its expansion into foreign lands, but also a significant piece of Georgian territories.

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