On 8 May, the second round of the so-called "presidential elections" was held in the occupied Tskhinvali region. The separatist leader Anatoly Bibilov, who had staked his campaign on a "referendum on the joining of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation" lost. A new separatist puppet was Alan Gagloev.

This person also came from the occupational structure of the FSB-KGB but he, nevertheless, did not raise the question of annexation of the separatist entity by Russia. That's why Alan Gagloev won in the end. Ossetians, after death certificates started to arrive in their region informing them about the deaths of their sons in Ukraine, began to reconsider their former views on "unity with Russia".

Nevertheless, until the inauguration of Gagloev scheduled for May 24th, Bibilov formally remains the separatist "president". And he immediately after his defeat on May 13th appointed a so-called "referendum" on "joining of "South Ossetia" to Russia" on July 17th 2022.

This step is unlikely to have been taken by Bibilov following a direct order from the Kremlin. The thing is that against the background of defeats in Ukraine, the Russian leadership is no longer concerned with "referendums". Including in the occupied Ukrainian territories, where the Ukrainian armed forces are rapidly liberating their land.

So while in Tskhinvali there were "elections" and votes were being counted, the Ukrainian troops drove the occupants away from Kharkov, reaching the Russian-Ukrainian border for a considerable length of time. It is clear that even if the occupiers had managed to hold a "referendum" on the occupied territories or incorporated them into the Russian Federation without a referendum, it would not have changed anything. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting for their own lands and liberate them, without paying particular attention to where the occupier refers to them. 

The Russian invaders may refer to the occupied Ukrainian land as separatist "people's republics" or even as "Russian territory". But for the entire international community, it is Ukrainian territory. If the Ukrainian army reaches Crimea, it will start liberating it just as it had previously liberated the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and is now liberating Kharkiv and intends to liberate Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The Kremlin is beginning to realize that no matter how many "referendums" are held on foreign territories, after the defeat in Ukraine (the possibility of which is becoming increasingly understood) someone else's property will still have to be given up.

But then the question is - why is Anatoly Bibilov playing the comedy? Why would he announce a "referendum" that the occupants and the new puppet are unlikely to hold now?

The answer to this question can be given by analyzing who "noticed" a "referendum" being prepared in the occupied Tskhinvali. Even many of the Kremlin media largely ignored the "referendum decree" of Bibilov's puppet.

But the Armenian and pro-Armenian media started to write about this "referendum" and "joining of "South Ossetia to Russia" as a "solved issue".

This suggests that it was the Armenian lobby, at the instigation of which Bibilov had been "feeding" and laundering money for so many years, that forced the puppet to partially "work it off" and go for a scandalous initiative with the "referendum". And at the time when it is not in the interests of Russia, which is bogged down in war in Ukraine, to aggravate the situation in the South Caucasus and confrontation with Georgia on which Russia's transit is increasingly dependent.

Meanwhile, even Armenian pro-Western circles have seized upon the "referendum" in Tskhinvali as "the last chance" to create a precedent to preserve the separatist "Artsakh" on foreign soil. For example, an anti-Russian publication suddenly started hoping for Putin, who was "obliged to make a historic decision" and annex "Artsakh" to Russia. Here are excerpts from the editorial "Artsakh will have its word: Time for historical decisions". (https://www.armenianreport.com/ru/pubs/316455/):

"The head of the Republic of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov, has signed a decree on holding a referendum on the unification of the republic with Russia. "To appoint a referendum of the Republic of South Ossetia on the question 'Do you support the unification of the Republic of South Ossetia and Russia? The date of the referendum shall be 17 July 2022," says the decree.

Such developments were predictable. Back on March 30 this year, Bibilov said that "legal steps" would soon be taken to join the Russian Federation, and called Russia the "historical homeland" of South Ossetians. Well, what was announced happened. It could not have been otherwise after Crimea's annexation of Russia....

It is not hard to predict that Abkhazia will also hold such a referendum....

What will Georgia do? Nothing, it will limit itself to official statements, will express serious concerns, which the Kremlin will only wipe with. Georgians do not have enough spirit to go to war with Russia. Even taking into account the fact that Russia has now suffered very serious losses in the war with Ukraine....

What will the West do? It is very pragmatic. Having seen Georgia's unwillingness to fight for "South Ossetia" and Abkhazia, it will also limit itself to a demonstration of serious concern, nothing more. Even new sanctions are unlikely to be imposed on Russia. This is also, incidentally, because all possible sanctions against Russia have already been imposed by the West. But Russia, as we can see, is not stopping.

And then there will be a historic moment for "Artsakh" as well. It has already come now, but after "South Ossetia" has officially voted to join Russia, official Stepanakert will be obliged to say its weighty word. And it's not about the fact that "Artsakh" recognises the legitimacy of this referendum. The point is the need to officially declare exactly the same - the desire of "Artsakh" to become part of Russia.

Yes, "Artsakh" has no common borders with Russia. But we all know that Russian President Vladimir Putin is capable of expanding his country's borders when and where he wishes. Now, after Azerbaijan and Turkey have unequivocally supported Ukraine in its war against Russia, Putin is obliged to make a historic decision that would sober everyone in Baku and Ankara once and for all.

Obviously, this can only happen after both official Stepanakert and official Yerevan show firmness and adherence to principle. There are no more half-measures, no more time to bend over. The world is engaged in a bitter struggle between good and evil. And we are all obliged to show whose side we are on. Against the background of what is happening in Ukraine, I think the choice is more than obvious...".

By the logic of the Armenian nationalists, it turns out that aggression against other countries and the annexation of foreign territories is "kindness"? Most likely, they are well aware that Russia's adventure in Ukraine is doomed to fail. And this aggression will ultimately turn out to be a disaster for Russia.

However, Armenian nationalists want Russia to "get" Karabakh for them on the eve of their doom, even aggravating their global defeat. For this purpose they are not only ready to support Russian aggression in Ukraine, but also to arrange an adventure with a "referendum" and annexation of the Georgian Tskhinvali region and Abkhazia to Russia. Only to end up with a precedent of annexation for "Artsakh".

Kavkazplus